starting on April 15 PM these from now on will be in reverse chronological order
bet
eam = Definite Optimists player = Larry Summers bet = future macro scenarios in regards to inflation odds = 1/3 for each scenario link = https://www.cfr.org/event/c-peter-mccolough-series-international-economics-lawrence-h-summers Starts 3/4 way down with paragraph: "But look, I have tried to be clear that I think these are real risks"
approved
meme
eam = Team HA player = Deirdre McCloskey meme = The Bourgeois Deal link1 = https://www.mises.org.br/article/3337/como-o-tratado-da-burguesia-enriqueceu-o-mundo link2 = https://www.thecentersquare.com/tennessee/op-ed-what-can-government-do-to-help-poor/article_0a1004fa-97c6-11eb-813a-5fe2159c446d.html link3 = https://infotainmentnews.net/how-to-become-an-entrepreneur/
approved
steelman
eam = Team HA player = Matt Shapiro prop = The people in the best position to make Scott Alexander-like predictions should not do so para = more than 5 link = https://polimath.substack.com/p/on-getting-things-wrong minute =
approved
bet
am = Team HA player = Joel Kotkin bet = a prediction not specifically a bet: the population of Nashville will be 1/3 Hispanic within 10 years odds = none given but implies well above 50/50 from 44:00 to 44:37 at the link link = https://youtu.be/0BI3DOtDyhI
denied
steelman
am = Team HA player = Velina Tchakarova prop = From the Chinese perspective, the Belt & Road Initiative is not just a system of trade corridors, it is "an idea of China and its place in the world." para = more than 5 link = https://youtu.be/xh9pTLHPW8Q minute = 19:25 - 20:58
denied, need to cite someone who takes the opposite point of view
meme
eam = The Free Lunch player = Malcolm Gladwell meme = 10000 Hour Rule link1 = https://medium.com/swlh/how-you-can-begin-making-an-impact-in-the-creator-economy-in-20-hours-or-less-4a28ed5063b8 link2 = https://anchor.fm/sahil-goura/episodes/The-power-of-10000-Hour-rule-ev7ebr link3 = https://www.google.com/amp/s/rahulnsingh.com/2021/04/19/spiritual-practice-how-much-is-enough/amp/
approved
steelman
eam = The Free Lunch player = Jordan Peterson prop = Western Liberalism’s traditional emphasis on the individual is fundamentally oppressive para = More than five link = https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=apuygXKOnpI minute = 12:30-28:12
approved
steelman
am = The Free Lunch player = Daniel Kahneman prop = Psychological thought should not be described in terms of ‘systems’ (with reference to K’s system 1 & 2) para = More than five link = https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-psychology-podcast-with-scott-barry-kaufman/id942777522?i=1000517242972 minute = 41:50-47
approved
steelman request
eam = Tim the Enchanter player = Ross Douthat prop = Douthat emphasizes the policy aspects of the decline in the long-term fertility of the United States too much and not the medical and/or sociological reasons. para = 2 link = https://douthat.substack.com/p/fertility-kings-and-mom-genes minute =
approved
steelman request
team = Tim the Enchanter player = Jane Coaston prop = (1) The uranium mining process creates harms that make it not worth it. (2) The safety risks of nuclear power outweigh the benefits. para = 5 link = https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/should-america-go-nuclear/id1438024613?i=1000518019662 minute = (1) 14:45-15:25; (2) 6:18-6:43, 7:54-8:25, 11:48-12:18, 13:17-13:29
approved
meme request
eam = Team HA player = Deirdre McCloskey meme = The Bourgeois Virtues link1 = https://www.city-journal.org/marijuana-legalization-new-york link2 = https://jimament.com/2021/04/15/who-is-against-bourgeois-values/ link3 = http://www.jewishworldreview.com/0421/husock041221.php3
approved
steelman request
eam = Sam-I-Am player = Lee Smith prop = Iran nuke deal is in American Interest.22 min interview. Brendon Fallon gives the proposition that Lee Smith opposes; Brendon also opposes. para = 1 +2 +2 link = https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kmq2DcKL8Oc minute = 5:-7:30; 15-17
approved, but I probably will be stricter in version 2
steelman request
TimTheEnchanter player = Julia Galef prop = Soldier mindset is useful for protecting humans. The book's thesis is we should usually try to shift more into scout mindset, but chapter 2 is all about exploring Chesterton's fence and being a thoughtful reformer - before we stop being a soldier, we should understand what the soldier is protecting. para = more than 5 (all of chapter 2) link = I'm assuming you have it, having referenced it? minute =
approved
steelman request
eam = Sam-I-Am player = Glenn Loury prop = The racial justice discourse attributes everything problematic to identitarian politics. (Daniel Bessner as D. Advoc for the Woke) para = 5 link = https://glennloury.substack.com/p/why-wokeness-is-bad-for-the-soul minute =
approved
steelman request
eam = The Null Hypothesis player = Ann Althouse prop = Amy Coney Barrett is writing a book just for anti-abortion consumers. The steelman is composed of two parts: 1. Lengthy quote from the article + the paragraph beginning with “What they don’t want to hear” in which she describes what his position appears to be rooted in. This position isn’t strong, but i don’t think it is derogatory. (Which she then takes apart.) para = 2 link = https://althouse.blogspot.com/2021/04/yes-book-claiming-objectivity-on.html minute =
close, but not approved
steelman request
eam = The Null Hypothesis player = Ann Althouse prop = Amy Coney Barrett is writing a book just for anti-abortion consumers. The steelman is composed of two parts: 1. Lengthy quote from the article + the paragraph beginning with “What they don’t want to hear” in which she describes what his position appears to be rooted in. This position isn’t strong, but i don’t think it is derogatory. (Which she then takes apart.) para = 2 link = https://althouse.blogspot.com/2021/04/yes-book-claiming-objectivity-on.html minute =
not approved, because he is not really making the strongest case, being more sarcastic
steelman request
eam = The Null Hypothesis player = Ben Thompson prop = Facebook would be a great platform for audio content. He weaves strong arguments throughout the entire post, but maintains a negative viewpoint of this position the entire time. para = 5+ link = https://stratechery.com/2021/facebooks-audio-announcements-facebook-and-creators/ minute =
approved
steelman request
eam = The Null Hypothesis player = Brett Weinstein prop = Good reasons for riots/protests in the street over the last year or two. (He still thinks these are not acceptable.) para = 2-3 link = Dark Horse Podcast #76 4/17/21 minute = 116th minute
approved
steelman request
eam = The Null Hypothesis player = Brett Weinstein prop = The British home covid tests that are returning 90% false positives can be useful. (His position is that these are not effective enough) para = 2-3 link = Dark Horse Podcast #76 4/17/21 minute = 57th minute
approved
meme request
team = Sam-I-Am player = Bari Weiss meme = i-refuse-to-stand-by-while-my-students-are-indoctrinated Paul Rossi link1 = https://www.theamericanconservative.com/dreher/paul-rossi-lives-not-by-lies/ link2 = https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9491487/Head-NYC-school-punished-outspoken-teacher-admits-demonizing-white-people.html link3 = https://nypost.com/2021/04/16/nyc-private-school-tells-whistleblowing-teacher-to-stay-home/
approved, and this is a perfect example of a K in version 2
steelman request
eam = Team HA player = Joel Kotkin prop = Joe Biden's ability to appeal to the three legs of the current Democratic party - the corporate woke, the activist Left, and the moderate working & middle class voters who make up the largest identifiable voting bloc - will prevent a civil war within the Party para = 4 link = https://unherd.com/2021/04/the-looming-democrat-civil-war/ minute =
approved, and I may quote the article
bet request
eam = TimTheEnchanter player = Tyler Cowen bet = At minute 17:20 or so, Tyler updates his bet from last year predicting number of US Covid deaths, from half a million to 700,000 odds = link = https://www.econtalk.org/tyler-cowen-on-the-pandemic-revisited/
denied. no real bet here
steelman request
team = TimTheEnchanter player = Tyler Cowen prop = Keynesian economics: see this exchange w Russ: "23:38 Russ Roberts: So, one of the surprises to me--I'll pick on myself for a minute and then I'll try to pick on the other side [more, clipped by AK]
denied. need a specific proposition, not Keynesian economics
. The passage would work well for an O in version 2bet request
eam = TimTheEnchanter player = Tyler Cowen bet = Minute 76; The current excellent landscape of music is one of the most glorious parts of 2021 odds = 2/3 link = https://www.econtalk.org/tyler-cowen-on-the-pandemic-revisited/#audio-highlights
approved
steelman request
All is not well with music; Tyler agress w/ Russ' enthusiasm (2/3), but effectively steel mans the weaknesses of our current music ecosystem, namely that artists are required to tour, can't sell lots of albums (with rare exceptions), and that innovation has slowed para = 4 link = https://www.econtalk.org/tyler-cowen-on-the-pandemic-revisited/#audio-highlights minute = 76
approved
steelman request
eam = The Null Hypothesis player = Niall Ferguson prop = This is an opportune time for Scottish Independence. Steelman starts at paragraph that begins “This helps to explain...” para = 5 link = https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-04-18/niall-ferguson-to-save-the-u-k-give-scotland-the-canada-treatment minute =
approved
meme request
eam = Team HA player = Lee Jussim meme = Heterodox Academy link1 = https://dbknews.com/2021/04/01/heterodox-academy-campus-climate/ link2 = https://townhall.com/columnists/loydpettegrew/2021/04/09/hate-speech-reconsidered-n2587621 link3 = https://dangerousintersection.org/2021/04/08/32392/
not approved. I don't think this meme belongs to Jussim.
meme request
eam = Team HA player = Matt Stoller meme = Goliath: The 100 Year War Between Monopoly Power & Democracy link1 = https://www.nybooks.com/daily/2021/04/19/steeltown-in-the-rearview/ link2 = https://mehlmancastagnetti.com/14th-g-the-history-of-american-antitrust-with-goliath-author-matt-stoller/ link3 = https://medium.com/business-insider/how-the-2010s-ruined-the-american-dream-9501f68cb7ef
There is a good chance that this means the more difficult standard for a Kickoff in version 2.0
steelman request
eam = Sam-I-Am player = Jonathan Turley prop = DC should be a state Turley agrees residents should have state services, claims retrocession is better; arguments FOR include the state benefits for residents para = 4 link = https://jonathanturley.org/2021/04/19/americas-micro-state-why-congress-should-consider-retrocession-rather-than-statehood/ minute =
approved
steelman request
team = The Null Hypothesis player = Scott Alexander prop = Trump said a bunch of racist things as President, particularly in the debate with Biden when asked to condemn white supremacists. The paragraph that beings “ I'm trying as hard as I can to be charitable” para = 1 link = https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-grading-my-trump-predictions minute =
approved
steelman request
team = The Null Hypothesis player = Scott Alexander prop = QAnon is a very fringe phenomenon with not many followers. Paragraph beginning “ In ~November 2020, I did a survey of Twitter” para = 1 link = https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-grading-my-trump-predictions minute =
approved
steelman request
Steve seems to cover a lot of explanations for woke management. He makes clear that he is not a fan. Short post: https://www.professorbainbridge.com/professorbainbridgecom/2021/04/why-have-ceos-woken.html
approved
Very solid example
meme request
eam = Sam-I-Am player = Ben Shapiro meme = Awful Pundit semi-finalist - Bari vs Ben!!! link1 = https://twitter.com/benshapiro/status/1383581262632296449?s=20 link2 = https://twitter.com/AwfulPundits/status/1383882827788288007/video/1 link3 = https://twitter.com/AwfulPundits/status/1384162920158822404?s=20
denied. goes too much against the spirit improving discourse. Why I don't want to keep meme requests in version 2.0. I realize I am being harder on this than I was on some earlier meme decisions. Those decisions were wrong.
bet request
eam = TimTheEnchanter player = Jonathan Thayil-Blanchard bet = likeliehood of lyme disease transmission if tick is attached for 72 hours - I think Emily deserves a bet for her robust, actionable, quantitative thinking re dealing with ticks on children odds = 25% link = https://emilyoster.substack.com/p/ticks?token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjo0OTE2OTIxLCJwb3N0X2lkIjozNTIwNTEyNCwiXyI6ImgweURhIiwiaWF0IjoxNjE4ODM3Mzk1LCJleHAiOjE2MTg4NDA5OTUsImlzcyI6InB1Yi0yOTc3MCIsInN1YiI6InBvc3QtcmVhY3Rpb24ifQ.PsRUd1OSRwJVUA4X8QioDabOaf3u-aE56nKfYz73N6o
approved
steelman request
team = TimTheEnchanter player = Jesse Singal prop = The implicit association test is useful for exposing individually biased behavior; "Yeah, that’s true on both the personal end and institutional level. At the personal level, taking the IAT, you can feel like you’re part of this struggle against racial inequality and who wouldn’t want to be a part of that struggle? So, there’s an element of consciousness raising or looking inside of your own soul, really helped by technology. At the institutional level, we don’t really know what works in terms of diversity training, truthfully there’s not a lot of great options. So, if you’re the head of HR and you have a prominent Harvard psychologist saying, ‘this new computer tool is the best we’ve got’, I wouldn’t really blame that HR person for falling for that narrative. I think it’s understandable why they would." para = 1 link = https://wellwellusa.com/more-than-a-fad/ minute =approved
Going forward, would probably be better for an Rsteelman request
am = Tim the Enchanter player = Cass Sunstein prop = As a rule, regulation is acquired by the industry and is designed and operated primary for its benefit. para = 5 link = https://promarket.org/2021/04/16/george-stigler-theory-regulation-capture-cass-sunstein/ minute =approved
meme request
team = Tim the Enchanter player = Cass Sunstein meme = Sludge link1 = https://www.forbes.com/sites/susandudley/2021/03/24/seismic-shift-in-the-regulatory-tide/?sh=bc89e2846398 link2 = https://www.investmentnews.com/alerting-clients-to-dark-patterns-and-sludge-204811 link3 = https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0022242921990070
approved
steelman request
eam = Team HA player = Joel Kotkin prop = Steelmans the Chinese argument to developing nations that the CCP authoritarian governance model is a more certain path to security & economic development than is the Western democratic model para = link = https://open.spotify.com/episode/2VfwwLe8o3DBhiVgJ9cFZS?si=JbPzuaY6TxuAbDsSMouSQg minute = 12:08
approved
steelman request
team = Team HA player = Matt Shapiro prop = Vaccine Efficacy ReportingMatt discusses the common misunderstanding & misreporting of what "95% effectiveness" in the mainstream media para = 2 plus supporting images link = https://polimath.substack.com/p/vaccine-efficacy-and-the-immunity minute =
approved, but in version 2.0 might be better as an R
steelman request
eam = Team HA player = Matt Shapiro prop = Immunity Time Limits - the common reporting of how long vaccine immunity lasts is detailed & then exposed as incorre
approved, but maybe in version 2 should be an R
steelman request
eam = Team HA player = Kmele Foster prop = Kmele is an open borders libertarian. He has made 2 steel man arguments in the most recent podcast, of which I am less than half way through the 3 hour run time. I will make each submission separately1: at 14:50 to 16:50 he describes the convoluted, bipartisan approach to immigration over the southern border that makes it functionally impossible for anyone to come over legally. para = link = https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5hY2FzdC5jb20vcHVibGljL3Nob3dzLzVjM2UyNjRmNzhjMDU5Yzc1YzVlOGNjZg/episode/NjA3OTk1YjFiMWQ3MzczMTczZDY2N2Zi?sa=X&ved=0CAUQkfYCahcKEwiQqMiJ-ojwAhUAAAAAHQAAAAAQAg minute = 14:50 - 16:50denied. He is not saying what a defender of the current system would say.
steelman request
eam = Team HA player = Kmele Foster prop = Kmele describes AOC's belief that US immigration policy is rooted in America's racist carceral policies and our imperialist foreign policy history para = link = https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5hY2FzdC5jb20vcHVibGljL3Nob3dzLzVjM2UyNjRmNzhjMDU5Yzc1YzVlOGNjZg/episode/NjA3OTk1YjFiMWQ3MzczMTczZDY2N2Zi?sa=X&ved=0CAUQkfYCahcKEwiQqMiJ-ojwAhUAAAAAHQAAAAAQAg minute = 1:08:00 - 1:09:40
denied. not going into depth of both the pro and con of AOC's argument.
steelman request
eam = Team HA player = Matt Stoller prop = "the realignment," a theory among some Republicans - especially those in the Trump wing - that the GOP is realigning away from its traditional deference to the US Chamber of Commerce & big corporations and toward a working class party. para = more than 5 link = https://mattstoller.substack.com/p/why-is-clarence-thomas-attacking minute =approved
steelman request
eam = Team HA player = Stephanie Kelton prop = Kelton steel mans the Biden Administration's plan to attempt to "pay for" it's $2.25 trillion infrastructure plan, which of course she believes is unnecessary and limiting. para = more than 5 link = https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bwAz1__Bmjo&ab_channel=DiEM25 minute = 26:40 - 28:34approved, although I would be tougher in version 2.0, wanting her to make the best case she can for the view with which she disagrees.
steelman request (via email)
Steelmanning point request for Rob Wiblin. (This actually makes more sense as a Devil's Advocate point though.) He had Nina Schick on his podcast, and she wrote a book called Deepfakes: The Coming Infocalypse, on the downsides of "deep fakes." Rob in his questions tries to steelman the opposing view--in other words, people who argue that the rise of deep fakes will not cause an infocalypse.
approved
meme request (via email)
Meme point for Cass Sunstein's "Nudge": [three url's follow]
approved
steelman request
team = The Null Hypothesis player = Ann Althouse prop = That Toronto’s tiny houses for homeless are a valuable thing on several dimensions. para = 3 link = https://althouse.blogspot.com/2021/04/so-he-hauled-new-generator-into-his-suv.html minute =
approved, although it is a bit more terse than I would prefer.
steelman request
team = Sam-I-Am player = Steve Sailer prop = Intellectuals should think in Bets and give odds para = 5+ link = https://www.unz.com/isteve/nope-no-riot-in-chicago-last-night-over-mexican-kid-shot-by-a-cop/approved
steelman
team = Team HA player = Wilfred Reilly prop = White fragility para = link = https://youtu.be/eGNTc1qI4A4 minute = 13:34 - 15:20, 41:10 - 44:10, 52:40 - 54:50
approved
steelman request
eam = Team HA player = Dan Senor prop = Guest John Podhoretz argues that the economics of film making will render "going out to the movies" obsolete by mid decade, 2030 at latest. Beginning at 46:43, Dan makes the best case argument that small,art house cinema will thrive. But in the end, both concur that movie theaters will not long survive post Corona para = link = https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/will-we-ever-go-to-the-movies-again-and-does-that-matter/id1539292794?i=1000516480594 minute = 46:43
approved, but in May more likely to be a Devil's Advocate
meme request
team = Sam-I-Am player = James Lindsay meme = Medical-Lysenkoism link1 = https://www.thinkspot.com/online_content/new-discourses/the-dawn-of-medical-lysenkoism/rDun40/Event link2 = http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?553426-Medical-Lysenkoism-amp-Racially-Preferential-Care-Coming-to-a-Hospital-Near-You&s=2e6fa1e2044c869501d4ecc6bdb3be5a link3 = https://theamericansun.com/2021/04/15/secular-decline-in-university-enrollment/approved
steelman request
team = Sam-I-Am player = New Neo prop = Chauvin is guilty para = 25 link = https://www.thenewneo.com/2021/04/08/the-chauvin-trial-so-far-perceptions-of-guilt-and-innocence/ minute =
denied, because I don't see where she states the reasons that someone might believe Chauvin is guilty, she just explains why she thinks he is not guilty
Finally, I will note that team Null Hypothesis found 4 B's and 2 S's in Zvi's post about the J&J vaccine pause (https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2021/04/15/covid-4-15-are-we-seriously-doing-this-again/#more-22468), and I approve all of them.
4/12 Steel man request
team = Sam-I-Am player = Marvin Olasky prop = Humanity has avoided disaster only because of luck. (Marvin claims God is in control) para = 5 link = https://world.wng.org/2021/04/the_nuclear_option minute =
denied. this is a deep issue and both the pro and con are just stated without much argument.
meme request
team = The Null Hypothesis player = Eric Weinsten meme = Intellectual Dark Web link1 = https://merionwest.com/2021/04/06/growing-up-with-the-intellectual-dark-web/ link2 = https://www.albawaba.com/loop/mehdi-hasan-and-sam-harris-attempt-de-platform-each-other-depressing-twitter-feud-1275952 link3 = https://allafrica.com/stories/202104070916.html
approved
steelman request
team = The Null Hypothesis player = Ben Thompson prop = Justice Thomas’ dissent in the Oracle/Google IP case. para = 3 link = https://stratechery.com/2021/google-versus-oracle-copyright-and-apis-copyright-tradeoffs/ minute =
approved
steelman request
team = The Null Hypothesis player = Ben Thompson prop = Taiwan Semiconductor’s position that economics will drive where foundries are located. para = 5 link = https://stratechery.com/2021/mark-liu-at-tsia-tsmcs-100-billion-economics-versus-politics/ minute =
approved
4-13
steelman request
eam = TimTheEnchanter player = Jonathan Thayil-Blanchard prop = Uber drivers cannot be trusted; their choices do not reveal their true preferences. Here is what Julia says ""Another thing I wanted to talk about is that… As you maybe could tell from my interview with Louis Hyman, I tend to agree with him about trusting drivers – or people in general – when they say what they want or what they think is best for them. And not assuming you know better. But after my conversation with Veena Dubal, I thought about it some more and I’m somewhat more sympathetic to her case now that drivers can be wrong about what’s best for them. And here’s why. I remembered what I’ve read about people who sign up for Multi-level Marketing companies, where you buy products from a company like Page 31 of 31 Amway or Herbalife, and then you try to resell them, and also to recruit other people under you to do the same, and then you get a cut of their sales, and so on. Kind of by design very few people who do this can make a profit, and in fact a study by the FTC found that something like 99% of people who sign up for this end up losing money from it. And yet, a lot of these people do it for months or even years, because they either aren’t tracking how much they’re losing, or because they keep thinking things will turn around. So I think that’s actually a proof of concept that people can take jobs that are net bad for them, and that they can just be wrong about how much they’re really making or can expect to make. So I don’t actually think it’s crazy or condescending to posit that this might be the case for Uber and Lyft drivers. Whether they are wrong or not, is a separate question. But I wanted to make that point."" para = 3 link = http://static1.1.sqspcdn.com/static/f/468275/28425363/1617999707097/rs255transcript.pdf?token=zk3X60KzUfPAYYH5wgjKhMSgdIA= minute = concluding paragraphsapproved
bet point
team = TimTheEnchanter player = Jonathan Thayil-Blanchard bet = Humanity will significantly destroy itself with nuclear weapons in 700-800 years odds = 100% link = https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Grseeycor4&ab_channel=LexFridmanapproved
steelman request
eam = TimTheEnchanter player = Jonathan Thayil-Blanchard prop = Anarchism para = 2-3 link = https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Grseeycor4&ab_channel=LexFridman minute = 28:45-30ish
approved, but under version 2.0 would not be an S but would be an O (open to reconsideration, because he has not decided to clearly come down on one side or another)
bet request
eam = TimTheEnchanter player = Jonathan Thayil-Blanchard bet = I think Emily Oster deserves a B point for this paper demonstrating robust quantitative thinking; comparing Covid rates in school districts with 3 foot distancing vs 6 foot, and controlling for confounding variables. They find no significant difference ("In multivariable regression models controlling for community incidence, the risk of COVID-19 among students in districts with ≥3 versus ≥6 feet of distancing was similar (adjusted IRR, 0.904, 95% CI, 0.616-1.325) (Table 3).” odds = link = https://t.co/0gYUCt5IlK?amp=1in version 2.0, looks like an R point (for looking at research) rather than a B, but I can be generous and approve a B for now
meme request:
eam = The Null Hypothesis player = Eric Weinstein meme = Geometric Unity link1 = https://www.vice.com/en/article/z3xbz4/eric-weinstein-says-he-solved-the-universes-mysteries-scientists-disagree link2 = https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2021/04/tuesday-assorted-links-308.html link3 = https://eigenbros.simplecast.com/episodes/eigenbros-ep-111-geometric-unity-analysis-1-_0ZTmJOr
approved
bet request:
eam = TimTheEnchanter player = Jonathan Thayil-Blanchard bet = retail forms of crypto as daily exchange are more likely to fail than succeed (timestamp 1:13:15) odds = 60% link = https://youtu.be/7Grseeycor4?t=4404
approved
meme request
eam = Team HA player = Michael Shellenberger meme = Apocalypse Never link1 = https://pointofview.net/viewpoints/apocalypse-never/ link2 = https://www.conservativechalkboard.com/climate-alarmism-how-did-we-get-here/ link3 = https://cliscep.com/2021/04/11/climate-delay-the-comic-book/
approved
bet request
eam = Team HA player = Lee Jussim bet = Coates Reading Experiment: A between groups ANOVA on the original scores (w/o dichotomizing, excluding Don't Know) produces p<.01 or lower. odds = 99% link = https://twitter.com/PsychRabble/status/1381745663701028864
approved, although in version 2.0 better as a Research point than a bet point
meme request
eam = Team HA player = Joel Kotkin meme = Neo-Feudalism link1 = https://www.newgeography.com/content/007014-feudal-future-podcast-the-future-africas-middle-class link2 = https://cute766.info/the-new-feudalism/ link3 = https://tennesseestar.com/2021/04/06/commentary-why-americas-elites-want-to-end-the-middle-class/
approved
steelman request
eam = Team HA player = Jim Meigs prop = steelmans the FDA decision to pause distribution of the J&J vaccine, then compares it to what he calls "the precautionary paradox" para = link = https://www.commentarymagazine.com/john-podhoretz/risks-and-pandemics/ minute = 6:15 to 9:45
approved
steelman request
eam = Team HA player = David Shor prop = The Democratic Party is overly dominated by a well educated elite class. Shor himself is a Democratic data scientist pointing out weaknesses in his own party. para = link = https://infocus-with-david-coletto.castos.com/podcasts/20339/episodes/infocus-on-winning-elections-by-running-on-popular-issues-with-david-shor minute = the entire podcast but briefly from 30:55 to 32:15
not approved. just going against your own tribe is not steelmanning. Thinks of steelmanning as engaging in a structured debate, making the case for each side.
steelman request
eam = Team HA player = David Shor prop = The Democratic Party is overly dominated by a well educated elite class. Shor himself is a Democratic data scientist pointing out weaknesses in his own party. para = link = https://infocus-with-david-coletto.castos.com/podcasts/20339/episodes/infocus-on-winning-elections-by-running-on-popular-issues-with-david-shor minute = the entire podcast but briefly from 30:55 to 32:15
not approved. See above
steelman request
eam = Definite Optimists player = Megan McArdle prop = Megan strongly favors vaccine passports. She steelmans the opposing view, citing potential for a 'caste' like system, potential economic costs, the use of the passport as a coercive instrument, and it harms those unable to get the vaccine due to certain health conditions para = 4 link = https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/04/03/vaccine-passports-tough-questions-we-havent-confronted/ minute = N/A
approved
steelman request
team = Definite Optimists player = Megan McArdle prop = I see Megan Mcardle steelmaning the case for conservatism in vaccine approvals, before pointing out the 'invsible graveyard' in reference to Tabarrok. She points out that governing bodies have a role to play in ensuring doctors do not unitentially harm patients. She also points out that the proper role of the government in this case may be to halt the vaccine for a short time to absorb the body of evidence before making irreversable decisions. para = 2 link = https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-problem-with-the-johnson-and-johnson-vaccine-pause/2021/04/13/03b23f0e-9c96-11eb-9d05-ae06f4529ece_story.html minute =
approved
meme request
team = Team HA player = Velina Tchakarova meme = Dragonbear link1 = https://twitter.com/Kostian_V/status/1379844382581460995 link2 = https://twitter.com/michaeltanchum/status/1380088764886876175 link3 = https://twitter.com/man_integrated/status/1380578673808580608
approved, even though I lean against using twitter for this purpose
steelman request
eam = The null hypothesis player = Scott Alexander prop = Charter City is a bad idea. (See section 10.2.1 which has steel man in the title) para = 4 link = https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/prospectus-on-prospera minute =approved
steelman request
eam = The Null Hypothesis player = Ben Thompson prop = That Coinbase’s IPO will cause Coinbase to struggle balancing the regulatory & anarcho tendencies of their two key constituencies. para = 1 link = https://stratechery.com/2021/nvidia-grace-gpu-use-cases-arm-and-integration/ minute =
approved