James Pethokoukis puts up a chart showing that over the past 25 years several other countries have lost manufacturing jobs at a faster rate than in the U.S. And of course, manufacturing output has increased.
I should point out that the statistics on manufacturing jobs include white-collar workers, which have been increasing as a share of manufacturing jobs. The percentage of the labor force doing manufacturing production work has shrunk even more.
Manufacturing is in a situation that is comparable to agriculture, where a tiny share of the work force produces a tremendous amount of output.
First we should know the data at world level: What has happened with world’s manufacturing production work and with world’s total manufacturing output in the past 40 years? Then we can ask about changes in U.S. share of work and output. Do you think that we have relevant and reliable data to answer those questions? Do you think that the definition of “manufacturing” makes a big difference? Do you think that we can infer significant changes in patterns of specialisation across countries if we were able to disaggregate work and output by some reasonable classification of manufacturing goods? Hope you have good references to start to answer all those questions.
Well, if there is anything liberal HRC completely missed and Trump got is the WWC really want their manufacturing job economy and communities back again. It was all our government fault that illegal immigrants and the Chinese took away their jobs and communities. And if you roll the tapes of 2008 there were times Obama complained about NAFTA and in 2012 he had the auto bailout to campaign on. Also in 2012 remember his opponent was Romney who had outsourced many manufacturing in his time. So this is not new but we will see if Trump is able to fulfill the promise (probably not) and keep these voters (maybe so with 4.6% unemployment)
I know you don’t like increase participation of higher education but it does seem with agricultural and manufacturing decreasing, where are good paying jobs that only require High School diploma? Even if somebody is good a blue collar position, I still recommend getting a college degree and learning the office environment because their position could PSST in ten years when you have a family to support and the rest of the country tells to pound sand and take a lower wage.
“but we will see if Trump is able to fulfill the promise (probably not) and keep these voters”
Do you think they’ll go back to the Democrats? I suspect we’ll need someone different…again.
Now, there can be success, not in bringing manufacturing back, but prying the strangling hands of government off the throat of the economy. It is bureaucratically hard, and risky, to try to open something new in the areas where manufacturing have fled. That is part of why the companies left rather than innovate. The clawback of regulations will do more. Trump has said good things in that direction, but not enough. It also doesn’t help that these blighted cities with looming pension and city services debt are crouched to leap upon and bleed dry before it can grow any new productive enterprise that opens in their territory.
The econ profs running on about Trump and free trade, never seem to address how to offer something to the displaced other than f’off or move. If they offered advice such as streamlining regulations and trimming back taxation, which, like the closing of the border after the Reagan amnesty, should have accompanied the opening up of trade, they’d probably get further.
As pointed out here before, “Manufacturing” is much too broad a category or label.
The “areas” need to be specified; such as consumable goods production (which might include food processing, e.g.). If one is examining capacities required for certain activities (skills, etc.) that is another mode of classification.
If we were to look back to the decline of drovers and cartage, would we say that “Transportation” jobs declined?
Even if manufacturing employment is going to continue to diminish no matter what we do, there are plenty of non-exportable service jobs that require comparable skills – construction, plumbing, electrical work, HVAC, car repair, meatpacking, etc. Unfortunately, it seems that the compassionate, all-American geniuses running our society have decided all such work should be performed by immigrants, and non-academically inclined Americans can go to hell.
“Even if manufacturing employment is going to continue to diminish no matter what we do”
Why do people say/accept this? It’s diminishing because it’s cheaper to do offshore. Why don’t we rather look at if it’s cheaper to do here?
The problem is manufacturing probably drove the increased ag productivity and provided a place for the “displaced” (and probably often thankful to be so) ag workers to go.
When I was in manufacturing I was likewise offered an “opportunity” to go help a plant in Thailand.
If I thought manufacturing wax being displaced by other sustainable patterns, I’d be more encouraged. But my sense is it is temporarily being dislocated because other countries have been really terribly governed and they are closing the gap. So, eventually the gap will be closed enough that the margins on outsourcing and influx of immigration are tightened and the trends reverse.
If China weren’t so poorly governed, perhaps they would have helped create the next sustainable technology and employment pattern rather than just sopping up half-century old labor-intensive and environmentally negative manufacturing models.
“Manufacturing is in a situation that is comparable to agriculture, where a tiny share of the work force produces a tremendous amount of output.”
In addition, manufacturing is also increasing its square footage per employee. This is a significant change as we tend to think of manufacturing as an urban feature as in the past it needed a lot of bodies. Now as the production area/employee increases plants will seek cheaper land in more rural areas as the size of the local workforce won’t be a driving issue.