John Cochrane on Public Finance

And other things. But on public finance, he writes,

The central goal of a growth-oriented tax system is to raise the revenue needed to fund necessary government spending at minimal distortion to the economy, and in particular minimizing the sorts of distortions that impede the growth process.

This is a very basic statement, and I believe that it would be difficult to come up with a good economic argument against it. What it implies is that using the tax code for social engineering is entirely wrong. Subsidies should be subsidies, not tax credits or tax deductions.

But the implications go further. Poor people face very high implicit marginal tax rates, because of the hard cut-offs on benefit programs. As you know, I favor consolidating all benefit programs into a single flexible benefit taxed at about a 20 to 25 percent rate. Also, taxes discourage work (the payroll tax) and thrift (the corporate income tax and other taxes on capital).

There is still room for disagreement about the trade-off between redistribution through taxation and economic growth. But there are many tax reforms on which economists could agree, politics aside.

Oh, Barf

I am afraid that was my reaction to Luigi Zingales,

Inquisitive, daring and influential media outlets willing to take a strong stand against economic power are essential in a competitive capitalist society. They are our defence against crony capitalism.

Pointer from Mark Thoma. Our media outlets dismiss the opponents of the Ex-Im bank or people who want to wind down Freddie and Fannie as Tea Party nut cases. If you want to stop crony capitalism, what we need are fewer influential media outlets and more Tea Party nut cases.

The Disappearance of the Tea Party

Peter Spiliakos writes,

I suspect that many Republican politicians sincerely see their own party as composed of sober businessmen, plus crazy people wearing tricorne hats, plus crazy people waving fetus selfies, plus crazy people jabbering about Mexicans. The behavior of establishment Republican politicians can be seen as trying to placate/gull the various crazies so that the real work of the business lobbies can finally get done.

Amusing sentences (“fetus selfies”). In thinking about this, I am inclined to differentiate between two aspects of the Republican base. On the one hand, there is the Tea Party. On the other hand, there is the Trump/Fiorina Party.

At one point, I thought that the Tea Party’s issues were the bailouts, government spending in general, and Obamacare. On those issues, I am with the Tea Party and I share their disappointment with the Republican establishment, as represented by John Boehner, Mitch McConnell, and John Roberts.

The Trump/Fiorina party looks different. Trump wants to appeal to xenophobia, and Fiorina wants to mobilize the right-to-lifers. If the Republican establishment would prefer to be softer on immigration and less obsessed with the abortion issue, then I am with the establishment.

Of course, Democrats and the media do not see this distinction between the Tea Party and the Trump/Fiorina Party. They use Tea Party as an all-purpose boo-word. So they treat Trump and Fiorina are synonymous with Tea Party.

But to me the difference matters. And I am struck by the disappearance of what I thought of as the Tea Party as a factor in current politics. I hope that in the next several months the Tea Party comes back and the Trump/Fiorina Party recedes.

In an essay that I saw after writing this, Jerry Taylor makes the case that the Republican race, and in particular Rand Paul’s poor showing, is an indication that libertarianism is weak among the masses. And he also throws some cold water on my own hopes:

According to a survey conducted by the Public Religion Research Institute, more than half the Tea Party is made up of the religious right while only 26 percent—the smallest ideological bloc within the group—can be loosely described as Libertarian. And Tea Partiers have always manifested a large degree of nativist populism.

Have a nice day.

Some Non-Brookings Courage

The Hill reports,

Five top Democratic economists are criticizing Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and the left-leaning Brookings Institution for forcing one of its nonresident economic fellows to resign.

Read the whole thing. I don’t see how Brookings can say it is defending its integrity by caving into bullying. As I said earlier, you can either defend the research or you cannot. If Brookings had focused on the issue of whether or not the study is valid, they would have been fine. Instead, they let Senator Warren discredit the researcher, regardless of whether the study is valid.

You may remember that I did not like it when Congress beat up on Jonathan Gruber, either.

This Brookings incident has made me angry with many people on many levels.

Sanders, Warren, and Power

Two pieces from the Washington Post. First David A. Farenthold writes,

The biggest pieces of Sanders’s domestic agenda — making college, health care and child care more affordable — seek to capture these industries and convert them to run chiefly on federal money.

Sanders obviously understands that health care and education are the New Commanding Heights.

Second, Dana Milbank writes,

It’s a sign of some clout that Warren has Litan’s hide, and Weiss’s, and Summers’s. But if her party answered to the people rather than its donors, she’d have many more.

If you combine Sanders and Warren, what you get is socialism combined with demonization and intimidation of anyone who does not support left-wing views. This is the country that the Democratic left wants to live in?

Hypocrisy and Cowardice at Brookings

The WaPo reports,

Sen. Elizabeth Warren, stepping up her crusade against the power of wealthy interests, accused a Brookings Institution scholar of writing a research paper to benefit his corporate patrons.

Warren’s charge prompted a swift response, with Brookings seeking and receiving the resignation of the economist, Robert Litan, whose report criticized a Warren-backed consumer protection rule targeting the financial services industry.

My remarks:

1. Robert Litan is one of the most decent individuals in the whole economics profession.

2. Giving Litan’s scalp (sorry for the pun) to Elizabeth Warren does nothing to bolster the integrity of Brookings. It amounts to speaking cowardice to power.

3. Go back and read this post. If Bob Litan crossed a line, then Martin Baily crossed it at least as far. The only charitable explanation for the differential treatment of Litan and Baily is that Brookings changed its policies in the interim (something suggested in the WaPo piece, but I do not know any specifics).

4. If I were in the administration at Brookings, I would not give in to political intimidation. I would obtain peer reviews of Litan’s study and either stand by the study or repudiate it, depending on those reviews.

The Basic Social Rule and Dissent

From Elizabeth Warren’s book, as relayed by a review in the NYT.

After dinner, “Larry leaned back in his chair and offered me some advice,” Ms. Warren writes. “I had a choice. I could be an insider or I could be an outsider. Outsiders can say whatever they want. But people on the inside don’t listen to them. Insiders, however, get lots of access and a chance to push their ideas. People — powerful people — listen to what they have to say. But insiders also understand one unbreakable rule: They don’t criticize other insiders.

Pointer from various places–I first saw it from Tyler Cowen.

Remember that the basic social rule is to reward cooperators and punish defectors. I believe that without such a social rule, trust would break down and we could not have markets. However, that does not mean that the social rule is always a wonderful thing. Criminal gangs operate the basic social rule, also–they reward people who cooperate with the gang and punish people who defect from it.

The basic social rule gets applied in politics and in academics. A visitor from Mars would have a really hard time understanding how macroeconomics got into the cul de sac in which it had arrived when Olivier Blanchard wrote that the state of macroeconomics is good. I would say that Dornbusch and Fischer were really good at rewarding cooperators and punishing defectors.

Study Not Needed

Ray Fisman and Daniel Markovits write,

We measured attitudes toward equality by asking hundreds of Americans to distribute a pot of money between themselves and an anonymous other person. Our subjects weren’t making hypothetical choices in responding to the survey—their decisions affected how much real money they would get when the experiment ended.

Pointer from Tyler Cowen. I added the emphasis on “themselves.” That is very different from what redistribution means in political terms. There, it means redistributing other people’s money.

The authors seem to suggest that we should be surprised that rich progressives are reluctant to redistribute their own money. I do not think we needed an experiment to show this. I think we already know from their behavior that rich liberals are averse to redistributing their own money. I believe that surveys have shown that instead conservatives and people lower down the income ladder give larger shares of their income to charity.

Political support for redistribution is costless, especially compared with actually giving away some of your wealth.

Our S.O.B

1. I thought that some Republican once told Senator McCarthy, “Joe, you’re a real S.O.B. But you’re our S.O.B.” But apparently no one ever said exactly that, although Senator Bricker said something close.

2. When President Obama uses high-handed means to achieve his ends, I think of Progressives murmuring that he is “our S.O.B.”

3. Interpreting voter opinion is a fool’s game, on the order of interpreting short-term movements in the stock market. Still, I am going to be a fool, and offer an interpretation of the Trump boom as a desire on the part of some voters for “our S.O.B.”

Why would a Republican voter be in the mood for an S.O.B.? I think it is perhaps a reaction against John, John, and Mitch.

President Obama has used a “words mean whatever I say they mean” approach to implementing the Affordable Care Act. Instead of slapping him down, as an S.O.B. might have done, John Roberts effectively said, “I’ve got your back.”

When Republican voters delivered a landslide in November of 2014, the Republican leaders acted as if it never happened. Instead of acting like S.O.B.’s, Boehner and McConnell have compromised with and caved into Obama like they were John Kerry at a meeting with the Iranian nuclear delegation.

Hence, the longing for “our S.O.B.”

In any casey, if you were one of those libertarians who sensed a yearning for someone who wants to return America to its roots of limited government and aversion to foreign intervention, it appears you might have over-estimated the American voter just a tad. Sorry, Nick, Matt, David, …

Maybe it’s time to give Seasteading another look.

Tyler Cowen after the Republican Debate

He writes,

The two participants who have done the best relating to voters, through the media, are the two former CEOs, Donald Trump and Carly Fiorina.

A priori, you would think that being a professional politician selects exactly for people who can do well in a televised national debate. Yet, from this limited number of data points, it is the CEOs who have the relevant skills.

Politicians make more speeches. CEO’s participate in more business meetings.

Think of making a speech as like playing rhythm guitar on a 1960s pop single. You play continuously, and your job is to give the song atmosphere through your use of volume, tempo, and tone.

Think of participating in a business meeting as like playing lead guitar. You come in for short “fills,” and your job is to move the song from where it has been to where it is going by hitting a few really striking notes at just the right time.

Because there are so many candidates at this point, Republican media events are more like business meetings than speech-making opportunities. So that would be my explanation. I think that the comparative advantage of the lead guitarists will be much less when there are only two or three candidates on stage.