Guess Who Wrote This

Historical experience offers little guide to the social and political consequences of the much greater numbers and more pronounced cultural differences at stake in the postwar migrations to Europe, especially from the Muslim world. The incompatibilities are much greater.

The nub of the problem is that contemporary European civilization is secular, whereas Muslim civilization is religious. In Europe, religion has lost its authority over law, legislation, education, morals, and business life. The Islamic world has undergone no comparable process. There is no systematic separation of faith and state; the family, not the individual, remains the basic social unit. The essential elements of modern European political life – individual rights and duties, and the accountability of government to the governed – are lacking, particularly in the Arab Middle East.

Hints:

1. It’s not Steve Sailer
2. He is known mostly for his contribution to economic biography.
3. His macroeconomic views are not at all conservative.

Answer at the link.

The Case Against Economic Sanctions

Branko Milanovic writes,

They impose a collective punishment, over people who have no influence on the policies for which they are sanctioned.

Pointer from Mark Thoma. There is more at the link.

My view of economic sanctions is that they are an act of war. If you are not willing to declare war against another country, then my presumption is that economic sanctions are morally wrong.

Martin Gurri on Today’s News

Maybe in a few weeks I will have forgotten about Martin Gurri and moved on to something else, but right now I am viewing everything in the newspaper through the lenses he provides in The Revolt of the Public.

One of Gurri’s themes is that elites now make unrealistic promises to the public, and the public soon discovers this, discrediting the elites. So, in today’s WaPo, the lead story is about world leaders denouncing the North Korean test of a hydrogen bomb. The public is going to view this as a government failure. After all, back in the Clinton Administration, they reached a deal with North Korea that was supposed to keep it from going nuclear altogether. The WaPo buries the issue of the Iran deal in a different story, and there the spin is that the Iran deal is a success because Obama paid attention to it while he let North Korea slip his mind. My guess is that this talking point is not going to work with the public.

The second top front-page story is headlined Germany targets a surge in vitriol (the digital version uses different wording but gives the same message). Later down in the story, you read about the New Year’s Eve rampage in Cologne that was “allegedly committed by gangs of young Arab and North African men.” My guess is that the public thinks that the lead story is the rampage, not the vitriol. And the public sees the rampage as evidence of government failure in its promise to absorb immigrants without problems. (Of course, I am over-generalizing when I say “the” public, but you can be sure that I am describing a significant segment of the population.)

UPDATE: A Failure by Germany’s Elite.

Another of Gurri’s themes is that the elites are blindsided by the public. The elites take it for granted that they are competent and that their authority will be respected. When the public revolts, the elites’ first inclination is to go into denial.

China Fact of the Day

George Friedman writes,

most Chinese wealth is concentrated 200 miles from the coast. The next 500–1,000 miles west is a land of Han Chinese living in Third World poverty. The China that most Westerners think about is the thin strip along the coast. The fact is that China is an overwhelmingly poor country with a thin veneer of prosperity.

His main point is that Chinese leaders will be more obsesssed with internal issues than with external issues.