Eli Lehrer on Trends in Job Mobility

He writes,

Overall, employment patterns have shifted — in the direction of increased employment by big firms and a declining role for small businesses and the self-employed. Since 1993, the earliest year for which there is comparable data, the percentage of workers employed by small firms (one to four employees) has fallen slowly, but fairly consistently, from 5.6% to a bit under 5%. Meanwhile, the percentage of the workforce employed by firms with 1,000 or more workers has risen from 35.6% to 39.2%. Average tenure with the same employer has also risen in recent years, going from 4.9 years in 2004 to 5.5 years in 2014. The percentage of workers over 25 who have been with their current employer for more than a decade has also risen consistently, from 30.6% in 2004 to 33.3% in 2014. The percentage of people who are self-employed has steadily and consistently declined over the past several decades, falling from a high of about 7.3% in 1991 to 5.3% in 2015.

I wonder how this breaks down by industry. I would bet that the market share of small businesses has been declining in medical care, restaurants, and general retail. I assume that small farms have continued a downward trend.

More Questions, from another commenter

He writes,

Are there fields where “people hire people smarter than themselves” (smarter, better, faster, tougher, sexier, whatever) and conversely, fields where decision makers are afraid to do so?

Off hand, I would say that in tech fields the advice is to hire the smartest person you can, and if they are smarter than you, then so be it. I never regretted hiring the smartest people. In at least one case, the person climbed higher than me on the ladder, but that did not trouble me. It felt like a positive-sum game.

I would guess that in situations where it feels like a zero-sum game, things are quite different. My guess is that it is more likely to feel like a zero-sum game in a non-profit.

His next question.

Why, for example, are many history Ph.D.s driving cabs (now Uber) and not teaching high school?

I am not sure that having a Ph.D is predictive of having the skills or the inclination to teach high school. I teach at a private high school in a very positive environment where the students want to achieve, and it still can be unpleasant and unrewarding at times. Moreover, as a volunteer, I get to opt out of a lot of the garbage jobs that paid teachers are expected to do.

If I had to make a living, and if you gave me the choice between teaching at the median public high school and working for Uber, then I’d be an Uber driver.

The Low-skilled Labor Market

Andre Spicer claims,

The fastest-growing jobs are low-skilled repetitive ones in the service sector. One-third of the US labour market is made up of three types of work: office and administrative support, sales and food preparation.

The majority of jobs being created today do not require degree-level qualifications. In the US in 2010, 20% of jobs required a bachelor’s degree, 43% required a high-school education, and 26% did not even require that. Meanwhile, 40% of young people study for degrees. This means over half the people gaining degrees today will find themselves working in jobs that don’t require one.

Some thoughts:

1. Too often, popular discussions of labor markets speak as if “supply” and “demand” are fixed, with no equilibrating mechanism. Instead of upward-sloping supply intersecting with downward-sloping demand, these accounts implicitly depict vertical supply and demand curves.

If it is true that colleges are dumping an excess of high-skilled workers into the market, then the wages of highly skilled workers should fall until supply and demand balance there. Meanwhile, if there are so many excess jobs for low-skilled workers (recall Conor Sen predicting a shortage of construction workers), then wages should rise there.

2. I doubt that it is true that colleges are dumping an excess of highly skilled workers into the market. Instead, I think that our society is dumping an excess of non-college-ready students into college. There, some of them at best may be upgrading their skills to those of a high-school graduate.

3. If the imbalance is real, what are entrepreneurs doing about it? They should be working on ways to eliminate low-skilled jobs, while figuring out ways to use workers with college degrees (the latter supposedly in abundance). I see the first taking place. The second, not so much.

Alex Tabarrok on Conformity Bias

He writes,

Today, however, conformity is often counter-productive. Trying to enforce the arbitrary conventions of one’s in-group impedes social cooperation on the scale that makes modernity possible. Conformity also slows the development of new ideas and new ways of doing things–the essence of growth and progress. Even though conformity is now counter-productive the desire to conform and to enforce conformity is buried deep

I think it is much more complicated than that. Conformity is not some dysfunctional behavior pattern left over from our hunter-gatherer environment. Conformity is what makes any form of human progress and social cooperation possible. Re-read my piece on cultural intelligence.

The transition to modernity did not mean that people stopped imitating other people or stopped rewarding conformity or stopped punishing non-conformity. What happened was a shift in who was considered worthy of being imitated, rewarded, or punished. I read Deirdre McCloskey as saying that the prestige of some classes (warriors, hereditary aristocrats, dictatorial religious authorities) gradually declined, while the prestige of merchants and entrepreneurs rose dramatically. Along the way, a vast array of behavioral norms developed in the fields of commerce and politics, giving rise to what we call (classical) liberalism.

An issue that is currently very salient to me, and I believe to Alex as well, is how to sustain Enlightenment-era liberalism in the face of what appear to be powerful challenges. On the right, rising xenophobia represents a challenge (some would argue that the challenge comes from the xenos, who are causing the phobia). On the left, hostility toward capitalism and toward freedom of expression appears to be on the rise.

I share what I see as Alex’s worry that people’s ideas and values are regressing to a pre-Enlightment state. But I think that it is more complicated than just saying that the conformity dial has been turned up.

Interpret These Data

The WaPo reports,

In 2000, about 14 percent of young New Yorkers worked in finance, earning about 77 percent more than average for their age group. Now they make about 115 percent more than average, and their numbers have shrunk to about 10 percent of their cohort.

Pointer from Tyler Cowen.

I am sure that there are many possible interpretations. The one that comes to my mind is that NYC financial firms are hiring fewer mediocre/marginal young workers. This reduces the proportion of young workers in the financial industry but raises the average incomes of those who do work in that industry.

Robert Solow on the Casualization of Labor

He writes,

The proportion of part-time workers has been rising: both those who prefer it that way and those who would rather have a full-time job. So is the number of temporary workers, whether employed through agencies or on their own. So are the numbers of workers on fixed-term contracts and independent contractors, many of whom are doing the same work as they once did as regular employees. These are all good-faith members of the labor force; they are employed but without what used to be thought of as a regular job.

Pointer from Mark Thoma.

My guess is that the most important policy variable influencing this is the requirement that full-time employment come with health insurance. “Casualization” is the market’s way of working around this requirement, which has become increasingly onerous as medical treatments have become more intensive in their use of physical capital (devices of all sorts) and human capital (medical specialists).

Megan McArdle on Economic Dislocation

She scolds,

There is no better example of the folly of the elites than the current fashion for a universal basic income among both liberals and libertarians. Instead of trying to figure out something hard, like how to build an economy that provides adequate work for everyone, the idea is to do something easy, like give them checks.

To which I reply, better to do something easy than something stupid. And if you assign the task “build an economy that provides adequate work for everyone” to technocrats and politicians, they will come back with something stupid.

Leave the hard work of actually creating jobs to entrepreneurs. I do not promise that they will “provide adequate work for everyone,” but they will tend to create patterns of sustainable specialization and trade. As for government policy, my first thought on jobs policy is always to reduce the payroll tax and to de-link health insurance from employment.

Question from a Commenter

The question is

How much of the decline in labor market fluidity is driven by the decline in geographic fluidity, and how much of the decline in geographic fluidity is driven by 2-income households? Especially when the two incomes are in different industries, the problem of trying to match 2 people in a new geographical location gets tough and the opportunity cost of 1 person requiring several months to find a new fit in a new location is large.

Intuitively, this would seem to be a big factor. I wonder what the trend is like in faculty mobility. I believe that there has been a large secular rise in the number of two-professor households, and unless at least one is a superstar, my guess is that mobility options are quite limited.

The Plunge in Manufacturing Jobs in the U.S.

Mark Muro and Siddharth Kulharni write,

globalization, offshoring, and automation have since 1980 liquidated nearly 7 million manufacturing jobs in U.S. communities—more than one-third of U.S. manufacturing positions—as manufacturing employment plunged from 18.9 million jobs to 12.2 million. Moreover, as the chart depicts, while the trend is longstanding, it actually accelerated in the 2000s.

The role of China’s expansion in this process is the subject of a Russ Roberts podcast with David Autor.

See comments by four of us here.
My comments on the podcast are below the fold. Continue reading