Some Sentences

1. From Reihan Salam.

Right now, we’re stuck in a political debate in which a federal government that spends, say, 24 percent of GDP represents tyranny while a federal government that spends 19 percent of GDP represents a free society, irrespective of state and local expenditures, tax expenditures, off-balance-sheet activities, and the cost of regulatory initiatives. The end result is that we have endless debates over spending levels while ignoring, for example, the shadow nationalization of the mortgage market and the perverse buck-passing dynamic created by cooperative federalism programs that fuels the growth of state and local government.

2. From Philip Moeller.

“The best childhood personality predictor of longevity was conscientiousness—the qualities of a prudent, persistent, well-organized person,” according to the two professors (he at the University of California—Riverside, and she at La Sierra University). “Conscientiousness … also turned out to be the best personality predictor of long life when measured in adulthood.”

3. Carmen Reinhart.

it is certainly more difficult for a central banker to raise interest rates with a debt to gross domestic product ratio of over 100 percent than it is when this ratio stands at 39 percent. Therefore, I believe the shift towards less independence of monetary policy is not just a temporary change.

The Minerva Project

David Brooks mentions it. InsideHigherEd describes it.

While MOOCs are basically supersized lectures offered to tens of thousands rather than hundreds of students, Minerva wants to use learning analytics to scale up Oxbridge-style tutorials to seminar-size online classes taught by professors who can work remotely from any location in the world.

…This, Nelson says, will avoid the limitation of the in-person lecture — namely that whatever is said just “vanishes into thin air.”

Thanks to Tyler Cowen for the pointer.

This sounds interesting. I was hoping to create a virtual seminar when Nick Schulz and I used Google+ hangouts. Here is where we discussed Charles Murray’s book Coming Apart.

I liked the seminars when I was at Swarthmore College. Each week the seminar met, one or two students would be assigned to write short papers to be the center of discussion. For example, I once was assigned a paper on the “cobweb model,” in which farmers base next year’s output on this year’s price. After much painful thinking, I denounced this model as irrational. On my own, I located John Muth’s paper, but I could not follow the math. What I came up with on my own instead was essentially the hypothesis of perfect foresight. It turned out, unbeknownst to me, that right at that time the topic of “rational expectations” was about to take the economics profession by storm.

The other characteristic of Swarthmore that I also have championed is the outside examiner. That is, the professor who puts together the syllabus and leads the class is not the same as the professor who puts together the assessment and grades the students.

I hope Minerva is successful with the idea of virtual seminars. I think that the risk is that it is positioned in a sort of no-man’s land, in between the backward model of existing universities and some more radical model of self-directed education that will emerge over the next decade. On the latter, look at these Unschooling Conferences, such as the Trailblazer gathering. Right now, these conferences signal the participant’s weirdness (as Bryan Caplan would predict), but if that should tip….

Chris Peterson is a Minerva skeptic.

If Minerva has higher standards then Harvard, than how is a student who can’t get into Harvard supposed to get into Minerva?

Read the entire rant. I, too, am skeptical. I remember Chris Whittle’s big education venture, called The Edison Project. It was pretty much all hat and no cattle, as they say in Texas. I was wary when he hired Benno Schmidt of Yale for a lot of money. I think if you are going to be an outside force disrupting education, you need to be an outside force. Somebody who has achieved prestige in the existing system is less likely to have the drive and originality to change it.

If I had a lot of VC money to do a project to execute a higher education start-up, I would consult with creative, unhappy professors at low-prestige places to mine their ideas. That said, I would not put them onto the management team. Unhappy people are unhappy people, so I would go with a non-academic management team to keep things sane. You can get inspiration from crazy, unhappy people, but they don’t do well in organizations.

Speaking of organizations, Henry Brighous writes,

While Fisman and Sullivan don’t really comment on this – they simply go on to describe the other kinds of coordination that AA undertakes – it’s hard for me to see how firing an employee simply for explaining how the internal process works to good effect could be efficient. It doesn’t provide any clear, useful incentives to improve overall efficiency. Nor is it conducive to a happy and productive employee culture. The simplest explanation is that Mr. X got fired because his bosses were self-aggrandizing *****s, who saw any public commentary as potential insubordination to be ruthlessly punished, even if this made for a more dysfunctional organization.

To get the context, you have to read the post, and perhaps read the book that he is discussing.

I remember when a project manager at Freddie Mac organized a session where team members could air their gripes. When she had heard all of the complaints about the stupidity and disorganization of the higher-ups, she said told the group that they should be happy that Freddie Mac wasn’t perfect, because if it was already perfect none of them would have jobs.

Indeed, one way to think of an organization is as a mountain of dysfunction. The job of managers at all levels is to try to chip away at that dysfunction. Maybe Henry is correct that Mr. X got fired because his bosses were jerks, but maybe Mr. X got fired because instead of chipping away at the dysfunction, he was contributing to it. I am not saying that I think he should have been fired. I have no idea. Corporate soap opera is complicated.

David Brooks on Inequality

He writes,

Decade after decade, smart and educated people flock away from Merced, Calif., Yuma, Ariz., Flint, Mich., and Vineland, N.J. In those places, less than 15 percent of the residents have college degrees. They flock to Washington, Boston, San Jose, Raleigh-Durham and San Francisco. In those places, nearly 50 percent of the residents have college degrees.

He cites the under-appreciated Enrico Moretti. Read the entire column. I agree with it, particularly his conclusion. However, does the relative strength of Texas in recent years undermine the model in which highly-educated elites flock to Blue locations?

The Right’s Post-Election Self-examination

Tyler Cowen points to a David Brooks column that praises a number of right-of-center commentators who are more prominent in the blogsphere than elsewhere. Some thoughts of mine:

I doubt that Mitt Romney ever considered drafting any of the people mentioned by Brooks to serve on his policy team. Instead, he just rounded up the usual suspects. I thought that President Obama could have put up a list of Romney’s economic advisers along with their positions in the Bush Administration and asked, rhetorically, “What do you think will turn out differently this time?”

I expect that most of the advice to Republicans will be of the form, “Move closer to my position.” So, for example, I would advise the Republicans to focus on the fact that the government has made financial promises that it cannot keep. In other words, we are broke. I would like to see Republicans insist on an adult conversation about the budget, while soft-pedaling other issues.

Left-wing Democrats will tell Republicans that they need to move closer to the “center,” by which they mean the positions held by left-wing Democrats. Social conservatives will say that Republicans need to jettison their unpopular economic conservatism and instead emphasize traditional marriage in order to appeal to ethnic minorities. Immigration restrictionists will say that Republicans need to hang tough rather than surrender. Libertarians will dream of a Republican Party that moves to the far left on every issue other than economic policy.

Which brings me back to David Brooks. He wants Republicans to elevate the importance of young pundits who combine the background, tastes, and style of the liberal elite with some conservative political views. Bobos in Paradise meets Hayek, or something like that. I assign a low probability to the Republican Party adopting that identity.