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The three fields of innovation: Moore's Law (computers, electronic communication); nanotechnology; biotechnology
Major challenges: energy, mental health, terrorism
"Persons with disabilities are rapidly overcoming their handicaps through the intelligent technology of 2009." -- Ray Kurzweil, The Age of Spiritual Machines, 1999
"With electrodes implanted directly on their brains, two Madison patients were able to control a computer cursor and play a basic video game just by thinking about it...It is expected that the so-called brain-machine interface technology soon will allow severely disabled patients, such as those with spinal cord injuries, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (Lou Gehrig's disease) or those who have suffered strokes, to communicate." -- Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, December 5, 2004
"A reasonably priced hard disk can store all the music that you have time to listen to, and with several more iterations of Moore's Law a disk will be able to store everything that has ever been recorded." -- Arnold Kling, April 2002
"the iPod (Fourth Generation), introduced July 19, 2004, which ships with a 20.0 GB or 40.0 GB hard drive, can hold approximately 5,000 and 10,000 songs encoded in 128-Kbps AAC format." -- everymac.com
"I think the first person to live to 1,000 might be 60 already." -- Aubrey de Grey
The three biggest growth industries will be leisure-time entertainment, education, and health care
We will see falling market shares for traditional organizations in education, health care, and entertainment.
Many jobs will have an artistic component to them.
Many jobs will have a teaching component to them.
Many jobs will involve communication/translation.
Some time in the next thirty years, productivity in the United States will start to double every 10 years (in the twentieth century, it doubled every 30 or 40 years).
You will be self-employed for at least 20 percent of your working life.
Tracking technology will bring about a noticeable reduction in robberies and kidnappings in the developed world by 2010. See The Trackable Society
The most dramatic and controversial scientific developments in the next two decades will be in the field of mental health/enhancement.