I found one taker. He bets $20, I bet $1000, proceeds go to charity of winner’s choice. For me to lose, all of the following have to happen prior to the mid-term elections in 2018. I believe my counterparty thinks that none of these things will happen unless there is major terrorist activity in the U.S. in the next two years. In that sense, my counterparty is not a stereotypical Trumpophobe.
– Trump issues an executive order, or gets legislation passed, in response to a terrorist attack which allows for searches or seizures without warrant, or, makes warrants arbitrarily easy to obtain.
– Hundreds (or more) are arrested as Trump rounds up political opponents (including immigrants) in expanded or new prisons which employ unorthodox methods.
– Trump becomes dictator, in name or in practice, signified by either: 1) use of executive orders that are unconstitutional or program TY$100B without Congressional consent; or 2) Congress grants the executive branch the ability to effectively write legislation that can amend the Constitution.
– A person who has met with a Trump official at the official’s office in Washington DC will organize a boycott of businesses or places of worship occupied by one or more minorities, or that person will claim to be inspired by Trump’s rhetoric.
– The emphasis on outsourcing governmental positions to the private sector will in effect cleanse the bureaucracy of persons who oppose Trump policies or world view.
– A new domestic federal agency will be established that performs searches or seizures without warrant, or, using warrants that are arbitrarily easy to obtain. (Note I believe that illegal immigrants are today protected by the Fourth except from immigration agents, so this could apply to suspected immigrants and terrorists.)
– Trump either: 1) postpones a federal election; or 2) detains or restricts speech on the leadership of a substantial or growing political organization not generally considered radical.
That’s easy money, but you won the point the second he set his own odds at highly unlikely.
Btw, when Trump did not pick Romney but also did not pick his other 3 and expanded the sec of state options I’m going to call that a push, although it is really a win.
At 50-1 odds, I take the bet but these are really strong position of Trumpophobia is not likely to happen. These are extreme views and not minor changes like a national stop and frisk movement or increased aggressive deportations of long time illegal immigrants. Or keeping list of mosque attendees in the US. So I expect normal conservative policies here. And I almost think Trump enjoys the media pushback from WaPo. And finally, Trump appears to mostly interested in the spotlight of the media versus the reality of governing. Right now he is going on rally victory tours in Trump friendly states versus getting daily intelligence briefings. The campaign belief that Mike Pence is doing all the real work appears to increasingly true.
Given his behavior the last month, Trump wants simple and easy ideas like the Carrier deal and then take victory laps.
You can explain betting $1000 against $20 to your wife?
I’m pretty impressed Arnold could.
Does any unconstitutional executive order, no matter how slight the overstep, trigger the dictatorship clause? (Or maybe two of them since “orders” is plural?) Given that all the clauses need to be triggered, I don’t think it makes for a bad bet on your part, but it seems like a pretty lax definition of dictatorship.
Hope you can get Tyler Cowen to bet on anything anti-Trump. As I said in a comment to other post, I understand you have high respect for Tyler but I haven’t any because I regard him a liar and a hypocrite. Reading his many posts anti-Trump, maybe you laugh at his speculations, but I see them as evidence not to trust him at all and that he’s been selling BS at GMU, MR and now Bloomberg.
Examples or links ?
I’d be willing to bet from ignorance that you are not understanding him.
In this column
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-12-09/the-worst-kind-of-presidential-corruption
Tyler starts with “Lots of people are worried ….” That’s a lie. Only some anti-Trump people are worried. That’s his excuse to speculate about the many possibilities for Trump to abuse power. I’ve been reading MR for more 10 years and this has been the first time that Tyler has shown to be a hypocrite: do you remember when was he worried about how the next president or a candidate could abuse power? Or are you going to tell me that he has just discovered the entertainment value of such speculation? (BTW, in late 1979 and early 1980, interesting times, I used to do that over lunch with Gordon Tullock).
Tyler writes a lot about several economic issues and I’m old enough to know when his ideas add value by asking the right questions and when his speculations are nonsense (for example his speculations about the Chinese economy are BS –I know a little about it because I spent four years in Beijing and HK as econ adviser to some government agencies).