I should not comment on this sort of news, but there is nothing else going on right now. [ed. so how about just not posting for a while?] Anyway, this caught my eye.
Todd Sandler, an economist at the University of Texas-Dallas, studied four decades of data and found that, for every kidnapper paid, 2.5 more abductions occurred.
I look at this from a spy-novel perspective. In that case, the American intelligence community might send an American to “wander off,” get captured, pretend to be a deserter, and gather intelligence. When his usefulness has ended, you swap five ex-Taliban for him. Of course, you have convinced those ex-Taliban to spy for you.
Surely, the Israelis only exchange prisoners who they believe will provide them, wittingly or otherwise, with useful intelligence when they are released?
Of course, if the terrorists keep kidnapping Americans and Israelis, that means they either (a) don’t know about the spy-novel stuff or (b) don’t think that Americans or Israelis are that clever/dastardly or (c) don’t mind absorbing new spies, because the publicity from kidnapping and exchanging prisoners helps with fundraising and recruiting.
One thought comes to mind: Gitmo is a sticky wicket, so not only is it a limited incentive, when we run out of prisoners the Gitmo dilemma is solved.
My thinking goes the other way: gov’t exist to damage the body politic. So they gladly put five big time evildoers back on the street in exchange for one marginal soldier. If they get 2.5 more chances for this in the future, all the better.
Your spy novel scenario requires an administration that is willing to weather the heat. I don’t see that with the current White House occupants.
I do hope though that somewhere in the intelligence community they wired these guys with so many GPS trackers they are essentially almost Borg. A little detail not shared in with the people who just outed the top CIA guy in Afghanistan.
I’m impressed by this administrations ability to avoid the heat. Barack and company have some of the most dreary economic news in recent times, but take no heat for it. Their spending, political appointees, and non-enforcement of laws is ripe for plenty of heat, but we seem to be in the thrall of honoring a monarchy.