There probably won’t be a technology that has 10x greater scale than smartphones, as mobile was 10x bigger than PCs and PCs were bigger than mainframes, simply because 5bn people will have smartphones and that’s all the (adult) people.
Pointer from James Pethokoukis.
But there will be at least 10x the number of Internet-connected devices as there are people. That suggests that the next tech giant will be some platform related to the Internet of Things. Somebody who makes it easy for lots of people to create useful, secure apps in that world.
“But there will be at least 10x the number of Internet-connected devices as there are people. ”
That’s kind of true already, but it hasn’t meant a sea change in the tech industry. Laying around the house here, we have various phones, tablets, laptops, smart TVs, cable boxes, ebook readers, printers, routers, and digital cameras that are wifi capable. And there are probably some others I’ve forgotten (come to think of it, there’s that portable movie streaming device and a Wii around somewhere). Some are older and mostly sit on the shelf awaiting recycling, but even just for active devices, there are probably close to 10 for each of us in my 2-person household. Of course, the Internet of Things envisions your HVAC system, your lights, locks, and all your appliances being connected as well. For all that, I’m a skeptic. Security concerns aside it seems like a bad tradeoff in cost and complexity vs utility. Which does seem to be the judgement of the market. ‘Smart’ home automation has been around for decades (e.g. X10) and the market penetration remains minimal. If its emergence hinges on the success of the internet of things, I’m not sure there’s going to be a next tech giant.
Yeah nobody is going to fork over $1k (like iphone) to enable Internet for thier flower pot.
So there may be 10x units sold but not 10x revenue.
$2,600
https://farmbot.io/
There can be 10X revenue but because it’s such a narcissistic device, some of that – I’d argue *most* of that – is the Magic Mirror Tax.
Samsung, sounds like.
Misses the obvious fact that people can have more than one connected device. You don’t even have to go IoT. I’ve got 4 personal devices. Not to mention the many shared devices in my household. All traditional computer, mobile, or media devices.
I’m not sure if it’s next because we’re about 10 years away from widespread use, but when it comes: autonomous vehicles.
“…mobile was 10x bigger than PCs” – that’s not even remotely funny. I don’t care how much money changes hands, “mobile” is shrinking all technology into a singularity.
The transition from *minicomputers* to PC was much, much, much bigger in effect. Mobile just provides a severely reduced, half-baked, SPAM-infused Internet appliance. I can replace nearly every appliance we had in the 1980s that doesn’t cook or cool food with a PC.
Mobile? Not even close. At some point, we have to begin to realize that money can be a very poor estimate of utility.