Here’s what I think you’ll find if you track things for the next week. The number of cases will go up by 500-1000 cases per day for the next couple of days. Then the increase will start to decline. The number of deaths will also go up, but modestly. I suspect that by the end of this coming week the total number of cases will be around 6000, the total number of deaths 100-150.
I bet that the number of cases by the end of this coming week will be more than double his estimate.
Consider the following math problem:
You observe a petri dish for 24 hours. The amount of bacteria is doubling every hour. At the start, there is only a microscopic amount of bacteria. Right at the end of 24 hours, the petri dish is filled with bacteria. When do you suppose that the petri dish was half filled with bacteria?
Many of my readers will arrive at the correct answer after a few seconds. I would bet that Roger Kimball would not be able to answer the question correctly within five minutes. And if you cannot do that, you should keep your views on the virus crisis to yourself.
In his own way, Nassim Taleb tries to explain why it is unethical not to pay attention to the exponential.
In a more easily-understood way, these physicians make the point.
If our health care system fails, then we will all suffer. If the hospital is choked with COVID-19 patients, people with appendicitis, heart attacks, broken ankles, and so on will not be able to be treated. This is the picture of systemic risk. Everyone is at risk if there is a systemic failure of our health care system, not just those with COVID-19.
The challenge is this: By following the appropriate recommended social isolation measures, you will be saving lives of not just those at increased risk who are infected, but also those who need other critical health care services, including potentially yourself. You will be saving the lives of people you will never meet.
Who should follow our suggested social isolation measures? EVERYONE. If you do not need to go out for a mission-critical purpose, do not. Again, you WILL be saving the lives of at-risk members of your own family, as well as people you will never have the pleasure of meeting.
This reinforces to my thought process.