From Martin Gurri’s The Revolt of the Public, to be released on Nov. 13, with a forward by me.
In business, as in nature, most new trials fail. This is true of every sphere of human activity. Most new government policies fail to meet their intended goals, for example. Most educational reforms fail. Most scientific hypotheses fail. The trial part of trial an error entails mostly error, unless the set of trials is large and competitive enough to produce a possible success, and the system is smart and agile enough tp recognize success and reward it.
Authority has always fostered an illusion of inevitability. For obvious reasons: if an expiration date were stamped on the Federal government, defection from its mandates would begin today.
our species tends to think in terms of narrowly defined problems, and usually pays little attention to the most important feature of these problems: the wider context in which they are embedded. When we think we are solving the problem, we are in fact disrupting the context. Most consequences will then be unintended.
If [Paul] Ormerod is right, most democratic contests today are fought over phantom issues, and democratic politicians, to get elected, must promise to deliver impossibilities. If, in truth, they have displayed excessive partisanship, it may be because team play between political organizations–the tally of wins and losses–retains a reality to which they desperately cling. . .
The nihilist benefits prodigiously from the system he would like to smash. He’s not marginalized–not a street person, not a foresaken soul, not a persecuted minority. . .a radical ingratitude describes the feeling that makes the nihilist tick.
p. 206, 215, 253, 256, and 285-287, respectively. All are even more interesting when spelled out in context.
I still feel like this Revolt Of The Public is the public is revolting with dumb internet comments. Change the world with increase border control but leave taxes and Social Security, military spending alone. Every once in a while we get somebody taking violent means in terrorist acts but they are still relatively far and in between. Otherwise, politics is like a variety Simpsons (especially Lisa v. Grandpa Simpson stereotypes) focusing a couple issues and acting big on the internet. And wasn’t the belief that early Trump campaign (before November 2015) was an internet comment come to life.
Otherwise, I still think Steve Pinker is right that violence is way down if you look at the numbers and outside of the Middle East the violence is mostly still contained. In reality, we forget many of the battles of the past so we might believe terrorist attacks increasing in Europe compared to the 1980s but that is not true. (Note the primary reason is we forgot the IRA battles, etc.) Or in the United States, even with the increase of school shootings, the number of murders at US schools is still below the levels of 1980s and 1990s. (Yes, it was focused on inner gangs back then). Yes the world is more dangerous than 1994 – 2006 but it is still historically safe.
And finally look at The reaction to the Great Recession in Europe and the world. After years of WW1 and Great Depression Europe was ruled by Hitler, Mussolini, Stalin and Franco. Or even the various post WW2 leaders of Asian like Mao or Pol Pot. Measure that against our modern ‘authoritarian’ leaders that ending women studies at universities and Trump rallies. Again, I find Trump is following Douthat’s narrative that Trump is a Phantom Authoritarian who is bigger on twitter and rallies but governs as an ineffective right center President. (We will have to see what happens in Brazil and most Asian democracies are not moving to this direction.)
“Foreword”