If we really could build regressions that would reliably predict what the impacts of various policies would be, it would be a powerful argument against certain political and economic freedoms. Why go to all the trouble of having a messy and expensive market, or states as laboratories of democracy, when we could just have a couple of professors build us a model?
Unfortunately, I think Manzi is giving Cass Sunstein and his compatriots ideas.
Notice how the nudge crowd focuses on alleged no-brainers such as 401(k) participation and company matching. They take as prima facie evidence the observation that people who are defaulted into the program don’t take the time to opt out, thus they must want to be in. Except they don’t likewise assume that those who don’t take the time to opt in must want to be out.
Well, democracy isn’t just a future discounting tool. It is also a preference aggregator and tradeoff allocator. People often forget that central planners don’t have any more right to rank order outcomes than individuals.
This is why data is so often rejected when its implications would be unacceptable.
Progressive/Democrat politicians and economists believe just that, that their regressions and models reliably predict what the impacts of various policies will be. So, they do argue against political and economic feedom, which just mucks up the results every time.
A regression is the fancy name for chart following. Draw a graph and extend the line or curve into the future. We know how well this works for the stock market.
A model is the fancy name for charts manipulated by mathematics. This introduces confusions of cause and effect in addition to any uncertainty in the charts. The whole thing is wrapped in awe for beautiful, precise mathmatics, hiding the simplistic assumptions. There is always the hope that a few parameters input will predict human activity, always dashed against complex reality.
If only we could predict the success of marriage based on cooking ability.
Our masters are determined. Models will fail, but they will press on. If they can only get it right, then the costs will have been worth it, the costs borne by the peasants while they pay the masters to get it right. The masters, their chldren, and friends will work tirelessly, selflessly, to get it right, no matter how long it takes.