A podcast on Economics for the 21st century. An excerpt:
And I think–I listed, in the essay, four key research areas. And one of them is what I call Firm Interaction. And this question of how the ecosystem operates now, in these various industries, is a really important question. As is what the traditional boundaries of the firm question: what should be done inside the firm and outside the firm? I mean, I’m shocked at the breadth of Amazon. I mean, it’s incredible, the breadth of that firm. I don’t think any theory of the firm that economists–economists haven’t done much with their theories of the firm, because again it becomes an intangible issue of, you know, what should you do inside the firm and outside the firm. It all depends on intangible things, and economists don’t do well with intangible things. But, I don’t think anybody, from Coase, or Williamson, or anyone who has looked at that would have told you that something with the breadth of Amazon would have emerged.
I was referring to this essay.
5) How economics interacts with other social sciences? Look at the changes the last fifty years:
1) As the global economy has grown the last 50 years, why are all families decreasing in size? (Remember India is near replacement fertility levels. India!
2) What is the right political system for maximum economic growth?
3) As family dynamics change how will that effect the economic system?
I predicted the credit collapse in 2008 and I am now predicting another one fairly soon. Just waiting for the trigger. I didn’t think the 2008 crash was going to be that bad. Obviously no one knows when, just that it’s likely going to happen again because we haven’t cured what caused the last collapse and in fact have exacerbated the problems that caused it. Economists, I think can only predict, based on past performances and/or failures. The reason I though the real estate boom of the 2000s was going to end badly, is because I had experienced the 1981 – 1983 recession and the collapse of the condo market in So. Florida. Being a real estate appraiser and mortgage broker for many years surely helped me understand the finance and investment culture but my overall understanding of economics is what gave me the overall knowledge to put it all together. So yea, understand the financial system is very important today.
Credit cycle vs. business cycle. A powerful central banking system uses both bank credit and monetary expansion via government financing to take advantage of market conditions. So the credit cycle could be deemed to create business cycles in some situations and surely take advantage of them during the various periods of the cycles.