The 1960s and today

How does the political and cultural polarization today compare to that in the 1960s?

I was a teenager in the late 1960s, and I was paying rapt attention to what was going on. So I speak from that perspective.

1. The most bitterly polarizing issue was the Vietnam War. From 1965-1968, the most bitter division among political office-holders was Democrat against Democrat. President Johnson and his supporters defended the war. Senator Fulbright and other leading Democrats in Congress opposed it.

2. When Richard Nixon became President and continued the war, with expanded bombing, the issue became more clearly partisan, with Democrats opposed. But a lot of the public pressure to end the war slowly eased, because Nixon drew down the number of troops, ended the draft, and ultimately signed a peace agreement.

3. Culturally, the hippies were a big phenomenon in the late 1960s. They contrasted with working-class youth, who were known as “greasers” because of the product that young working-class men wore in their short hair. But by the mid-1970s, there was no more divide between hippies and greasers. Guys of every social background had long hair, along with those mutton-chop sideburns and thick mustaches so emblematic of the decade. And the hippies grew up, took showers, and got jobs. So I would say that by about 1975 American culture was more blended than separated. And of course back then everyone saw the same movies, watched the same TV shows, and had the same news sources.

4. Today, I would say that there is nothing as politically divisive as the Vietnam War. There is no enduring political issue per se. Like Seinfeld, politics these days is a show about nothing.

5. Instead, what we see now is plenty of political rage, directed against particular individuals or particular groups. The actual issues that attract attention are relatively minor incidents that get magnified in the media. Gone are the common sources of information, so that many people seem to live in bubbles in which those who disagree appear to be demons.

6. Today, the cultural divide is much starker. Social classes have much less interaction with one another, and this reinforces the tendency to demonize others.

On net, I believe that this is a more dangerous time than the 1960s. I suspect that many people would like to see the divisions healed. But the path that led to healing of the divides of the 1960s is not available today. We will have to find a different path.

Country size and quality of government

A commenter asks,

Is there a nation with a population of say, 30 million people or more that has an appreciably smaller government than the US and could be held up as an example that smaller government works for a modern country with a large population?

There is a low likelihood that any nation with a large population (I might use a figure closer to 75 million as the cut-off) will be well governed, whether the government is large or small. My essay on recipe for good government pointed out that two variables can help explain the level of economic freedom in a country: ethnic composition and size (with size being a negative factor). If you are trying to explain some other desirable characteristic, such as the Human Development Index, those same two variables will matter. In the essay, I wrote,

Relative to this peer group of high-population countries, the United States is still the best governed, if we use the index of economic freedom. Perhaps we should be grateful that our government is not worse than it is.

If you want the best government, move to a small country (5 to 10 million people) with an ethnic composition that according to Lynn and Vanhanen will have a national average IQ in the mid-90s or higher. Even if you are looking for economic freedom, some of the Scandinavian “socialist” countries fit that model. So do Hong Kong and Singapore, of course.

Off topic: Democratic Presidential primary politics

If playing fantasy baseball starts with knowing the rules of your league, then handicapping a Presidential primary race starts with knowing the primary schedule and the rules. Three items that struck me:

1. Super Tuesday is March 3, and it now includes California.

2. The Democrats have gone away from winner-take-all contests and instead will use proportional representation to assign delegates.

3. Under Democratic Party rules, candidates in most instances must amass at least 15 percent of the vote in a given primary to be awarded delegates.

Somebody should really dig into how these rules are going to work. I particularly do not understand the minimum of 15 percent. What if no candidate gets 15 percent? No delegates for anybody? That would be funny. Or what if one candidate gets 17 percent and the second-place candidate gets 14.9 percent? Does that mean winner-take-all?

The answer is in the details of the rules. But I have not been able to coax the details out of Google. Keeping in mind my ignorance, here are some thoughts:

Prior to Super Tuesday, there will only be four events: caucuses in Iowa and Nevada; and primaries in New Hampshire and South Carolina. These are supposed to winnow the field, but I don’t see how. If you thought you were a viable candidate before those events, your mind isn’t going to change based on the outcomes there.

Super Tuesday itself features the hard-left states of Vermont and Massachusetts (and maybe Minnesota and Virginia, considering that it’s the Democratic primary we’re talking about), the polyglot states of Texas and California, and the Southern states of Alabama, North Carolina, Oklahoma, and Tennessee.

Massachusetts and Vermont should be friendly to Sanders and Warren, who appeal to white, hard-left voters. California should be friendly to Harris. Also, to the extent that African-American voters are identity-driven, she will contend with Cory Booker for those voters, who will be particularly important in North Carolina, Alabama, and Tennessee. Beto must be expecting to do well in Texas and Oklahoma. If Julian Castro inspires a Hispanic-identity vote, then maybe he gets some respectable vote totals in Texas and California. Virginia’s eclectic mix of Democratic constituents includes Federal government workers, who probably will want to vote for the candidate who at the time seems most likely to defeat Mr. Trump. Assuming Biden gets in the race, he may not win any state, but he probably finishes in the top five everywhere.

The way I look at it, the only way that one candidate can have a clear path to the nomination is with a lot of help from the media. But the media narrative after Super Tuesday might be “the race is still wide open.” From a news outlet’s self-interest perspective, that narrative has the advantage of maintaining people’s curiosity about the race.

Between now and Super Tuesday, the winnowing that does take place is likely to be executed by the media, by exposing candidates’ personal negatives and controversial past statements or connections. This gives an incentive for candidates’ campaign staff to put a lot of effort into feeding the media stories that weaken and embarrass their rivals. I would not be surprised to see “black ops” taken to a whole new level over the next twelve months.

The media also could give a candidate a favorable spin. For example, assume that Harris wins less than a majority of delegates in any state on Super Tuesday, but she rolls up big enough vote totals in California and the Southern states to be anointed the “winner of the popular vote.” If it is widely echoed in the media, such a narrative could enable her to claim the mantle of inevitability.

If it looks as though none of the candidates can beat Mr. Trump, then the media might encourage the arrival of a “savior.” The “savior” could be Oprah or Michelle, but that would be awkward if Harris is still in the running for the nomination.

I still would make my hypothetical bet with Elaine Kamarck, in which I would win if no center-left candidate were to arrive at the convention with more than 40 percent of the vote. One of the possibilities that she designated as center-left, Senator Sherrod Brown, has since declined to enter the race.

Off topic: Fantasy Baseball

This is an annual tradition at askblog. If you want to see previous posts, type “fantasy baseball” in the search box. If you wish to comment on this post, please note that your points might be addressed in some of those earlier posts.

Let me define a reliable player as one who has performed at a high level for the past three seasons.

As a trend, I see a decline in the availability of reliable players of four types:

1. Catchers. Does that mean you should aim to get one of the most sought-after catchers anyway? Is it worth carrying an extra catcher to increase playing time at that position, at the risk of wasting a roster spot on a player who will contribute very little?

2. Slugging first basemen. I am inclined to favor paying a premium for one of the remaining reliable sluggers at that position.

3. Closers. Whether intentionally or not, most fantasy owners are going to be picking up their closers during the season rather than ahead of time.

4. Starting pitchers who account for 200 innings. [NOTE: after I wrote this post but before it appeared, a number of “professional” fantasy baseball pundits commented on this recent development.]

All of these trends are ongoing. But the one that has really snuck up on me is (4). It seems as though not that long ago 200-inning starters were plentiful. And among relievers, teams seem to be spreading the innings out over more pitchers, with fewer innings per reliever.

It used to be that if your league had a ceiling on the total number of innings that your pitchers could accumulate, you had to be careful about not going over that limit. Now, unless the league lowers its ceiling (unlikely), you can probably ignore it. Your challenge will be finding innings, not staying within limits.

I used to think that in a Yahoo league the innings ceiling meant that the ideal pitching staff had 6 relievers and just 4 or 5 starters. Now, that might cost you a lot of points in strikeouts because you don’t accumulate enough innings. It might be better to have 6 starters and 5 relievers, but that approach probably costs points in the ratio categories. I haven’t really decided how to approach pitching in light of the latest trends.

Finally, I will re-iterate that I think that real baseball would be more fun to watch if there were more balls in play, with fewer strikeouts and home runs. My suggestion would be to use a slightly larger and less lively baseball.

Capitalists cannot calculate, either

My latest essay.

But in the real world, the market cannot possibly make the sort of reliable calculations that economists expect from it. Market outcomes are highly contingent on strategies, beliefs, and past choices that are somewhat arbitrary. The market is not as well informed as we would like to believe, which in turn makes policymaking more problematic than we would like to think. Actual markets miscalculate an awful lot.

This is another in my heterodox essays. It is likely to go unnoticed by the back-scratching back-stabbingcabal, but I urge you to read the whole thing.

Yuval Levin on the college admissions scandal

He writes,

So although the scandal revealed by last week’s arrests involves college admissions, it has touched a nerve not because of a widespread desire to get into Yale but because of a widespread perception that the people who go there think they can get away with anything. It isn’t aggravating because it’s a betrayal of the principles of meritocracy but because it is an example of the practice of it. That’s not a problem that can be addressed through more fair and open college admissions. It is a problem that would need to be addressed through more constraints on the behavior of American elites

Read the whole piece. I think that this is a point worth dwelling upon.

Levin sees today’s elites as un-moored from traditional institutional sources of accountability. I would put it this way:

–They don’t like working for a profit, which would enable consumers to hold them accountable. Instead, by working for government or in the non-profit sector, they can self-validate the worth of their jobs.

–They disdain traditional religions. Instead, they invent their own norms in relation to race, gender, the environment, etc. They proceed to punish as heretics those who fail to Keep up with these rapidly-evolving norms.

–They don’t belong to organizations in their local community. Instead, they live dissociated from their neighbors, if not walled off from them completely. Their spirit of generosity is limited to the use of other people’s money.

The piety display

M. “Lorenzo” Warby writes,

If a cognitive identity is based on adherence to a set of opinions (that is, publicly expressed or endorsed beliefs) that are felt to generate prestige, to justify a collective and internalized sense of approval and admiration towards their adherents, then opinions which contradict those prestige opinions cannot also generate prestige. They must generate negative prestige. If X generates prestige, then Contrary-X must generate negative prestige and so be subject to the opposite of public admiration (within that cognitive milieu), which is stigmatization. Indeed, avoiding such stigmatization can become a powerful reason to engage in affirming the prestige opinions (or, at least, not openly contradicting them).

Pointer from Lorenzo himself, who did me the honor of leaving a comment on yesterday’s post. In the first part of the essay, he argues that the term “piety display” is more accurate than “virtue signaling.” Read the essay to see why.

The three-axes model would say that conservatives and libertarians also engage in piety displays. When conservatives speak of the fragility of civilization and describe it as threatened by barbarism, that can be thought of as a piety display. When libertarians highlight the encroachment of the state on liberty, that can be thought of as a piety display.

Lorenzo argues that in a time of rapid change, conservatives are at a disadvantage.

visions of the imagined future naturally gain increased power. In particular, politics based on a moralized vision of the future have an inherent advantage that was greatly magnified. For the problem of the past was not only that it now looked so different, but that the past (being sequences of human striving) is inevitably morally messy. Conversely, the imagined future can be as pure as one wants. So, if one wants opinions that provide some guarantee of cognitive status, those based on the politics of the imagined future have a near unbeatable cachet. Especially as it is easy to confuse moral intensity with moral superiority, and even use the former as a marker of the latter.

The perennial appeal of socialism feeds on the information-economizing purity advantage of the imagined future. Rarely precisely defined, socialism becomes a righteous catch-all for the aspiration to attain some profoundly better society, without grappling with practical difficulties or past failures along the path.

The essay concludes,

Given that the underlying drivers of the demand for prestige opinions that generate and protect status-asserting cognitive identity are not likely to go away soon, the prognosis for the health of freedom of thought, science, public debate and democracy in Western societies, or for the competent functioning of institutions, is not good.

I think that the symmetry among libertarians, progressives, and conservatives breaks down when it comes to what I call intimidation. Conservatives and libertarians do not seek to de-platform people with different ideas. They do not seek to get CEOs fired for having the “wrong” opinions. They do not seek to stamp out intellectual diversity in higher education or journalism.

There has been a fascist left for a long time. We saw it in the Soviet Union, in China, in Cuba, and in Venezuela. But until recently, the Anglosphere has rebelled strongly against it. When I was young, Newsweek Magazine alternated columns by Paul Samuelson and Milton Friedman. College faculty voted Democrat more than Republican, but conservatives did exist in academia, and no professor was driven off campus for teaching while white.

When I was growing up, the people who might be de-platformed or intimidated were on the left, if they could be connected in some way to the Communist Party. My mother was brought before the House Un-American Activities Committee in 1957 for her Communist associations in the 1930s.

Back then, the term for abusive personal attacks was “McCarthyism,” referring to a Republican. Back then, the left was against McCarthyism. Now it practices it. Back then, the left read George Orwell’s 1984 as a warning. The SJWs read it as a how-to manual.

Households up, population down

A commenter writes,

The best explanation that I have seen is that the number of occupants per residence has declined. The number of single occupant tenants has rapidly increased as a share of residents.

This is a story that could reconcile rising rents and house prices in what Kevin Erdmann calls the “closed-access” cities with a loss of population in those same cities. Although young singles may double up to save on rent, this is probably swamped by the decline in households with children. And there is a general, long-term trend of much more housing space per person in the U.S.

My guess is this:

1. In open-access cities, the result is many more people and much more space per person.

2. In closed-access cities, the result is slightly fewer people and only slightly more space per person.

Tyler Cowen on the SJW mentality

He writes,

Many social justice warriors seem more concerned with tearing down, blacklisting, and deplatforming others, or even just whining about them, rather than working hard to actually boost social justice, whatever you might take that to mean. Most of that struggle requires building things in a positive way, I am sorry to say.

What concerns me about SJWs is their reliance on intimidation. To use a current example, AIPAC always aimed to be strictly non-partisan. It used to be able to get ambitious Democrats to speak at its convention. No more. The SJWs have successfully delegitimized AIPAC among Democrats. Going forward, Democratic Congressmen will think twice about receiving visitors from AIPAC. AIPAC has been castrated.

Maybe you don’t care much for AIPAC. I have never attended the convention, and I wouldn’t call myself a fan. The point I am making is not about AIPAC, but about the manner in which it was shot down.

If SJWs can scare Democrats away from AIPAC, then they can intimidate anybody. If this is what these folks can do as a cult minority, imagine the climate of fear we will live under once they seize the apparatus of the state.

Martin Gurri on the protest mentality

He writes,

I am concerned with the public’s temper rather than the policy trimmings of the elites. And the public never takes yes for an answer. Does anyone suppose that OWS protesters were satisfied with regulations ordained from the top of the political establishment? Or that Black Lives Matter militants have been mollified by police reforms, any more than Tea Partiers were by the sequester?

Protests triumph or peter out – but the public is never satisfied. I can’t think of a single instance of an insurgency disbanding because of policy concessions.

The post is nominally a response to Noah Smith’s critique, but it is a wide-ranging discourse on human nature and our current condition.

I would claim that the anti-war movement of my youth was able to take yes for an answer. That is, when the Vietnam War ended, the protest movement ended as well.

In fact, a standard view of the 1960’s and 1970’s is that over time the radicals and protesters became “co-opted” and joined the elites. Some people expect history to repeat itself. Gurri himself writes,

The generation of elites that was young when industrial giants roamed the earth is now failing, literally and physically. Its enjoyment of the large corner offices within the pyramid will soon go the way of all flesh. Many expressions of extreme political despair coming from the elites can be ascribed to a panic of mortality. Young people are displacing old. The latter have had their day. Of the young, an analyst should say as little as possible, other than to wish them the best of luck.

We have seen on the left a meme of “pass the baton” to the younger generation. Perhaps that is sometimes the right thing to do. But when I hear the strains of “Tomorrow belongs to me” coming from today’s smug anti-capitalist social justice activists, I believe that one must put up some resistance.