This theory predicts that overconfidence in one’s own beliefs leads to ideological extremeness, increased voter turnout, and stronger identification with political parties. Our predictions find strong support in a unique dataset that measures the overconfidence, and standard political characteristics, of a nationwide sample of over 3,000 adults. In particular, we find that overconfidence is the most reliable predictor of ideological extremeness and an important predictor of voter turnout in our data.
One of the most important cognitive biases is to over-weight your own experience and to under-weight the opinions of others who have different experiences. In a post last week, I talked about how I used to interview job candidates. One commenter correctly pointed out that people tend to over-estimate what they learn by interviewing job candidates relative to other sources of information.
I believe that overconfidence gets strongly rewarded in the realm of politics and punditry. Admitting that you might be wrong seems to hurt your credibility. Insisting that the other side is wrong is the best way to gain a following.
Just in politics and punditry? I work in finance where, in theory, job performance is highly measurable. I can tell you that overconfidence is greatly rewarded (provided it is done skillfully…it’s not as simple as simply saying you’re the best, which may work in politics).
How confident are you that admitting that you might be wrong hurts your credibility?
My question is largely rhetorical – I am inclined to agree with you.
A counterpoint is that one of the main reasons I am such a fan of this blog is your extreme humility and unassuming style. You are unafraid to express doubt and uncertainty in your own opinions and I find your openness and honesty refreshing.
I think these qualities are underrated.
I have rarely encountered these qualities in the mainstream media. Even amongst bloggers it is rare. Tyler Cowen, Scott Alexander and yourself are the first three that spring to mind.
Have you read Jeff Goldberg’s Obama foreign policy article? In terms of overconfidence, he essentially did admit the Libya mistake while sitting in office. However historically speaking most leaders wait until they leave office to admit mistakes such as Reagan’s admitting Marines in Beriut was a mistake.
Also, doesn’t the business world reward overconfidence? Didn’t the leaders of the big banks get heavily rewarded for overconfidence in their business in 2004 – 2007? I don’t see how the market really punished them?
Ha ha ha ha.
Obama admitted Libya was a mistake but blamed it on others (his advisors, the Europeans). Nothing is ever his fault.
While I agree about sources of bias, I think that your three axis approach leads to the conclusion that there is no objective truth, just prejudice. Complex phenomena, such as the macroeconomy or global climate, may be beyond human understanding , but we can pursue truth as long as we understand our limits.