It’s March again, and my thoughts have already turned to fantasy baseball. I think that what I wrote last year pretty much stands up. A few additional notes:
1. Usually, what you want from your top picks is low down side. This year, there is an odd case. Giancarlo Stanton, after being traded from a pitcher’s park to the homerun-friendly Yankee Stadium, could, if all goes well for him, hit 20 more home runs than anyone else. Since he is not even in the top half of the first round in most drafts, he seems to me to have some upside. I am not saying that the upside makes up for the downside risk that he gets hurt or that he fails to even lead the league in home runs, but it will be interesting to see how he pans out.
2. The other thing that strikes me this year is that there are three catchers that interest everyone–Sanchez, Posey, and Contreras–and the rest of the catchers almost all fall to garbage time. In shallow leagues, often there is very little difference in performance between middling players and players you can pick up in garbage time. So it may make sense to spend the resources to get one of the popular catchers and settle for a couple of additional garbage-time players elsewhere.
3. I believe in thinking very carefully about the players I want on my bench. That means having a good idea of the players that become available in garbage time. It also means keeping in mind that an empty roster spot has value, particularly in auction formats when it gets to garbage time. Filling out your roster early in an auction is usually wrong.
4. Your bench strategy should align with your overall strategy. Or if your overall strategy is to seek value where it arises, then your bench strategy should align with what emerges.
Ordinarily, I like having a catcher on the bench, but if you spend money or a high draft choice on one of the top three catchers, then spending a roster spot on a second catcher is less appealing. Also, the first couple of weeks of the season, your number one catcher may not miss many games, so you could wait until the season gets going to pick up your second catcher.
Suppose your bench strategy is to go for hitters with upside, typically, young hitters you hope will have a “breakout.” then you want your starting lineup to be a mix of stars and lesser players, not a lineup that is so solid that your breakout can’t break in.
Or suppose your bench strategy is to go for a lot of pitchers, figuring that pitchers are volatile and you will sort out who is having a good year as the season progresses. Honestly, I have a hard time seeing the difference between starting pitchers that are ranked around twentieth best and those that you can pick up in garbage time. One reason to go for quantity rather than quality in pitchers is that you might want to bench pitchers when they visit Yankee Stadium or Colorado or go up against the Astros, Dodgers, or Cubs.
Are you playing roto or head to head? Redraft, keeper, or dynasty? How many teams are in your league? Is it a 1 or 2 catcher league? Is it standard 5×5 or are there different categories? Dan asked me for my take on this article and It’s hard to agree or disagree with an article like this without knowing the answers to these questions. Thanks and enjoy the season.
In my post on the topic in a prior year I emphasize that everything starts with the rules. I did not repeat that this year.
Do you play fantasy football too? Have you thought about efficient markets and fantasy baseball?
I.e., if you knew the market prices (via aggregating other auctions from this year) for a standard Yahoo! league, can you think of a better strategy than trying to maximize the difference between those values and what you pay (obviously there are positional considerations, a backup at one spot — even if he’s good value — might not be worth as much as starter somewhere else)?