I started playing Rotisserie Baseball about 30 years ago. I have taken some years off since then, but I’ve played more years than not. Anyway, this form of amateur Moneyball is something I have thought about, so if you are interested, read on.

Some terminology I like to use (in italics):

You are allocating resources.

Your high-end picks use a lot of resources. These are the players that you pick in the first three rounds of a draft or that cost you $30 or more in an auction (assuming a $260 total budget).

You pick up players using very few resources during garbage time. This is the last few rounds of a draft, or the point in an auction where players are going for $1 or $2. It is important to approach garbage time with a plan and with attention.

If waiting until garbage time to fill a position means that you might get a player who contributes almost no fantasy points, then that position is deep. If you can still get a contributor in garbage time, then the position is shallow. If there is a high ratio of owners to real-world teams (as in a 12-owner fantasy league that is limited to just American League teams), then the entire league will be deep. In the standard Yahoo format, the entire league is shallow. This year, it seems particularly shallow at shortstop, meaning that it seems easy to pick up a contributor at shortstop, even if you wait until garbage time.

When you reach for a player, that means drafting the player a bit earlier than he would ordinarily be drafted, or paying a bit more than he would ordinarily be sold for in an auction.

There are three important principles about a fantasy baseball draft or auction.

P1. The league rules matter.

The rules affect the relative value of different skills. In hitting, start with the standard five categories of BA, R, HR, RBI, and SB. Suppose that the rules in your league include all five skills and also count OPS. This dilutes the value of SBs, and so it raises the value of a cleanup hitter relative to that of a leadoff hitter.

In pitching, start with the standard categories of W, K, S, ERA, WHIP. If your league were not to use K and were to use only the other four categories, then this would raise the value of closers relative to starting pitchers. Middle relievers only get picked in garbage time. On the other hand, if the league includes the five standard categories and adds holds as a sixth category, saves are diluted, so you should devote much less resources to closers, and those resources should instead go to middle relievers. Alternatively, if the sixth category is quality starts, then once again saves are diluted, and some resources should shift from closers to starting pitchers.

There may be minimums and maximums in a league. If there is a minimum number of innings pitched, then this nudges up the value of some of the lesser-quality starting pitchers. If there is a maximum number of innings pitched, then this nudges down the value of lesser-quality starting pitchers, particularly those without high ratios of strikeouts per nine innings.

The rules affect depth of position. As noted, limiting the pool to just one of the two major leagues makes for a deep league. In a mixed league (both leagues are in the pool), a league with 15 owners is not as shallow as a league with 12 owners, and a league with 20 owners is deep.

Roster requirements are another factor affecting depth. Requiring two catchers makes a decent catcher more valuable. Adding a middle infielder makes a decent middle infielder more valuable. Adding a corner infielder works similarly. Having 5 outfielders instead of 3 makes a decent outfielder more valuable.

Depth matters because it changes the value of superstars relative to very good players. This matters more in auctions, because with an auction you have a choice about how to allocate your resources between players that would go in the first round in a draft and other high-quality players.

Think in terms of a choice between having one superstar and one garbage-time player vs. having two very good players. If the position is deep, the garbage-time player will contribute almost nothing, so it tends to favor getting two very good players. Two catchers with 60 RBI each will give you 20 more RBI than a top catcher who drives in 85 and a garbage-time catcher who drives in 15. If the position is shallow, then the garbage-time player will not be much worse than the very good player. Two catchers with 60 RBI each will give you 20 fewer RBI than a top catcher who drives in 85 and a garbage-time catcher who drives in 55. So shallow leagues tend to make superstars more valuable relative to very good players.

I also think that a shallow league lowers the value of single-category hitters, particularly base stealers. Let me use Billy Hamilton as an example. In a deep league, where Joe Garbage contributes nothing, then having Billy Hamilton instead of Joe Garbage is a big plus, perhaps worth 5 or 6 fantasy points. However, in a shallow league, in which Joe Garbage gives you 20 HR and 70 RBI, then Billy Hamilton’s deficits in those categories are more than enough to offset his steals. So in my opinion, Billy Hamilton should be worth less than nothing in the shallow Yahoo league. I would pay not to have him in my lineup. But other Yahoo owners clearly do not see it that way.

P2. Luck matters a lot. Players will get injured, players will have off years, other players will have career years, and the players you pick up during the season could contribute a lot or contribute nothing. In the end, just a few random RBI may make a huge difference in the standings.

You can try to reduce bad luck by aiming for low down side with your high-end picks. Don’t use a high-end pick to take a player without a proven track record, a pitcher with a “twinge” during Spring training, or a player moving to an adverse ballpark (a pitcher moving to Boston or a hitter moving to San Francisco).

You can try to increase good luck by using garbage time to choose players with high upside potential. Don’t waste roster space on an established player who will just sit on your bench. Instead, gamble on a prospect, or on a young player who has disappointed so far but could still “break out,” or on a star player coming back from injury, or on a set-up reliever who might be promoted to closer under some scenario.

P3. The ease of execution of a strategy is inversely related to the number of owners attempting that strategy. If your strategy is popular, then you will find your resources stretched as you try to execute it. If it is unique in your league, then it will be easy to execute.

Let us assume a standard Yahoo league. 12 owners pick from both major leagues. There are 3 generic outfielders, one hitter at each of the other 5 positions, and 2 utility players. There are 2 starting pitchers, 2 relief pitchers, and 4 other pitchers. You have a bench with 5 players and a disabled list than can hold 2 players. You can move players in and out of the lineup daily. There is a limit of 1400 total innings pitched.

The Yahoo league is shallow. It is very shallow in terms of closers. The innings limit makes it hard to pile up strikeouts and wins just by using “innings-eaters.”

You should think about how you want to use your bench. If you use it for hitters, they will mostly sit. That said, I think that there is a case to be made for having a regular catcher on the bench. A normal catcher might give you 130 starts, and if you can get another 25 or so out the bench catcher that should be good for a couple more HR’s, 8 R, and 10 RBI, all of which can mean something in a competitive league.

Also, on any given day you will be benching some of your starting pitchers, so having one or two high-strikeout, low-ratio relievers to come off the bench and replace them can be worth something. But the bench is also a place to stash the high-upside players that you hope will turn out to be lucky picks. In fact, the Yahoo league is so shallow that you might pick a high upside-player before you pick, say, your starting shortstop.

With an auction format, you can choose the number of first-round players to go for. You can try to get 2 or 3 of them, and then settle for garbage-time players in some of your starting lineup. Alternatively, you can get 0 first-round players, in effect trading your first-round pick for cash that can be used elsewhere. You should be able to obtain a more solid starting lineup.

Whatever your auction strategy regarding first-rounders, I think it is bad to get in a position where 40 total players have been taken and your remaining budget is really high or really low relative to that of other owners. If you are an outlier on the low side, your roster will probably end up with some dead spots on it. Even worse is to be an outlier on the high side, in which case you will end up wasting a lot of your money on ordinary players while watching other owners get equivalent players cheaply.

Next, consider category strategies.

C1. Cheap-hitter strategy. You sacrifice HR and RBI to focus on the other three hitting categories. You reach for leadoff skills, such as outfielders who are better at stealing based than at hitting for power. Your utility players might be middle infielders rather than the more typical outfielders and first basemen.

If all goes well, you will get enough points in BA, R, and SB to make up for your deficits in HR and RBI, while spending much less on hitting than other owners spend. That leaves you with a large budget to use to try to dominate the pitching categories.

C2. Ignore batting average strategy. There is a handful of batters who hit below .260 yet have some pretty spectacular “counting stats.” You reach for those batters and you pass on the BA leaders. You hope to rack up a lot of hitting points while spending only average resources on hitting. As appealing as this may be, it is particularly vulnerable to collapsing if another owner is targeting the same players.

C3. Sacrificing SB’s to focus on other categories. This is not a low-budget strategy. But you let the other owners spend money on base stealers (see my remarks about Billy Hamilton, above) and hope to get a good return on your (high) investment.

C4. Cheap-pitcher strategy. You reach for closers and you fill out your pitching staff with low-ratio middle relievers. The idea is to get enough points in saves and the ratio categories to make up for being at the bottom in wins and strikeouts, but with a lot more money than other owners to spend on hitting.

C5. A pitching category-based strategy that sacrifices saves in order to focus on the other four categories. This works well if starting pitching goes cheap, which can happen if several owners are trying strategy C4. It has several pitfalls. You might run up against the innings limit. You might have trouble keeping your ERA and WHIP ratios down.

My preferred approach is to start out trying to be competitive in all categories. You take value where you find it. If two or three owners are trying C1, then you will end up executing C3 relatively inexpensively. If several owners are trying C4, then you will find yourself pleased with the low ERA and WHIP you can get while executing C5.

This brings us to tactics. My main tactical suggestion is, “Always know your backup plan.” For each unfilled position on your roster, have at least three players on your list to fill that position. As players get taken, you need to keep replenishing this list. Knowing what comes next at a position if you do not get the player you most desire will help you prioritize.

In a draft, if you are near one of the endpoints, then it probably is worth paying attention to the rosters of the nearby owners. That is, if you draft 10th, watch the rosters of the owners drafting 11th and 12th. Suppose that it’s the 7th round and you decide you want your next two picks to be a third baseman and a catcher. If the 11th and 12 owners both have catchers, then you can almost surely put off the catcher until the 8th round.

In an auction, you might want to get a sense of what other owners are up to, so that you can adjust your own plans. Early in the auction, try nominating what I call “shark bait,” meaning a pitcher whose value primarily comes from saves and a hitter whose value primarily comes from steals.

If the sharks are biting on the closer and his price gets bid up, then you can infer that the C4 strategy is popular among some of the other owners. This means that you will have to fight to get hitting, but you can hope to pick up good starters for less than you might have to pay otherwise.

If the sharks are biting on the base stealer, then you can infer that the C1 strategy is popular. Prepare to have to pay up for good pitching, but look for the opportunity to get power hitters for less than what you might have expected to pay.

Further along in the auction, once you have a player at a position, nominate other players at that position. If I have a third baseman, then I want to see other owners use up money on third basemen.

Some owners seem to insist on specific players, and they are willing to bid almost anything to get them. If you have the guts, you can bid against them, knowing that if they fold you will be unhappy. If you can execute that, great. Just don’t be the owner against whom it is executed. That is, don’t put yourself in a position where you feel like you have to get player X regardless of price.