annual global production of lithium has more than doubled from from about 16,000 metric tons in 2004 to over 36,000 metric tons by 2014. Even with this rise in quantity produced, the price of a metric ton of lithium carbonate has risen from $5,180 in 2011 to $6,600 in 2014.
He cites a report from Goldman Sachs on emerging themes, one of which is “Lithium is the new gasoline.” (The other claims in the report are also provocative.)
Changing our energy technology does not automatically eliminate scarcity. It is instead a form of substitution.
That sure doesn’t sound like a lot, compared to “millions of barrels/day” for instance, especially considering I don’t have a flask of gasoline in my pocket right now.
It isn’t a lot, especially when you consider that of that 36,000 metric tons only about 16% of it is lithium.
I will also note that lead is even less abundant in the Earth’s crust than lithium on a ppm basis, and we mined over 5 million metric tons of that in 2012.
Mining tends to be dependent on concentrations not in ppm in crust.
quick calculation-
If lithium is 6k per ton and a Tesla uses 60KG and costs $35,000 (~ their goal for the next generation of affordable sedans), then the cost of Lithium in a Tesla is = 1% of the final cost.
If my interpretation of Yancy’s statement above is correct then the cost rises to ~6%, so ~ $2,100. Gas costs ~ $3 a gallon and at 10k miles a year, 35 miles to the gallon a car burns ~$8800 of gasoline in 10 years. For Lithium to be the “new gasoline” you have to replace the battery every 2.5 years.
actually scratch that, I used the final cost for gasoline after all refining and delivery costs, but not the same for lithium.
60 Kilograms? That’s only 11% of the high-range Tesla-S with is over half a metric ton. If that’s true then it’s only affordable because it’s hardly electric at all then. Lithium batteries are expensive and heavy. Meanwhile, 11 gallons of gas – out of which you can get a similar range – is only half that lower weight, only 30 kilograms.
Link? 60 kg (63) number straight from the Taylor link above.
Gas to lithium weights are meaningless since neither gets you anywhere without a motor.
Gasoline is consumed in use, whereas lithium is not. That seems like an important difference.
But USB chargers sure seem like a consumable in my house.
Indeed, there is very little that is nonrenewable. Presumably there will be a good recycling stream for lithium batteries. Nonetheless, it is conceivable that lithium is too scarce to power 5 billion cars at a price that 5 billion people can afford.
But gasoline is also renewable in the sense that it can be produced with carbon, water, air, and enough energy.
If you want to talk about nonrenewable, look at a hydrogen fueled society. It better be completely leak-proof from source to fuel cell. Hydrogen readily gets above earth escape velocity, so if any gets loose before it is burned, it is gone forever.
Cue the future AGD crisis- Anthropogenic Global Dehydration.