The demand for pseudoscience leads to unwise policy choices. Although the CBO is nonpartisan, the presentation of its model results serves to focus attention on scenarios that are favorable to intervention and to deficit spending. But the policy discussion does not include scenarios in which intervention fails to accomplish intended results or where economic shocks make a large government debt problematic. This Essay recommends ways for Congress to redirect the CBO, resulting in analysis and reporting that would provide better support for public policy.
This is one of my favorite essays, because I believe it is both original and correct.
There is a sort of Murphy’s Law at work in the way that policy makers use the CBO. They pay attention to its “scoring” when it is least appropriate to do so, and they ignore the CBO when it is most appropriate to pay attention, namely its analysis showing that the long-term budget outlook is not sustainable.
It should be very clear that I blame the press and policy makers for how they mis-use the CBO. I do not blame the CBO itself.
Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan would have agreed with Arnold’s essay.
Excellent article and riposte to the likes of McCardle. The move to sanctify CBO appears to be part of larger reactionary movement to squash the populist revolt against the elites. The elites are reduced to arguing that governance must be inscrutable and an altar rail erected because the masses are unclean, tainted by impure social media sources and Russian bots, or otherwise irrational because their education credentials are deeemed not as worthy as that of the worthies or they are otherwise irrational becuase they fail to acknowledge and express gratitude for the noblesse oblige of our betters. One nitpick though. Describing CBO as “non-partisan” is meaningless and misleading. Besides bill scores, CBO also issues reports on topics it chooses as being significant. These other reports tell us a lot about the mindset and political leanings of CBO analysts. The frequent issuance of reports with radical, politically implausible recommendations often serves obfuscate the availability of incremental reform options. And for chrissakes, the FBI is nominally nonpartisan too. Non-partisan federal agencies. What a joke.
Every problem is worse with partisan think tanks and debate, and while they would like nothing better than to make everything a matter of opinion or allegiance and make the world safe for BS. It is so much easier not to have ones fallacies challenged, to not have to deal with numbers, to live in the echo ones thoughts, but it is disgraceful and dishonorable.
Nor is it the CBO that is interventionist but politics; they just serve. And haven’t you been paying attention? The election and aftermath has shown the debt is too small.