See Scott Sumner’s short paper.
estimates of fiscal multipliers become little more than forecasts of central bank incompetence. If the Fed is doing its job, then it will offset fiscal policy shocks and keep nominal spending growing at the desired level. Ben Bernanke would deny engaging in explicit monetary offset, as the term seems to imply something close to sabotage. But what if he were asked, “Mr. Bernanke, will the Fed do what it can to prevent fiscal austerity from leading to mass unemployment?” Would he answer “no”?
The Keynesian point of view is that the Fed “ran out of ammunition” when the Fed Funds rate went to zero. At this point, I do not know what to say to people who take that view. If it were true, then the fiscal multiplier should be bigger than one would otherwise expect. Yet it seems to have turned out smaller–the stimulus did less than predicted, and the austerity did less damage than predicted. And to me, it seems obvious that as long as there is stuff that the Fed can buy, including long-term bonds and foreign currency, it has “ammunition.” But the Keynesians routinely dismiss as incompetent anyone who who claims that the Fed cannot run out of ammunition. Perhaps Scott’s paper will force them to actually defend their position, although chances are that they will just continue to ignore or insult those with whom they disagree.
My own views do not align with either Sumner or the Keynesians. PSST is an alternative to the AS-AD story.
A better model of thinking that “out of ammunition” is “reached the end of the scope of influence”
PSST appears to account for some of this. Animal spirits and balance sheet limits may account for more. But the key thing is that in the end, there’s a maximum possible effect the fed, or for that matter fiscal policy, can possibly have.
I now tend to think that the Fed has a much larger problem with the limits of the scope of its influence than with having ammunition to apply to said scope.
Prof. Kling,
My understanding is that the market monetarists prefer some kind of a monetary rule to be followed, preferably automatically, via the usage of futures markets. In the PSST story, what is the preferred monetary policy/monetary rule?
And central bank incompetence should be ignored?