I am back now.
1. There is a construction boom underway. My best guess is that until recently household formation grew faster than supply, but now the opposite is going to happen. I believe that there are long lags between intent to build and completion. Perhaps projects that complete after the middle of next year will face some downward price pressure, although that seems inconceivable to Israelis.
2. The Israeli center-left seems bereft at the moment. They perceive themselves as lacking leaders. Netanyahu faces stronger threats from the right than from the left. No politician can get away with advocating a policy based on trust and confidence in Palestinian leaders.
3. My center-left friends, who were enthusiastic about Obama in 2008, feel very differently now. I think that on a scale of 1 to 10, where I might rate his foreign policy as about 4, they seem to rate it lower than 2. They believe that Europeans are similarly disillusioned with Obama. I have no first-hand evidence for or against that.
4. They don’t know what to make of U.S. politics. Israelis whose sympathies lie with Democrats have trouble grasping Hillary Clinton’s struggles. Those who align with Republicans cannot grasp what has happened to establishment candidates there. I cited Martin Gurri frequently.
5. On security, I never felt danger, nor did I sense an increased presence of guards.
6. What will Israeli Arabs do? There is a case for saying that rationally they are fortunate to be living in Israel, and polls show that close to half feel that way. In the Haifa area, there are middle-class Arab families moving into Jewish neighborhoods. But I would guess that ethnic identity and resentment are potentially strong.
They don’t know what to make of U.S. politics.
You missed a chance. At the risk of being too internet-ty Rococo, you should have deadpanned: “Well, the Jews have controlled US politics for a long time and they’ve done a really bad job, and now the thing is falling apart.”
I lived in Haifa for a little while and got the impression that Israeli Arabs were mostly happy to be a part of a prosperous and free country, even though some tensions are inevitable.
One of many pages that provides some support for the claim that these relations are mostly good:
https://www.quora.com/How-do-Israeli-Arabs-feel-about-Israel
Related, but lighter fare: on how Tel Aviv is the new hot spot for the rich and famous
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/tel-aviv-is-hollywoods-new-848528
they seem to rate it lower than 2. Probably because Obama has done what is
more of our self interest. not Israel.
1) His poor handling with Libya creates problems for Israel
2) While the Syrian Civil War is not Obama fault, the Civil War is a risk for Israel.
3) Many in the US may agree the Iranian nuclear deal and have seen the events the last month (sailors, prisoner exchange, Iran fulfilling the deal and assets returned to Iran) as good improved relations with Iran and US. But Israel does not view this as a positive.
Better way of saying is the Middle East is very unstable right now (low oil prices, Arab Spring, huge disconnect) but most of these problems are Middle East political and little Obama can do.
Funny, the day you talk about citing Martin Gurri in a post which also touches on the perception of Obama’s foreign policy, the former posts on just that subject: https://thefifthwave.wordpress.com/2016/01/26/staring-into-the-pit-or-how-we-learned-to-love-the-iranian-bomb/
As a secular Jew who has not been to Israel but would like to go at some point, I appreciate your posts on the subject, Arnold.
4. We are having our own Arab Spring. I suspect it hasn’t hit Democrats yet because they claim to be progressive and they already have the mildly disaffected vote. If people decide they aren’t revolutionary enough the backlash may hit them even harder. Maybe they can keep deflecting blame but they seem pretty tone deaf so far. Right now the reactionaries are marginally angrier than the revolutionaries.
Very interesting. Much appreciated. My impression from reading, and some friends working in center-left politics in Israel is that the Israeli left is itself undergoing a sort of internal split between far-left and center-left. Center-left types have talked lately about failures to reach out to mainstream Israelis (i.e. letting the right and far-right claim to be the only political actors who take “security” seriously; failing to pitch peace process as vital to security; using alienating rhetoric, etc.). Some of the tone is defeatist – lamenting missed opportunities – but some of it is [slightly] more optimistic about future avenues for engagement. The center-left seems to see itself adrift at sea right now, but as an outside observer it seems to me that there might be some opportunities to pick up more center and center-right types if they make some tactical adjustments. In fact, part of why Netanyahu seems to face more serious challenges from his right than his left is because the more realistic challengers to his left (left-of-center and more moderate right-of-center types) do not have as strong a tradition yet of working together. So in this respect, a lot probably depends on whether and how the far-left and center-left proceed from here.
Does any of this ring true?