For Flint, Detroit, Youngstown, Cleveland, and Milwaukee, the demise of manufacturing, steel production, and other off-shored blue-collar work have gutted these foundries of good middle-class jobs.
Pointer from Mark J. Perry, who provides two interesting tables and much interesting analysis, including
Not surprisingly, more than half (11) of the top 20 metro areas with the highest median incomes for Americans ages 18-34 in 1980 were in Midwest or Rust Belt states (Flint, Detroit, Chicago, Milwaukee, Youngstown, Cleveland, Minneapolis-St. Paul, Pittsburgh, Toledo, Grand Rapids and Cincinnati). By 2009-2013, only three of the top 20 metro areas by income for young Americans were in Midwest or Rust Belt states: Minneapolis-St. Paul, Chicago and Des Moines (and none of those cities have a strong manufacturing base), and almost all of the top 20 metros by income for young Americans were in East Coast or West Coast states (San Jose, San Francisco, Washington, DC, Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Seattle, etc.).
The force that this illustrates is the New Commanding Heights. As income rises, the demand for manufactured goods tapers off, and much more of the increased income is spent on education and health care.
I buy the New Commanding Heights as an explanation for Boston (buoyed by pharma and its universities) or Baltimore, but I’m less convinced in the case of New York, Seattle, San Jose or San Francisco. The last three, in particular, are famous for their muscular software industries. Software might not be assembly-line manufacturing, but it _does_ involve making products for consumers or other businesses to buy and immediately use, unlike education or healthcare. Of course, one should perhaps add software to the list of New Commanding Heights.
I agree, and similar things could be said about most coastal cities.
DC is not strong on either higher-education or healthcare, for example.
It seems like the “New Commanding Heights” pertain mostly to the remnants of mid-western cities themselves.
As Arnold noted before, downtown St. Louis has been taken over by universities and hospitals. But St. Louis does not make the list of highest-income cities for young people.
Which of the following do you think lives more comfortably and has more disposable income:
A. The average young person living in the San Francisco area making 47K, or
B. The average young person living in the Detroit metro area making $35K?
Check the average rents, and the answer will be obvious.
These people’s problem is that they cling to anti-trade.