That is the prediction of Jason Collins.
As those with higher fertility are selected for, the “high-fertility” genotypes are expected to come to dominate the population, causing the fertility rate to return to its pre-shock level. We show that even with relatively low levels of genetically based variation in fertility, there can be a rapid return to a high-fertility state, with recovery to above-replacement levels usually occurring within a few generations. In the longer term, this implies that the proportion of elderly in the population will be lower than projected, reducing the fiscal burden of ageing on developed world governments.
I wouldn’t discount my generation (I’m 22) being more fertile than older generations. We’re certainly less work-oriented (digital age + Great Recession) which will free up some people (maybe more stay-at-home dads?) to take care of the kids.
I’d also wager that there will be people like Bryan Caplan and other pro-natalists who will convince people on having more kids. A few years ago I was adamantly anti-children (even though I love kids) but I’ve thought more and more about the benefits of having more kids (both to myself and to the rest of the world).
My two kids are doing their bit for the continuance of the species: one has four kids, the other has three.
The hardest part is finding a[n affordable] vehicle that can transport both warm bodies and gear. Have you ever tried to fit four infant/child car seats into one vehicle? Plus driver and adult passenger? And carry boxes, bags, etc.?
I read the linked blog post, not the paper, but I find it hard to believe. I suspect the technological and cultural forces acting against fertility will be much stronger than whatever religious groups are now breeding like crazy.
Not surprising, I’ve been saying this for years. However, there is another side to this, which is that forming a family is getting more and more expensive. As population densities continue to rise and the cost of a home in a safe neighborhood rises ever-higher, people who want more kids won’t necessarily be able to have them.
However, pro-natalist people who use welfare won’t have anything to worry about. The state pays them for their kids. The results are highly dysgenic, but you aren’t supposed to talk about or notice that.