in terms of human talent, GDP, China right now is in most ways a peer country to the United States. We’re not ready for that, mentally or emotionally.
In contrast, Peter Zeihan sees China in a precarious position:
1. China is the about to age at the most rapid rate of any country. Over the next twenty years, the average age of the U.S. population will barely budget, but the average age in China will rise 5 years.
2. China is much more dependent on trade than the U.S. It needs to import great quantities of oil, from the Middle East. According to Zeihan, “somewhere between 40 percent and 50 percent of the Chinese economy is directly involved in international commerce.”
3. China’s navy would have a very difficult time operating out of China’s waters.
4. China’s geography is conductive to internal strife and warfare, but not to economic integration.
China right now is in most ways a peer country to the United States. We’re not ready for that, mentally or emotionally.
This hits me as mostly conservative beltway talk and I don’t think most US citizens are that bothered that China would be economically and international equal to the US. Frankly this ‘lofty’ US perch is a burden on the average citizen as we pay more for the military and do a lot of nice things to control global peace that are really not in our interest. And China has been extremely rational nation that will have its issues:
1) The China model still appears to Fast-Forwarding the whole Japanese experience of 1960 – 1998. Obviously it won’t repeat Japan but I still believe it will ‘Rhyme’ their experience.
2) I am a little dubious of aging demographics will China hard for another 10 – 20 years as the nation as there is still 300M subsistence farmers in the economy.
3) I do wonder what happens when manufacturing jobs start declining and how the government will control the people. Right now China is growing wages from manufacturing wage increasing and lower commodity prices which resembles the 1960s US economy or Japan 1980s closely. The commodity price will rise at some point and automation is going to continue so the next recession will start the decline of manufacturing jobs in China.
4) Judging by the aggressive tone with Japan and India, China is looking for a nationalism war although I am not sure where. India and Japan are really small bickering for a nasty war with potential US involvement. Once I thought Valenzuela with their failing debt but China is investing a lot in Pakistan who always seems to turn against their Allies.
1. China’s reduced its one-family one-child rules, so I expect a few more youngsters will be coming along, particularly when India starts crowing about being the world’s largest nation — which doesn’t seem to be far off.
2. China imports oil, true. China manufactures solar cells and wind turbines and has a few nuclear power plants and a whole lot of coal. In a pinch they might find a few friendly nations that are willing to see them some more coal. Guess where.
3. Maybe it’s just for bragging rights, but the Chinese have been building up some small islands out in the Pacific Ocean and planting naval bases on them. You’ve heard of Pearl Harbor and Midway Island and Guam and the Philippines? Why assume that Chinese equivalents will always be negligible?
4. As countries go, China is fairly large, with lots of varied territory, and they’ve generated a whole bunch of news stories about constructing high-speed railways in all directions from one place to another. Also, they have airplanes. Think hard — have you ever heard of anyplace else, big, with railroads and airplanes? (Well yes, of course — Australia. The US might seem to qualify, but the biggest thing our history is the Civil War so we’re obviously never going to achieve major power status).
Apologies; I’m feeling sarcastic today.
A small thing about India. Indians will hate the day we’re the world’s most populous country. It’s been a constant refrain that we need to have more population control for more than 40 years.
1 – Typos! “China is about to age” (no “the”); “US pop will barely budge” (not budget!).
Both Tyler and Peter are correct. The US is not really ready for a “peer” superpower, and China is moving towards that. However, the USSR was a wimpy Cold War demon ( yet the commies DID win in Vietnam; and arguably more recently in Venezuela, as well as US Academia.) The Chinese human talent is huge, altho there do remain huge coming aging problems.
Before the aging, there is the current deficiency of marriageable women – some 60 million difference between too many 18-40 year old men vs women. And so very many of both types of “first born AND only child”. There are now millions of only children who are children of only children — one child for 4 grandparents. Grandparents and parents who, often, are richer than they’ve been before.
Too many young men without wives is likely to lead to much more willingness to go to war.
2) The huge amount trade of China argues against war; but also to more contacts throughout the world. More trade is better, tho more vulnerable, than less trade. Think Netherlands 300 years ago.
3) More important than “ease of operating” is “# of good ships” for a Navy. China has been and continues to invest in their Navy. As it achieves near parity, or superiority over, the US Pacific Fleet, the US trade also becomes more vulnerable, as well as all of China’s neighbors. All of those neighbors are likely to want more alliance with the US.
4) China’s internal geography is less important than its urbanization — there are over 100 cities with 1 million or more people. That’s already more than the US and Europe combined. Plus there are some 200 of 300 million still to urbanize as their agri revolution continues driving peasants off the land. 20%, 10%, 5% of workers to feed the country in the near future.
You didn’t mention:
5) The Chinese military complains that too many Chinese boys are: “too fat and masturbate too often.”