According to a study cited by the San Diego Union-Tribune, the majority of people who left California between 2007 and 2016 made less than $55,000 per year, and according to the New York Times, skyrocketing real estate prices have all but obliterated the black population in San Francisco. This black exodus is not limited to California. According to Forbes, many are also leaving Northern and Midwestern cities and moving to Sun Belt states in pursuit of better jobs and affordable housing.
The article assembles a lot of data on states that are gaining population and states that are losing population. The former tend to be red states and the latter tend to be blue states.
A lot of successful coastal hubs can only function if they can engage in a constant demographic dividend that comes from pushing out their lower orders and sucking in the better demographics from across the country and globe. Thus, we can see how “just be like the coastal hubs” is a hallow retort. There aren’t enough high IQ people to make more Silicon Valleys. And the refugees of Silicon Valley have to live somewhere.
We have a census coming in 2020. Look t the impending distribution of House seats among states, there will be some stark changes in politics.
Who do you think reapportionment will favor? My guess is that it will favor team red. Those blue state migrants are already there and voting. Or will it depend on gerrymandering?
It is the shift from Northeast to South west of which I was thinking. Florida, the entitlement state, Texas, the oil state, and California, the public sector state; the three largest. New York, at fourth, can no longer be counted on as a net contributor state, they will be over whelmed. Texas has always been careful to run a net zero tax /serves exchange with DC. And California has been pushing to keep more of the wealth tax for themselves, to cover pensions. Small states will be obstinate about being saddled.
Great article. One wonders though how long the federal government will allow states to pursue growth oriented policies. Methinks the coming green new deal that will be foisted upon us with the connivance of “moderate” republicans will shut down the productive taxed economy in every state.
I think the end state of progressivism, even a soft landing kind, is something where the effective marginal tax rate people face is something like 100% for all household income 25k-150k. In the lower half of that range it will come in the from means tested benefits that phase out. On the upper half of that range it will come from zero sum goods that the UMC can’t go without getting bid up (education, real estate, daycare). Anyone that tries to forge a middle class friendly economy will be destroyed.
Of course the within-state trends are also important. Upstate New York is draining; the NYC population has risen. People have flooded into high-productivity urban centers (some of the most regulated, and most profitable, areas of all) in precisely those states that have seen net outflow from their rural regions.
True. I think the optimal situation, generally, is blue cities in red states. Austin, Raleigh, Atlanta, Nashville, Houston, Vegas, Phoenix, etc.
Helmholtz’s point carries in Colorado, as well. Look at what in-migration from California has done to Colorado. Notice anything similar among those three top in-migration states?
“An estimated one-third of net migrants that came to Colorado from 2010 to 2016 were from California, Illinois and New York, while migrants left Colorado for Wyoming, South Carolina and Arkansas.”
https://www.kansascityfed.org/publications/research/rme/articles/2018/rme-3q-2018
Also, check out the Colorado counties, red v. blue. The blue is Boulder, Denver, Pitkin and San Miguel County (Pitkin is Aspen, San Miguel is Telluride, etc.) https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-colorado-elections.html
One aspect of this aspect of this analysis I wish it included was the population flows of Foreign Immigrants as the states of NY and CA are still growing despite native population outflows. For the most part I believe CA has losing native populations since 1990.
Otherwise Blue states do have a thing or two to learn from UT and TX.
While the problem areas (CA, NY, MA) do take in positive flows of international immigrants, those flows aren’t much different than flows to FL, TX, AZ, etc.
I wonder how this will affect the future distribution of “red” and “blue” states.
Each additional vote in a state for either Clinton or Obama is associated with net migration of about 1 resident out of the state between 2005-2014.
https://www.idiosyncraticwhisk.com/2016/11/the-real-anti-immigration-party.html