John McWhorter speculates,
In the 1960s, a new and powerful fashion in black thought, inherited from the general countercultural mood, rejects championing assimilation to proposing that opposition to whiteness is the soul of blackness. Meanwhile, white leftists encourage as many poor black women as possible to go on welfare, hoping to bankrupt the government and inaugurate a fairer America. Soon, being on welfare in poor black communities is a new normal – hardly the usual, but so common that people grow up seeing not working for a living as ordinary. Then at this same time, a new War on Drugs gave poor black men a way of making half of a living by selling drugs on the black market, amidst a violent culture of gangland turf-policing. This feels more natural to them than it would have to their fathers because 1) the new mood sanctions dismissing traditional values as those of a “chump,” 2) it no longer feels alien to eschew legal employment, and 3) the Drug War helps make it that most boys in such neighborhoods grow up without fathers anyway.
I think McWhorter is being shockingly uncharitable* to progressives with the sentence that begins “Meanwhile, white leftists. . .” I don’t think anyone wanted to maximize the number of poor black women on welfare. But regardless of intent, one can argue that the consequences of the War on Poverty were that work and marriage were strongly discouraged. I think that to this day, in spite of the (temporary) “end welfare as we know it” turn under President Clinton, the implicit marginal tax rates on the poor of all races are very high. That is because benefits like Medicaid and food stamps fade out as income goes up. For a woman, the financial advantage of a husband who earns about $30,000 a year can be close to nil.
[*UPDATE: I am wrong about this. See Handle’s comment. McWhorter knows what he is talking about, apparently.]
The larger topic of McWhorter’s essay is Charles Murray’s latest book. McWhorter writes,
in the end, Murray avoids stating too directly what the obvious implication of his argument is. He thinks that we need to accept an America in which black people are rarely encountered in jobs requiring serious smarts. We need to accept an America in which almost no black people are physicists or other practitioners in STEM, have top-level jobs in government, or are admitted to top-level graduate programs at all. Black people will invent little, there will be many fewer black doctors and lawyers, and many fewer black experts in, well, anything considered really intellectually challenging.
I agree with the complaint that Murray is not being forthcoming. In yesterday’s post, I called it “ducking and dancing.”
To repeat my own views, I would like to see us treat people as individuals and not pay attention to group outcomes. That approach may not be perfect, but other approaches strike me was worse.
But suppose you told me that it was unrealistic to ignore group outcomes, and you insisted that I offer suggestions for improving outcomes among blacks. My thoughts would be along these lines:
1. I take the Null Hypothesis seriously. I would not put a lot of my chips on formal education as a solution.
2. I take incentives seriously. So I would get rid of Federal poverty programs and replace them with (a) a small UBI that lowers the heavy marginal tax rate on the working poor; and (b) community programs to identify and support families with special needs.
3. I take cultural forces seriously. Personality traits and social norms differ markedly across groups and over time. We don’t know a great deal about the process by which these factors change. For example, when marriage rates decline, we have great difficulty disentangling the many possible causes and effects. There are many arguments to be had about what is a good cultural trait and what is a bad one. And there is no policy dashboard sitting in front of us with buttons and dials that allow us to steer culture. But culture should be the focus for research and policy experiments.
I note that McWhorter’s ideas about violence in poor black communities fall within this framework.