Populist leaders as father figures

Mary Eberstadt writes,

In every case, the signature of the new populism is a particular kind of masculine authority figure who makes a series of characteristic promises: to clean up the messes left by others; to take care of “his” people by protecting them; and to call off the bullies in any form they appear—illegal immigrants, rapacious elites, menacing foreign nations, and so on.

. . .Nor is Trump alone in functioning as a super-daddy in a world where more and more children and former children grow up without an ordinary father in the home.

I recently read Eberstadt’s new book, Primal Screams, in which she argues that the sexual revolution resulted in a dramatic decline in the number of children growing up in intact families with siblings, creating identity crises for such children, with identity politics stepping in to provide a substitute for the loss of strong family identity. I will re-read her book, which includes interesting reaction essays by Rod Dreher, Mark Lilla, and Peter Thiel (you can think of them as representing the three axes, respectively). But at the moment I would describe her thesis as at best speculative.

I had the same skeptical reaction to the essay on populism. Does the causal analysis hold up under scrutiny? It seems to me that authoritarian “father-figure” leaders have emerged at different times and in disparate countries without being preceded by a sudden increase in broken families. I think that she needs to make a more rigorous attempt to demonstrate the validity of her causal model if she wants to avoid the accusation of practicing right-wing normative sociology.

Groupthink in Criminology

John Paul Wright and Matt De Lisi write,

Unfortunately, criminology has had a long history of suppressing evidence for expressly political reasons. For most of its history, the discipline has overtly censored research, for instance, on biological, genetic, and neurological factors that scientists have shown to be associated with antisocial traits and behavioral problems. Even today, despite lots of hard scientific evidence—such as that 50 percent of the variance in antisocial behavior is attributable to genetic factors, or neuroimaging studies that show systemic structural and functional brain differences between offenders and non-offenders—those who pursue this line of research get branded as racists or even eugenicists. We have personally experienced hostile receptions when presenting our work in these areas at professional conferences and have been excoriated in the anonymous-review process when attempting to publish our papers. The disciplinary animus toward the study of biological factors extends to other individual factors, including intelligence and personality, and to a range of traits, such as callous and unemotional behavior, psychopathy, and self-control.

Read the whole article. Before you cheer for criminal justice reform, you might want to make sure that it isn’t all based on normative sociology.

Giving the left its due

A commenter asks,

What is the best website for left-wing political commentary?

If I had to pick one, it would be Progressive Policy Institute.

The standard that I hold up to someone on the left is to ask what you do when prominent figures on the left take a stand that is contrary to what you have long believed. Your choices are:

a) support their position, because they are on your team, abandoning your previous beliefs
b) don’t completely abandon your previous beliefs, but don’t come out and criticize the problematic position
c) come out and say that you disagree with the position

The folks at PPI are willing to do (c). So is Bill Galston. So is Alan Blinder. My reading of Paul Krugman is that he will do (a) much more than (c).

I worry that most of the intellectuals on the left who are willing to do (c) are over 60.

I should emphasize that I respect people who change their minds. I just don’t respect those who change their minds in order to support their team.

What about me and the right-wing “team”?

I oppose Republican fiscal policy, which consists of tax cuts without spending cuts. I oppose trade warring. I oppose re-privatizing Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae–and I know that stance has made me personal non grata to Congressional Republicans.

So I think I have occasionally taken option (c). I hope that I am never guilty of (a).

George Will on national conservatism

He writes,

Regimes, however intellectually disreputable, rarely are unable to attract intellectuals eager to rationalize the regimes’ behavior. America’s current administration has “national conservatives.” They advocate unprecedented expansion of government in order to purge America of excessive respect for market forces, and to affirm robust confidence in government as a social engineer allocating wealth and opportunity. They call themselves conservatives, perhaps because they loathe progressives, although they seem not to remember why.

To hear what he is talking about, listen to this podcast with J.D. Vance. Vance argues that we need industrial policy, because

a) we already have one
b) China is bad
c) we should have neuroscientists working on the cure for Alzheimer’s not in social media

When I think of industrial policy in America, I think of Solyndra and other “green energy” companies backed by the government. Industrial policy is an even worse idea in a democracy than in a dictatorship, because in a democracy you have to serve interest groups.

And it’s not as if the NIH isn’t funding a lot of Alzheimer’s research as it is. My guess is that the marginal return on additional funding is negative, because you probably entrench scientists who are pursuing dead ends.

I think conservative intellectuals should not try to build an ideological scaffolding around the Trump presidency. Just focus on trying to bring rigor back into academia.

Pushback against race-mindedness

Two opinion pieces from the August 3 WSJ.

First, Joseph Epstein writes,

The power of the word racism—always cocked, aimed and ready to fire—makes it impossible to say anything, outside the most obeisant praise, about black culture, black politicians, black entertainers or black anything. The entire subject is out of bounds to anyone who isn’t black, and many black intellectuals and writers are themselves in peril if they step outside the racial party line. This can’t be healthy, for blacks or for the country at large.

. . .the real racists in this country are those who insist blacks are permanent victims and always will be so in what they claim is an irretrievably, hopelessly racist America. Forgoing easy recourse to the word racism, in a small but not insignificant way, might be a step toward eliminating racism itself.

Second, Anthony Kronman writes,

But diversity, as it is understood today, means something different. It means diversity of race, ethnicity, gender and sexual orientation. Diversity in this sense is not an academic value. Its origin and aspiration are political. The demand for ever-greater diversity in higher education is a political campaign masquerading as an educational ideal.

. . .Motivated by politics but forced to disguise itself as an academic value, the demand for diversity has steadily weakened the norms of objectivity and truth and substituted for them a culture of grievance and group loyalty. Rather than bringing faculty and students together on the common ground of reason, it has pushed them farther apart into separate silos of guilt and complaint.

I find it striking to contemplate how much easier race relations seem to be in the blue-collar sectors of America. There certainly was a time when many whites did not want to work next to blacks in factories, retail stores, or construction sites. But today racially-mixed work forces seem to operate in those industries with little apparent discord.

Instead, the need for diversity and inclusion programs seems to be concentrated in academia, with some spillover into journalism and other fields that attract recent graduates in humanities and social sciences. Fifty years ago, one would not have predicted that academia would be the industry where race relations would require the most attention.

Progressive Puritans

Curtis YarvinMaureen Dowd writes,

The progressives are the modern Puritans. The Massachusetts Bay Colony is alive and well on the Potomac and Twitter.

Indeed, New England Puritanism persisted, with or without churches. The descendants of the Puritans crusaded against slavery. They crusaded against liquor. They crusaded against large corporations.

You can take the Yankees out of organized religion. But it’s hard to take the religion out of the Yankees.

Reminder: Now would be a good time to order the latest edition of The Three Languages of Politics.

On Tom Wolfe, Ken Kesey, and LSD

Scott Alexander writes,

The best I can do in making sense of this story is to think of Kesey as having unique innate talents that made him a potential cult leader, combined with the sudden rise in status from being a famous author and the first person in his social scene with access to LSD. Despite the connotations of “cult leader”, Kesey was overall a good person, genuinely wanted to help people’s spiritual development, and genuinely thought LSD could do this. LSD formed the content of his cult, the same way Messianic Judaism formed the content of Jesus’ cult. It also made his life easier because of the drug’s natural tendency to make people think they are having important insights. When he, attempting to genuinely discover a spiritual path, decided to change the content and go beyond LSD, he lost that crutch, his people betrayed him, he became less confident in himself, and eventually he gave up.

My interpretation of Kesey is a bit different. He could only depict the power struggle between Nurse Ratched and Randle McMurphy because he understood the strengths of both. (Note that more than one pundit has seen an echo in the contest between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.) So he had a natural sense of personal power, but I think in the end he did not want it. Maybe it bored him. Maybe having a cult following even turned him off after a while. These days, you can watch Jordan Peterson and suspect that he sometimes longs to retire to a life of isolation and anonymity, which is what Kesey did.

When I was in high school, I read and re-read Jack Kerouac’s On the Road, Kesey’s One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest, and Tom Wolfe’s The Electric Kool-Aid Acid Test. Alexander gives a good plot summary of the latter. Of the three, I would say that Cuckoo’s Nest holds up the best, followed by Acid Test.

I recommend Alexander’s whole post. The key paragraph:

One of two things must be true. Either psychedelics are a unique gateway to insight and happiness, maybe the most powerful ever discovered. Or they have a unique ability to convince people that they are, faking insight as effectively as heroin fakes happiness. Either one would be fascinating: the first for obvious reasons, the second because it convinces some pretty smart people. If the insight of LSD were fake, its very convincingness could tell us a lot about the mind and about how rationality works.

My money is on the latter.

Martin Gurri watch

After attending a conference, he wrote,

The conference organizers got our predicament right. At every level of contemporary social and political life, we are stuck in the muck of a profound crisis of authority. The mass audience of the twentieth century has fractured like a fallen mirror. An angry and alienated public inhabits the broken shards – and nobody speaks for the whole. The elites who should take the first step into the unknown are paralyzed by doubt and fear. They utter the words science and reason like incantations, claim ownership to Platonic truth, and believe, with astonishing unanimity, that they have been overthrown by a tsunami of lies.

A useful exercise would be to compile a list of stories that reflect badly on the elites. Put the list into two columns: stories that are mostly true; and stories that are mostly false.

It sounds as if the speakers at the conference want to blame their woes on the second column. Gurri and I would say that the first column matters more.

Only grandparents should vote

Alex Tabarrok writes,

the time-horizon of (self-interested) older voters is short so perhaps this biases the political system towards short time-horizon policies such as deficit spending or kicking the can down the road on global warming. Philosopher William MacAskill offers an alternative, age-weighted voting.

The post covers many obvious objections, and Tabarrok is not endorsing the scheme to give younger voters more weight.

But I want to suggest that the people with the longest time horizon are grandparents. Grandparents love our grandchildren, and we concern ourselves with their future. If you want an electorate with a long time horizon, give more weight to the folks with grandchildren.

I do not really believe that only grandparents should vote. But I wish that our perspective on life were better known.