The election and the HEEs

1. Biden won. Get over it, people.

2. It was a lot like 2016, in that a small number of votes in swing states made a difference. Trump had the luck in 2016, and Biden had the luck this year.

3. To me, the most important take-away is that highly-educated elites (HEEs) have lost touch with the country. I mean, if the Democrats had put up Elizabeth Warren, Trump would have won in a blow-out. Anyone who works at the NYT or the WaPo is hereby disqualified to comment on American politics.

2016 made it clear that the HEEs don’t speak to white working-class voters. 2020 made it clear that the HEEs don’t speak to minorities. Biden got the the crucial South Carolina primary because of Clyburn, and Trump got Florida because of how well he did with minority voters there.

4. The legacy of Donald Trump will be that he opened up key voting blocs for the Republican Party by running against the HEEs.

5. The Democrats have a problem. The HEEs are their base, and you cannot alienate your base. But if your base alienates everyone else, what do you do?

6. Libertarians have a problem. We’re mostly HEEs. The Democratic HEEs hate us and the Republicans need to run against us.

Anti-woke, anti-Trump

This is a small and interesting subset of commentators. See Coleman Hughes and Andrew Sullivan/Sam Harris.

My framework for looking at various aspects of the Presidential contest is to think in terms of probabilities. Given my preferences, what is the probability that the outcome of a Trump victory would be significantly better? What is the probability that a Biden victory would be significantly better? What is the probability of no significant difference?

For example, Sullivan and Harris argue vehemently that the response to the virus under President Trump was much worse than it should have been. From my framework, I do not see that. On March 19, I wrote Fire the Peacetime Bureaucrats, and I stand by the view that the top career officials at FDA and CDC should have been replaced by a crew with open minds, high energy and determination, and outstanding management skills. I would say that the probability that Biden would rely much more than Trump on the peacetime bureaucrats by a significant amount would be about 8 percent. The probability that Biden would instead find better people to rely on would be about 2 percent. The probability that neither Trump nor Biden would find better people to rely on is 90 percent.

I should say that I do not think that a Kamala Harris Administration would be much different from a Biden Administration. Although it is possible that in a Biden Administration she could slide into a role as ambassador to the radical left, my intuition is that she herself has no deep-seated beliefs, radical or otherwise.

So, on the aspects that I care most about, here goes. Depending on who wins–

1. Four years from now, will the Woke movement be stronger or weaker?

Hughes, Sullivan, and Harris argue that the Woke movement will be weaker if Biden wins. Hughes makes the important point that the Woke movement is cultural, and it would be a mistake to over-estimate the power of Presidential support or opposition to affect it.

One might hope that with Trump off stage, people on the moderate left would feel more inclined to distance themselves from the radicals. I think that is what these anti-Woke commentators are counting on, but I don’t see it as likely. If Biden wins, my friends who live conservatively and vote progressively are still going to keep their Black Lives Matter signs on their lawns. My guess is that Woke Capitalism will continue to march ahead. etc.

The ultra-Woke institutions of higher education and the K-12 establishment are likely to get much more help from a Biden Administration than from a Trump Administration. If you want to see more children in charter schools and more high school graduates finding alternatives to matriculating at Indoctrinate U, you want Trump to win. I put the probability of no significant difference at 70 percent, the probability of a better outcome under Biden at 5 percent, and the probability of a better outcome under Trump at 25 percent.

2. Will the politicization of everything be more or less?

This is where I find Hughes, Sullivan, and Harris most persuasive. Trump is a provocateur, and that is not helpful for turning down the political heat. Yes, you can blame radical leftists for politicization, but their antics are given. At the margin, a Biden Presidency seems to me to be less likely to add fuel to the fire. So I would put the probability of no significant difference at 70 percent, the probability that things would be better under Biden at 25 percent, and the probability that things would be better under Trump at 5 percent.

3. Will the President attract and retain good people?

My sense is that HUD Secretary Carson and Education Secretary DeVos have moved in policy directions that I like, and I give President Trump credit for retaining them. In foreign policy, I think that Trump’s mistreatment of his appointees is very risky. So far, we have survived without a major disaster, but I am not confident that will continue. Overall, I think that President Trump has not done a good job of attracting and retaining good people, and that is an important weakness. I think it is likely that Biden will appoint people who are more effective in achieving results but who push policies that I strongly oppose. So on this one I would rate the probability of no significant difference as 30 percent, the probability that Trump works out better [for me] as 40 percent, and the probability that Biden works out better as 30 percent. I give Biden as high a probability as I do because I fear some major avoidable mis-step on foreign policy under Trump, due to a thin team.

Thoughts on millenarianism

Yuri Slezkine wrote,

Sonja Luehrmann questions the validity of an analogy between Bolshevism and “religion.” I do not draw such an analogy. I reject the concept of religion entirely (for reasons I discuss early in the book), define millenarianism as a belief in the imminent and violent end of our imperfect world, and argue that Bolshevism was a full-fledged millenarian movement (irrespective of whether all movements that fit my definition of millenarianism fit someone else’s definition of “religion”).

Wikipedia says that millenarianism

is the belief by a religious, social, or political group or movement in a coming fundamental transformation of society, after which “all things will be changed”.

1. Slezkine describes the Bolsheviks in 1917 as like the proverbial dog that caught the fire engine. For years, Russian intellectuals had looked forward to the end of the tsarist regime. And the First World War looked like the violent end of the imperfect capitalist world. But the Bolsheviks had no blueprint for creating the heaven on earth that was supposed to follow.

2. The “fundamental transformation of society” usually requires the identification and elimination of an evil group. Often, it involves previously marginalized groups destroying previously dominant groups.

3. I suspect that millenarianism is one attempt to come to terms with one’s own mortality. I think this hits people the hardest when they are young. As they get older, most people get past the shock that they will not live forever. For those who can’t get past it, one coping mechanism is to take comfort in the belief that the whole world as we know it is going to die soon.

4. If one has children and grandchildren who seem to be on a path for a decent life, the continuity of society becomes tolerable, even desirable.

5. Hitler seems like a millenarian. He really wanted to remake the world. And in the end he reportedly thought that the German people deserved to be killed because they had let him down.

6. Antifa and the most radical self-described anti-racists strike me as millenarian.

The Morton Schapiro indicator

The Daily Northwestern reports,

After a week of abolitionist organizing on campus, University President Morton Schapiro’s email condemning student protests and the hashtag #ResignMorty trending on social media, Schapiro declared in a virtual dialogue Tuesday he “(doesn’t) walk back a single word.”

The letter referred to is quoted by Steven Hayward as reading, in part

We, as a University, recognize the many injustices faced by Black and other marginalized groups. We also acknowledge that the policing and criminal justice system in our country is too often stacked against those same communities. Your concerns are valid and necessary, and we encourage and, in fact, rely on your active engagement with us to make your school and our society equitable and safe for everyone. That said, while the University has every intention to continue improving NUPD, we have absolutely no intention to abolish it.

Northwestern firmly supports vigorous debate and the free expression of ideas — abiding principles that are fundamental for our University. We encourage members of our community to find meaningful ways to get involved and advocate for causes they believe in — and to do so safely and peacefully. The University protects the right to protest, but we do not condone breaking the law.

I view what is going on at Northwestern as a significant test case. The question it raises is whether the future of the left is represented by Maoists, as is feared by Yoram Hazony, or whether it is represented by Schapiro.

When it comes to moderation, Schapiro literally co-wrote with Gary Saul Morson the book, called Minds Wide Shut: How the New Fundamentalisms Divide Us. A few years ago, those co-authors wrote Cents and Sensibility, arguing for the need to connect economics with the humanities.

I also feel for Tiffany Riley, a Vermont high school principal, who wrote,

I firmly believe that Black Lives Matter, but I DO NOT agree with the coercive measures taken to get to this point across; some of which are falsified in an attempt to prove a point. While I want to get behind BLM, I do not think people should be made to feel they have to choose black race over human race. While I understand the urgency to feel compelled to advocate for black lives, what about our fellow law enforcement? What about all others who advocate for and demand equity for all? Just because I don’t walk around with a BLM sign should not mean I am a racist.

For which she was fired. [UPDATE: a reader sent me a story about Riley’s case.]

Persecution of heretics is the whole point of this awful religion.

Gossip resolution courts?

Robin Hanson writes,

Today social media has amped up the power of gossip. Crowds can now form opinions on more cases, and thus enforce more norms on more people. But this has also revived the ancient problem of gossip rushing to judgement.

Sounds familiar.

Robin proposes this:

I seriously propose that some respectable independent groups create non-government non-profit “Cancel Courts”. When a crowd starts to complain about a target, these courts can quickly announce some mix of a speedy investigation and trial on this complaint. They’d solicit evidence from both sides, study it, and then eventually announce their verdict.

I see this as a proposal for resolving issues of social media gossip using a prestige mechanism. But the people who are using this tool are doing so to make a dominance move. They see prestige as a tool of the white supremacist patriarchy.

You can’t legislate (liberal) morality

A commenter writes,

I think most people on the right will do what most already do (what we’re already doing here), keep using the the left wing platforms for most stuff, while occasionally seeking political retreat in low-traffic, right-of-center blogs. That may be ok for individuals on the right, as they still get to interact with like-minded people, but in small, self-selected ghettos with .001% the attention Facebook and Twitter get. The flow of communication for the right will have been mostly throttled.

Earlier, David Henderson had described speaking on a panel in which James Todaro described being blocked on social media.

Hillsdale College did not invite a Marxist to be on this panel. Does anyone hear think that Hillsdale is censoring? No. Hillsdale is using its private property as it wishes. Moreover, if James is saying that he wants the government to step in to deal with this censorship, I can almost guarantee that he’ll like the result even less.

I agree with Henderson that I would rather live in a society where government has no role in regulating speech than in a society where government is supposed to “enforce” speech rights. The legitimate objection to the decisions of Twitter and Facebook to block certain content is that they are giving in to a mob of FOOLs (Fear Of Others’ Liberty).

The First Amendment is a formal doctrine that applies to Congress. Some of us would like to see free speech embedded in social norms, so that Facebook and Twitter are not subject to mobs of FOOLs. But in that sense free speech is liberal morality, and you cannot legislate morality.

My sense is that government schools today have many more teachers who are hostile to free speech principles than was the case when I was growing up. Perhaps that is where we have good reason to complain to government.

Dancing in digital city

Maryanne Wolf has a book called Reader, Come Home about the way that Digital City is rewiring out brains to have less patience for reading. We no longer immerse ourselves in books. We no long savor great writing or re-read great passages. Sad to say, I did not have the patience to read the whole book.

I notice that my writing style now emphasizes compression. Fewer anecdotes or “throat clearing.” Get to the point.

Compression is not costless. When I listen to “Carry On” by CSNY on Spotify I don’t get the same physical thrill that I used to get from the bass-organ interlude that seemed to wash over my brain in the analog version. You don’t hear the harmonics and overtones in John Phillips’ meticulous arrangements for the Mamas and the Papas in MP3.

The other night I was downstairs dancing. The session leader, in LA, was Orly, a high-energy, carrot-topped pixie. She was playing Tefillot, a brilliantly choreographed dance that I’ve probably enjoyed doing more than a hundred times over the last few years. My wife came downstairs with her computer, and she was watching a session that was based in Denver, with a guest teacher Marcelo based in Argentina. He was teaching Smachot, a difficult dance that I have not done enough times to know. So I turned down Orly and switched to Marcelo.

Is this good or not? Why should we not just stick to one session, rather than switch back and forth? In Analog City, we go to a session, and there would be no option to jump to another session. The Analog City session would be run by a very dedicated and competent leader, who nonetheless lacks the charisma of Orly or Marcelo. The Digital City options are in some sense better, but there is not the same continuity.

It’s like the difference between skimming through Internet writing and sticking with a book. I fear we are losing the capacity for the latter.

Civil war watch

Angelo M. Codevilla writes,

In July, the Democratic National Committee engaged some 600 lawyers to litigate the outcome, possibly in every state. No particular outcome of such litigations is needed to set off a systemic crisis. The existence of the litigations themselves is enough for one or more blue state governors to refuse to certify that state’s electors to the Electoral College, so as to prevent the college from recording a majority of votes for the winner. In case no winner could be confirmed by January’s Inauguration Day, the 20th Amendment provides that Congress would elect the next president. Who doubts that, were Donald Trump the apparent winner, and were Congress in Democratic hands, that this would be likelier than not to happen?

Research on populism

In a long survey paper, Sergei Guriev and Elias Papaioannou write,

While there are many definitions of populism, there is a consensus on the lowest common denominator: “anti-elitism and anti-pluralism”. While scholars are often adding features, such as authoritarianism, nativism, identity politics, the minimal definition remains a useful reference point.

To deal with populism, the authors’ suggestions include

The mainstream parties should invest in communications especially online. Political selection could change — with greater opportunities of politicians without elite backgrounds to rise through their party ranks. Finally, governments should promote a broader use of deliberative democracy (e.g., citizens’ assemblies) that promote ownership of the reforms and reduce the gap between voters and elites.

I suspect that Martin Gurri would approve. And for further research, the authors suggest

there is an emerging consensus (at least ex-post) that populists have pursued successful communication strategies, often via social media and the internet. Why can’t mainstream parties and politicians follow suit? Is this because establishment politicians are complacent or because the very nature of internet 2.0 is conducive to propagating the populist message? Tackling such questions will most likely entail an inter-disciplinary approach, blending insights from marketing, cognitive psychology, and economics.

Samuel Hammond on gossip at scale

Samuel Hammond writes,

Closed Facebook groups, subreddits, and Twitter niches are typically self-regulating or have formal moderators, and rarely cause problems. That all changes when one’s online interactions are allowed to propagate far beyond the boundaries of real-life or otherwise opt-in social networks.

. . .Facebook, for example, could easily dampen the tendency of high engagement, sensationalist content from going viral by restricting the visibility of posts that don’t originate from within your friend network or geographical area.

I am not sure how this would work. If it did work, it might prevent gossip from spreading as widely and rapidly as it does now. That in turn might attenuate the influence of gossip on our lives.

I think, though, that the key is getting people to recognize that large-scale society cannot operate by small-scale rules. A small group can adopt “From each according to his abilities, to each according to his needs.” A large, complex society cannot do so. A small group can choose not to live by liberal values and instead adopt a hard-edged moral code and live by myths and falsehoods. It works less well in large societies.

On line, people engage in small-scale social control in a large-scale setting. I suppose that trying to confine online activity to small groups is one approach for trying to stop that. I am skeptical that it can work.