Speaking of the trust problem

I reviewed Kevin Vallier’s Trust in a Polarized Age.

Vallier is saying that we are constrained to living among people with divergent values, and in that setting the most feasible libertarian society is one which sometimes bends libertarian principles to the popular democratic will.

This struck me as an argument for what Tyler Cowen calls “state-capacity libertarianism.” In a pluralistic society, many people will have expectations for state interventions. It is better to have state intervention well-executed. Government failure will only lead people to cede more power to government in the hope of seeing improvement.

Perspective of another old net-head

Doc Searls writes,

This simple fact of our distributed souls and talents has had scant respect from the centralized systems of the digital world, which would rather lead than follow us, and rather guess about us than understand us. That’s partly because too many of them have become dependent on surveillance-based personalized advertising (which is awful in ways I’ve detailed in 136 posts, essays and articles compiled here). But it’s mostly because they’re centralized and can’t think or work outside their very old and square boxes.

Read the whole post. It is hard to excerpt.

Centralization looks attractive when you have Fear Of Others’ Liberty along with confidence that those who have power will exercise it the way you want. When people you despise are de-platformed, you’re all for it.

There is a parallel with the argument between libertarians and FOOLs over gun control. In fact, the phrase “when crypto is outlawed, only outlaws will have crypto” has been around since Bill Clinton’s first term. On guns, the FOOLS argue “Look at all the homicides and suicides.” The libertarians retort that if you take away people’s ability to self-protect, they will be at the mercy of either criminals or government or both.

Ideology as identity

Michael Huemer writes,

do you basically have the personality traits that people with your political orientation usually have? If so, you’ve probably done the awful thing that I’ve been complaining about. On the other hand, if not, then you might be among the few objective people.

He suggests that people select an ideology based on personality traits and a desire to affiliate, rather than on an objective basis. I put much more emphasis on the affiliation factor. I know plenty of people with conservative personality traits who are very comfortable reciting progressive talking points.

What I believe now, part 3: against naive revelation

A core problem is that people believe too strongly that there is a right way to manage society, and this right way is known.

Jeffrey Friedman uses the jargon “naive realism” to describe the state of mind in which you believe that your way of viewing the world is accurate. Because I trip over the word “realism” in this phrase, I prefer to call it “naive revelation.”

Naive revelation is the belief that the truth has been revealed to you. Closely related is the belief that the truth has been revealed to others (experts) that you can identify.

Naive revelation leads to faith that the solutions to social problems are easily found. This in turn leads to a belief that public officials who do not implement these solutions are blind or evil.

Public officials react to their failures by saying that they could solve problems if you give them more power. (Just let us implement lockdowns using science, and we will solve the problem of the virus.) Naive revelationists fall for this all the time.

The opposite of naive revelation is understanding that we face strong imperfection. Most of the time, the best we can do is adopt trial-and-error groping. But naive revelation is the dominant attitude.

Which is another reason that populism is not a solution. If you believe in populism, then you suffer from a form of naive revelation.

What I believe now, part 2: strong imperfection

What I mean by “strong imperfection” is that human beings and their societal arrangements are very far from perfect. We are nowhere close to utopia, and we cannot see how to get there.

A major reason for this is lack of knowledge. We know today much more than we knew one hundred years ago. It seems reasonable to expect that in another hundred years, today’s level of knowledge will seem low. If we look at all of the past beliefs that today seem wrong-headed, we should be hesitant to commit to what we believe now. On this topic of what we do not know, check out the econtalk podcast with Russ Roberts and Michael Blastland.

The implications of this are:

1. We should be humble about predicting the consequences of public policies. In an economics textbook, a single “market imperfection” is shown in isolation, with the implicit assumption that everything else is perfect. Under those assumptions, the right tax, subsidy, or regulation can reliably produce improvement.

Most economists are familiar with the “theory of the second best,” which points out that trying to fix one problem, when there are other problems or constraints, can make things worse. This is a useful concept, but it only scratches the surface of strong imperfection.

2. We should welcome trial-and-error learning. The economic and social progress we have made is largely due to trial and error, not central planning. Because of strong imperfection, we know that many flaws and problems still exist. It is likely that solutions will come from trial and error going forward, just as in the past.

3. We should try to limit the number of personal flaws that we see as inexcusable. Both as a society and as individuals we should try to extend tolerance and forgiveness. Given our current state, I do not think we can do away with prisons, but I think we should be aiming in the direction of limiting their use. I also think that we should be reducing the number of “firing offenses” in the work place, not adding to them. As individuals, we should aim to reduce the set of excuses for cutting people off as friends.

4. We should avoid the “nirvana fallacy,” which involves comparing the current state to a perfect state. The most realistic change is likely to be from an imperfect current state to another imperfect state.

5. We should resist becoming Manichean. The motives of opponents are usually not as bad as we are inclined to make them out to be.

Liberalism, conservatism, and change

Edmund Fawcett’s books on the history of liberalism and conservatism take as their fundamental difference their stances toward social change. In Fawcett’s essay, he wrote,

Liberalism responded to a novel condition of societies, energised by capitalism and shaken by revolution in which populations were growing fast and where, for better or worse, material and ethical change was now ceaseless.

One might say that the liberal disposition is to embrace and manage social change. The conservative disposition is to resist and reverse social change.

In the essay on liberalism, Fawcett wrote,

Four ideas in particular seem to have guided liberals through their history.

The first is that the clash of interests and beliefs in society is inescapable. Social harmony, the nostalgic dream of conservatives and the brotherly hope of socialists, is neither achievable nor desirable – because harmony stifles creativity and blocks initiative. Meanwhile conflict, if tamed and put to use as competition in a stable political order, could bear fruit as argument, experiment and exchange.

Secondly, human power is not to be trusted. . .

Progress for the better is both possible and desirable. . .

Finally, the framework of public life has to show everyone civic respect, whatever they believe and whoever they are.

Fawcett argues that neither conservatives nor radicals can accept these ideas. Conservatives believe that traditional societies were harmonious in the past. Radicals believe that harmony can be achieved in the future through socialism.

Regarding power, Fawcett says that conservatives urge that we submit to authority, and radicals believe that they must take power, at least until the revolution has created the new utopia.

Conservatives have doubts about progress, and radicals see progress as something that they must direct.

Conservatives have resisted giving equal rights to everyone, and radicals believe that some people’s rights (the privileged) must be reduced in order to give others the rights they deserve.

A few more thoughts:

1. Fawcett’s definition of liberalism is capacious. It can include economic liberty. But it also includes “taming” the market, which seems to be the point of his essay.

2. The difference between merely embracing change and managing change is a major divide between libertarians and others. The Cato Institute’s Human Progress embraces change. The idea of managing change is implicit in the Obama slogan “hope and change,” in Mariana Mazzucato’s The Entrepreneurial State, and in the Communist idea of a “vanguard” leading the proletariat.

3. In his latest book, on conservatism, Fawcett takes the view that conservatism is stupid and backward. Conservatives are always saying that change will have terrible results, and yet things work out. Conservatives opposed integration and civil rights, and those worked out. They opposed feminism, and that worked out. Etc.

A conservative would say that liberals’ memory is selective. They have forgotten that they once embraced eugenics as a way to achieve social progress. They have forgotten that Prohibition backfired. They have forgotten that they once said of the Soviet Union “I have seen the future and it works.” They have forgotten their support for Hugo Chavez in Venezuela. They have overlooked the decline of living standards and freedom in Cuba.

Looking ahead, it may be too early to tell about the effects of some changes. The warnings about the adverse effects of affirmative action seem to me to be accurate, but the left wants to double down on it. Same with the decline of religion, the traditional family, and child-bearing. We have not seen the dire consequences of deficit spending yet, but that does not mean that we will escape dire consequences.

Perhaps if you read his books, you will find that when Fawcett gets into specific intellectual histories he is even-handed. But in his overall characterization of the two sides he is not. Instead, he comes very close to defining any positive feature of society as liberal and any bad idea for social arrangements as conservative.

Why I oppose populism

In his work of intellectual history, Liberalism, Edmund Fawcett wrote,

To the liberal mind, nobody claiming to intuit the popular will or to speak for “the people” was to be trusted.

You can’t trust the people to trust themselves.

People who trust themselves will

1. Prefer to make their own decisions, rather than have “officials” make decisions for them.

2. Prefer not to make decisions for others.

I see populism as failing to embrace (2). But if you do not embrace (2), then you cannot live by (1). The difference between populists and elitists is about who gets to make decisions for others. For progressive elitists, it is experts, by which they mean people who think like themselves. For populists, it is popular will, by which they mean people who think like themselves.

Genuine expertise is great. We should all consider the advice of experts in making individual decisions and in making voluntary decisions about how to coordinate and collaborate with one another.

But we should not allow experts to sit on a throne and rule over us. This is where libertarianism seems to align with populism. Unfortunately, populists only remove the expert while keeping the throne. On that throne, they would place the “will of the people,” often represented by a demagogue.

I think that many of us make the mistake of thinking that “the people actually agree with me.” This comes from a habit of seeing democracy not as a check against government excess but as an expression of “the will of the people.” We go so far to flatter and venerate “the will of the people” that the notion that one’s ideas are not shared by the majority creates cognitive dissonance: if the majority is right, and I disagree with the majority, then does that mean that I am wrong?

It is tempting for you to resolve this cognitive dissonance by insisting that most people really share your views–it’s just that the system is corrupt. If we just bang on democracy’s door hard enough, our views will make it inside.

For libertarians, this means believing that deep down everybody else is libertarian. But they are not. “Keep your hands off my Medicare” or “shut down hate speech” are more typical attitudes. Many people are, either explicitly, or implicitly, FOOLs (Fear Of Others’ Liberty).

“The people” are not truly libertarian. Perhaps by your definition of the term, I am not truly libertarian either. For me, libertarianism entails resistance to rule by experts. But it also entails resistance to the “will of the people.” You cannot trust the people to trust themselves.

Pierre Lemieux has similar thoughts.

The Great Reset

The New Neo warns,

The COVID pandemic was a big test of an approach called the Great Reset, and the reaction has let The Great Reset’s proponents know that they can go ahead. The Great Reset is no shadowy conspiracy theory; it’s right out there in the open. See this from the World Economic Forum, September 2020 (emphasis mine – and note some of the phrases with which we’re already familiar from the Obama years)

Read the whole post. I need hardly tell you how disturbed I am by the Great Reset idea.

Outlaw social media censorship?

Samuel E. Miller writes,

Owners of real property know that both contractual covenants and statutes can restrict freedom of use. . .

Why should limitations to the otherwise free use of private property not extend to private property owned by tech giants? Congress could, for example, enact a statute prohibiting social media companies from tampering with non-criminal speech on their platforms.

An interesting take. Regulate the platforms by obligating them not to censor. Pretty much the opposite of what most people want, which is for the companies to apply censorship the “right way,” whatever that is. From the best magazine on the Web, Quillette.