The Nuclear Option

From an article in Scientific American.

“If we are serious about tackling emissions and climate change, no climate-neutral source should be ignored,” argues Staffan Qvist, a physicist at Uppsala University, who led the effort to develop this nuclear plan. “The mantra ‘nuclear can’t be done quickly enough to tackle climate change’ is one of the most pervasive in the debate today and mostly just taken as true, while the data prove the exact opposite.”

The report claims that nuclear power could replace all fossil-fuel electricity generation within thirty years.

I personally would rather see how some newer designs work, both in terms of safety and cost, before advocating a lot of nuclear power plant construction.

Environmental News

1. From the Boston Globe.

The research, published this week in Nature, drew on global satellite imagery and more than 400,000 sample counts from forests around the world in order to estimate that there are currently 3.04 trillion trees on earth. This is 750 percent more than the previous best estimate, which was 400 billion.

Pointer from Tyler Cowen. Even though the estimate of the number of trees may be much higher, I gather that this does not necessarily change estimates of the total biomass of trees. Otherwise, I would say that the inputs to climate models might need some adjustment.

2. From Katherine Mangu-Ward.

The Blue Ocean Society for Marine Conservation is just one organization among many that claim that more than 1 million birds and 100,000 marine mammals and sea turtles die each year from eating or getting entangled in plastic.

Morris and Seasholes reconstructed an elaborate game of statistical telephone to source this figure back to a study funded by the Canadian government that tracked loss of marine animals in Newfoundland as a result of incidental catch and entanglement in fishing gear from 1981 to 1984. Importantly, this three-decade-old study had nothing to do with plastic bags at all.

Overall, the five-cent bag tax appears to be a case of regulatory miscalculation.

Hunter-Gatherer Economics and Sustainability

To many environmentalists, sustainability means leaving the world the way you found it. I think that this may reflect the instincts of a hunter-gatherer.

If you are a hunter-gatherer, how much you can eat is limited by the natural rate of replenishment. If you eat game or plants faster than they are replenished, your tribe will die.

Modern human welfare is not governed by replenishment. We use knowledge to add value to our environment. Cultivation of crops means that we can grow more food than we could obtain by gathering. And we apply ever-increasing ingenuity to this cultivation.

Sustainability of modern life is thus much more complex than sustainability of hunter-gathering. Our modern ancestors have left us the gifts of their ingenuity, so that what they took out of nature has not hurt our welfare. And we are likely to do the same for our descendants.

Ron Bailey’s New Book

It is called The End of Doom. From the final paragraph:

New technologies and wealth produced by human creativity will spark a vast environmental renewal in this century. . .the world will be populated with fewer and much wealthier people living mostly in cities fueled by cheap no-carbon energy sources. As the amount of land and sea needed to supply human needs decreases, both cities and wild nature will expand, with nature occupying or reoccupying the bulk of the land and sea freed up by human ingenuity.

Other notes:

1. Bailey is another devotee of North, Wallis, and Weingast. He argues that open access orders achieves sustainability, but limited-access orders do not and hence collapse. He worries less about environmental doomsday than about the United States slipping back into a limited-access order, in which political elites and business cronies are able to thwart human ingenuity.

2. From the introduction:

Canadian environmental researcher Vaclav Smil calculates that back in 1920 in the United States it took about 10 ounces of materials to produce a dollar’s worth of value, but that same value is now accomplished using only about 2.5 ounces

3. Also from the introduction:

wherever someone sees an environmental predicament in the world. . .the problem is occurring in an open-access commons, an area no one owns and for whose stewardship no one is responsible.

He is a fan of fish farms and private ownership of aquifers. For atmospheric pollution, such as chlorofluorocarbons that threaten the ozone layer, he sees a role for international treaties and regulations.

Bailey spoke here, and I enjoyed attending the talk.

Timothy Taylor on Coal’s Resurgence

He cites in particular a paper by Jan Christoph Steckel, Ottmar Edenhofer, and Michael Jakob. Of all of the factors affecting carbon dioxide emissions, the most important is probably the increase in the carbon intensity of energy use in Asia and in developing countries, fueled (so to speak) by coal. Taylor notes that simply going for a global crackdown on coal use would punish countries that are well behind the U.S. and other developed countries in terms of wealth. He concludes,

if you aren’t a big supporter of near-term, large-scale, non-coal methods of producing electricity around the world, you aren’t really serious about reducing global carbon emissions.

The Subsidizer’s Calculation Problem

The NBER Digest summarizes a paper by Stephen Holland and others.

Using data from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the Energy Information Administration, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, and other sources, the authors analyze energy use and emissions over a three-year period, from 2007 through 2009. They track energy production and consumption by the hour of the day within different regions. They conclude that on net, in the western United States and in Texas, driving PEVs would result in lower carbon-dioxide emissions than driving fuel-efficient hybrid cars. But in other regions, such as the upper Midwest, where the fuel mix for electricity generation is more heavily tilted toward coal, the charging of PEV batteries during the recommended hours of midnight to 4 AM could result in more emissions than those associated with the average car now on the road. “Underlying this result is a fundamental tension between load management of electricity and achieving environmental goals,” the authors conclude. “The hours when electricity is the least expensive to produce tend to be the hours with the greatest emissions.”

In addition, the fact that electric cars are subsidized suggests to me that their production uses more resources than that of ordinary cars. That probably includes more energy.

Do markets price cars efficiently, given that emissions are an externality? Of course not. But that does not mean the regulators and subsidizers know enough to make matters better.

Capitalism Bee Sustainable

Shawn Regan writes,

Last year, riding the buzz over dying bees, the Obama administration announced the creation of a pollinator-health task force to develop a “federal strategy” to promote honeybees and other pollinators. Last month the task force unveiled its long-awaited plan, the National Strategy to Promote the Health of Honey Bees and Other Pollinators. The plan aims to reduce honeybee-colony losses to “sustainable” levels and create 7 million acres of pollinator-friendly habitat. It also calls for more than $82 million in federal funding to address pollinator health.

But here’s something you probably haven’t heard: There are more honeybee colonies in the United States today than there were when colony collapse disorder began in 2006. In fact, according to data released in March by the Department of Agriculture, U.S. honeybee-colony numbers are now at a 20-year high. And those colonies are producing plenty of honey. U.S. honey production is also at a 10-year high.

He goes on to describe how market forces cause beekeepers to enhance the bee population, in spite of other forces that cause decline.

Note that the title of this post is supposed to be (bee?) a pun.

Sustainable Capitalism

Jesse Ausubel writes,

Agriculture has always been the greatest raper of nature, stripping and simplifying and regimenting it, and reducing acreage left. Then, in America, in about 1940 acreage and yield decoupled. Since about 1940 American farmers have quintupled corn while using the same or even less land. Corn matters because it towers over other crops, totaling more tons than wheat, soy, rice, and potatoes together

The title of this post contains a redundancy. Capitalism is inherently sustainable, relentlessly producing more human satisfaction using fewer resources. What environmentalists call “sustainability” ought to be called primitivism, producing less human satisfaction using more resources. Read Ausubel’s entire piece.

MIT Report on Solar Energy

The executive summary says, in part,

to increase the contribution of solar energy to long-term climate change mitigation, we strongly recommend that a large fraction of federal resources available for solar research and development focus on environmentally benign, emerging thin-fi lm technologies that are based on Earth-abundant materials. The recent shift of federal dollars for solar R&D away from fundamental research of this sort to focus on near-term cost reductions in c-Si technology should be reversed.

Interesting, since there has been such a strong MIT connection at the Department of Energy in recent years.

Although at a high level the report is favorable toward government support for solar energy, in terms of specifics it is often highly critical. My guess is that the outlook for improvement is poor. The beneficiaries of the current inefficient system of subsidies know who they are. There is probably little or no benefit to politicians to be had from following the recommendations of the report. Still, it looks like a great report to have out there.