What’s wrong with books?

Andy Matuschak writes,

Picture some serious non-fiction tomes. The Selfish Gene; Thinking, Fast and Slow; Guns, Germs, and Steel; etc. Have you ever had a book like this—one you’d read—come up in conversation, only to discover that you’d absorbed what amounts to a few sentences? I’ll be honest: it happens to me regularly. Often things go well at first. I’ll feel I can sketch the basic claims, paint the surface; but when someone asks a basic probing question, the edifice instantly collapses. Sometimes it’s a memory issue: I simply can’t recall the relevant details. But just as often, as I grasp about, I’ll realize I had never really understood the idea in question, though I’d certainly thought I understood when I read the book. Indeed, I’ll realize that I had barely noticed how little I’d absorbed until that very moment.

…All this suggests a peculiar conclusion: as a medium, books are surprisingly bad at conveying knowledge, and readers mostly don’t realize it.

I think that there are two groups to blame: readers and writers.

As Matuschak points out, readers do not read actively enough. I have pointed out that I read a nonfiction book with an eye toward reviewing it. As I read, I am thinking in terms of summarizing each idea in my own words and of coming up with a critique.

Book authors pad too much. Sometimes, I will finish writing a book review and say to myself, “If people read this review, they don’t have to read the book.”

In my opinion, the educational return on investment for the consumer is highest on essays and blog posts. Books are next.

Podcasts are difficult to compare with written materials. One of their advantages is that you can listen while doing something that keeps you from reading, which means that the opportunity cost can be low. Another advantage is that sometimes a conversation is more stimulating than a monologue. But when you could be reading, that is more likely to be educational than listening to a podcast.

One thing about books is that a lot of effort goes into them. Authors spend time working on them. Editors spend time screening them. Editors and others spend time making suggestions about them.

Another thing about books is that they are focal. People can use heuristics like “What are the best-selling books”? or “Who are the authors I’ve heard of?” But even if you do that, before you read the book you should search for an essay by the author that is based on or is the basis for the book.

My guess is that writers could contribute more at the margin by blogging than by composing books. But perhaps blogging is a more difficult skill.

The future and the auto-didact

Yuval Noah Harari wrote,

in the 21st century, we are flooded with enormous amounts of information, and the censors don’t even try to block it. Instead, they are busy spreading misinformation or distracting us with irrelevancies. If you live in some provincial Mexican town and have a smartphone, you can spend many lifetimes just reading Wikipedia, watching TED Talks, and taking free online courses. No government can hope to conceal all the information it doesn’t like. On the other hand, it is alarmingly easy to inundate the public with conflicting reports and red herrings.

That quote should be filed under “Martin Gurri watch.” But what I really want to get to in this post is Harari’s thoughts on the implication of accelerating cultural evolution. He implicitly agrees that the future belongs to auto-didacts.

Unfortunately, teaching kids to embrace the unknown while maintaining their mental balance is far more difficult than teaching them an equation in physics or the causes of the First World War. You cannot learn resilience by reading a book or listening to a lecture. Teachers themselves usually lack the mental flexibility that the 21st century demands since they themselves are the product of the old educational system.

…So the best advice I can give a 15-year-old stuck in an outdated school somewhere in Mexico, India, or Alabama is: don’t rely on the adults too much. Most of them mean well, but they just don’t understand the world. In the past, it was a relatively safe bet to follow the adults, because they knew the world quite well, and the world changed slowly. But the 21st century is going to be different. Because of the increasing pace of change, you can never be certain whether what the adults are telling you is timeless wisdom or outdated bias.

My advice to 15-year-olds is to treat what I have to say as timeless wisdom, even though I am at an age where I probably lack mental flexibility and what I write may come across as outdated bias.

Another elderly person with timeless wisdom is Peggy Noonan, who writes,

Avoid elite universities if you can; they’re too often indoctrination mills anyway. Aim at smaller, second-tier colleges, places of low-key harmony, religiously affiliated when possible—and get a real education. Every school has a library. Every library has books. That’s what you need.

If you missed her piece, entitled “Kids, Don’t Become Success Robots,” be sure to read it.

Null Hypothesis watch

Eric A. Hanushek, Paul E. Peterson, Laura M. Talpey and Ludger Woessmann write,

We find that the socioeconomic achievement gap among the 1950s birth cohorts is very large—about 1.0 standard deviations between those in the top and bottom deciles of the socioeconomic distribution (the “90–10 gap”) and around 0.8 standard deviations between those in the top and bottom quartiles (the “75–25 gap”). These are very extensive disparities, as 1 standard deviation is approximately the difference in the average performance of students in 4th and 8th grades, or four years’ worth of learning. But though these inequalities are large, they have neither increased nor decreased significantly over the past 50 years.

It could be, however, that the picture is not as dismal as suggested. If overall changes in society, coupled with policy initiatives, have proportionately lifted all boats at the same rate, everybody might be better-off, even if gaps have not significantly changed. Using the same data as for the gap analysis, we find gains in average student performance of about 0.5 standard deviations for students at age 14, or roughly 0.1 standard deviations per decade. But, surprisingly, over the last quarter century, those gains disappear for students by age 17. In other words, there is no rising tide for students as they leave school for college and careers.

The lack of progress is not due to lack of spending. In an op-ed piece, two of the authors point out that

Since 1980 the federal government has spent almost $500 billion (in 2017 dollars) on compensatory education and another $250 billion on Head Start programs for low-income preschoolers. Forty-five states, acting under court orders, threats or settlements, have directed money specifically to their neediest districts.

And overall, of course, inflation-adjusted spending per pupil in the U.S. more than doubled between 1970 and 2006.

I should note that the authors themselves are not devotees of the null hypothesis. Instead, they call for more efforts to improve teacher quality and to address the issue of “fade-out” of achievement gains between age 14 and age 17.

Academia: what is the scandal?

1. Tyler Cowen writes,

these bribes only mattered because college itself has become too easy, with a few exceptions. If the bribes allowed for the admission of unqualified students, then those students would find it difficult to finish their degrees. Yet most top schools tolerate rampant grade inflation and gently shepherd their students toward graduation. That’s because they realize that today’s students (and their parents) are future donors (and potential complainers on social media). It is easier for professors and administrators not to rock the boat. What does that say about standards at these august institutions of higher learning?

The fundamental scandal is that elite colleges are a positional good for parents. The whole process is built around that. Colleges go all-out to recruit applicants in order to issue large numbers of rejections and thereby show that they are selective. As Tyler points out, when it comes to deciding who gets to graduate, these same colleges are hardly selective at all.

Imagine a different world, in which colleges abolish their admissions departments. Let anyone apply. If demand exceeds the available slots, then use a lottery. Grade rigorously, so that unqualified students flunk out. Parents who think too highly of their children will end up wasting tuition money. That seems like a more just world to me.

2. Daniel Klein on the ideological groupthink of academia.

There are many important points, including the tendency that once you have a solid majority with one viewpoint, they tend to lose touch with and demonize other viewpoints.

Pointer from Bryan Caplan, who seems to think it doesn’t matter, because nobody listens to those silly professors, anyway. I think Bryan is wrong on that. Some day, he may find himself living under an authoritarian regime because enough people do listen to these leftist professors. He may even find himself not protected by his own bubble.

In my view (2) is the real scandal. What I resented most when I saw the “admissions cheating” scandal was that these parents actually wanted so badly to get their kids into these schools. I think that the worst mistake that I made as a parent was sending my youngest daughter to one of the more prestigious colleges. If I were given a do-over, I would bribe that admissions office to issue a rejection.

Learning concepts vs. asking questions

On my essay on Minerva, a commenter writes,

It seems to me that centralization and hierarchies can be useful in contexts where a unitary goal exists and where information is concentrated (e.g. performing surgery, waging war). On the other hand, decentralization and emergent approaches are useful when multiple/unclear goals exist and information is dispersed/local (e.g. politics, consumption choices).

Applying this to education, centralization (e.g. adherence to lessons plans, strong professor guidance) should then be relatively more useful when students are first learning a concept they are unfamiliar with since the goal is clear (learn the concept) and information is concentrated (with the professor). On the other hand, decentralization (e.g. open-ended discussions, student-led activities) is relatively more useful when students are applying concepts they have already learned since the goal becomes less defined (deepening knowledge can occur in many ways) and information is now dispersed (students can bring in their own views once the concept is understood).

Think of two ways of learning to read. The centralized way is for a teacher to systematically explain the letters and how they form words. The decentralized way is to sit in your parent’s lap while they read and to acquire reading skills by gradually learning to associate the symbols on the page with what the parent is saying. The parent responds to your curiosity about the symbols on the page. I think that we tend to over-estimate the efficacy of the centralized approach and to under-appreciate the role of the decentralized approach.

At a college level, think about concepts as tools to answer questions. So if I learn accounting, I have a tool that I can use to analyze a business.

With a centralized approach to education, you teach accounting, and you tell students, “You are going to need this.” With a decentralized approach, you trust that the students who become interested in analyzing businesses will sooner or later become interested and motivated to learn accounting.

When I say that the future belongs to auto-didacts, I am saying that a motivated college student should be capable of coming up with questions that serve to direct that student’s learning. The best role for a professor is to be a guide or mentor.

The Minerva education model

I wrote about Minerva, which is a new college that strips out a lot of the fluff of higher education and tries to focus on core habits of mind and foundational concepts.

To me, it seems plausible that students who choose to apply to Minerva are unusually focused on learning, as opposed to dating opportunities or sports or other features that attract students to colleges. Thus, if these particularly learning-motivated students had not gone to Minerva, they might during their freshman year have made just as much progress, or more, elsewhere.

Readers will recognize the Null Hypothesis lurking the background of my thoughts. But read the entire essay before commenting.

A conservative case for countervailing power?

Ross Douthat writes,

The earlier conservative self-understanding, in which the right was defending nongovernmental institutions against the power of the state, tacitly depended on the assumption that many if not most nongovernmental institutions would be friendly to conservative values. But as civil society has decayed over recent decades, its remaining power centers have also become increasingly left-wing.

. . .Yet conservatives can still win the White House and the Congress, which means that the one power center they can hope to control is the one they are notionally organized to limit — the administrative state.

Pointer from Tyler Cowen. To me, Douthat seems to be saying that since conservatives have been driven out of universities, mainstream media, and entertainment, they need to get hold of government to counterbalance this. I disagree with the proposed solution.

It reminds me of the early Progressive notion of “countervailing power.” The idea was that the emergence of large corporations starting in the late 19th century made market capitalism unfair to ordinary individuals. Government could serve as a countervailing power to offset the new corporate power.

I have two main reasons to be skeptical of the idea of conservatives using government as a countervailing power with respect to leftist cultural institutions. Instead, I think you have to strike directly at the cultural institutions.

1. If the cultural institutions are strongly left, then conservatives are not going to succeed in capturing government.

2. I think that the most effective countervailing power would consist of alternatives. Alternative media have been helpful in limiting the damage of mainstream media. I think that alternative educational approaches are the best hope for limiting the damage caused by public education and elite colleges.

Our goal should be to nourish primary education and higher learning that is not steeped in leftist ideology. The first thing to do is stop making gifts to existing colleges and universities. Instead of donating to that new grandiose fundraising campaign at your alma mater, put that money into some innovative higher education initiative.

Also, resist increases in funding for public education. Without more funding, the public school systems will be so burdened by pension obligations that they will have to scrimp on classroom education, and parents will turn to other means. That will encourage parents to turn to home schooling, private supplemental education, and independent learning for their children. As they make more choices for themselves, most parents will prioritize knowledge over ideology for their own chilren.

An argument for home schooling

Jay Schalin writes,

According to her National Academy of Education biography, Ladson-Billings is “known for her groundbreaking work in the fields of Culturally Relevant Pedagogy and Critical Race Theory.” Ladson-Billings once wrote that “we educators should align our scholarship with the philosophy of Marcus Garvey: race first!”

He found that she is the author most used in schools of education. The rest of the top ten authors seem to be equally hard left. The article links to his full study.

Null Hypothesis watch

James W. Banks, Leandro S. Carvalho, and Francisco Perez-Arce write,

This article studies the causal effect of education on decision-making. In 1972 England raised its minimum school-leaving age from 15 to 16 for students born after September 1, 1957. An online survey was conducted with 2,700 individuals born in a 36-month window on either side of this date. Participants made 25 incentivized risk choices that allow us to measure multiple dimensions of decision-making. Despite the policy having effects on education, educational qualifications, and income, we find no effects of the policy on decision-making or decision-making quality.

Thanks to a reader for the pointer. This sounds like a win for both the Null Hypothesis and Bryan Caplan’s signaling story.

Business plan for a new elite university

Frederick M. Hess and Brendan Bell write,

What is needed. . .is a place where serious scholars can have the space to pursue questions and subjects that don’t fit the progressive orthodoxy at today’s most prestigious institutions of higher learning. We need an incubator where promising young intellectuals could pursue their research without being forced to conform to the prevailing ideology, and where they can find the scaffolding — employment, funding, networks, and publication outlets — to enable them to achieve independent viability. What is needed is an ivory tower of our own.

Their goal is to set up a secular institution to compete with the Progressive religious seminaries. They put together a business plan for a new elite university that would host roughly 5000 undergraduates and 1500 graduate students. Their calculations suggest that such an enterprise would run at an operating loss of $50 million per year and also require $1.5 billion in initial capital to acquire land and build facilities.

Recently, I read Building the Intentional University, a book about the Minerva University, edited by founders Stephen M. Kosslyn and Ben Nelson. Their goal is not to ape existing universities but to redesign undergraduate education from scratch to make it more effective and less costly. I find this a more interesting project, although I am have some qualms about their approach.

In my opinion, if you are motivated to learn about something, you can find online resources that will be at least as good as what college students get, and perhaps better. I say that the future belongs to auto-didacts. Moreover, as William Gibson is reported to have put it, the future is here–it’s just not evenly distributed.

Seemingly related, from Scott Beauchamp,

perhaps the most subversive act is to learn without the authoritarian “assistance” of the typical modern university