Doubts about teacher value added

Marianne Bitner and others write,

Using administrative data from New York City, we find estimated teacher “effects” on height that are comparable in magnitude to actual teacher effects on math and ELA achievement, 0.22: compared to 0.29: and 0.26: respectively. On its face, such results raise concerns about the validity of these models.

. . .our results provide a cautionary tale for the naïve application of VAMs to teacher
evaluation and other settings. They point to the possibility of the misidentification of sizable teacher
“effects” where none exist. These effects may be due in part to spurious variation driven by the typically
small samples of children used to estimate a teacher’s individual effect.

VAMs = value-added measures. Pointer from a reader. I note that some recent NBER working papers are now free downloads. Others are not. This one is.

Lest you miss the point, this paper shows that the same methods that purport to show an effect of teachers on student achievement also show an effect of teachers on student height. But the effect of teachers on height is almost surely spurious. So the effect of teachers on achievement may also be spurious.

1. This provides vindication for Jerry Muller’s The Tyranny of Metrics.

2. It provides support for the Null Hypothesis.

3. The research that seemed to show a big effect of teachers (e.g., Raj Chetty on kindergarten teachers) got a lot of play in the press. But that had social desirability bias going for it. I would be surprised if this paper receives similar notice.

Concerning Twitter

Glenn Reynolds says,

Social media have their function, but the superiority of the old blogosphere — the internet as it existed say in 2006 — is that it’s a loosely coupled system. Bloggers could be as obnoxious as they wanted, and if you didn’t like them, you just didn’t go read their blog. And it didn’t really affect much of anything else.

Pointer from a commenter. I agree with most of the interview.

I have not read Reynolds’ book, but this sounds like the essence:

these social media platforms, which cram a bunch of people together with no effort of sanitation – and honestly, the way the algorithms are designed, they basically encourage people to fling poo at each other — allow for the spread of toxic ideas, fake news, irrational ideations and such, with no control for people whose immune systems, mental immune systems, were not really designed to withstand that.

As Reynolds points out, Twitter is elegantly suited to forming self-organizing mobs. In my view, blogging is elegantly suited to forming self-organizing discussions. That is what makes “academic Twitter” such a mystery to me. I would think that more academics would prefer participating in blogs to participating in Twitter, but my impression is that in reality it is nearly the opposite.

Reductionist progressivism

1. Robby Soave writes about a math curriculum proposal in Seattle,

This is verbatim from the proposal: Students will be able to “identify the inherent inequities of the standardized testing system used to oppress and marginalize people and communities of color,” “explain how math has been used to exploit natural resources,” and “explain how math dictates economic oppression.” Each of these statements are debatable, but they are not being presented as such. It would be one thing to hold a class discussion about the strengths and weaknesses of standardized testing, but what’s happening here is that students are being trained to reject standardized testing due to its “inherent inequity,” which is asserted as some kind of proven fact.

2. Philip Carl Salzman writes,

no one was quicker to adopt grievance “social justice” than university administrators, who have hired thousands of “diversity and inclusion officers,” including at the highest levels of administration for salaries up to half a million dollars a year, to police thoughts and speech among students and faculty. A sideline is enforcing Obama administration Title IX demands that they persecute male students that any female complains about. With their “social justice” police force in place, administrators have gone on to establish racial segregation in housing, eating facilities, and university salaries, and well as to admit, fund, hire and promote on the basis of sex, gender, race, and ethnicity. Every American criterion of merit, universal values, democracy, and due process has been thrown out by just about every university administration.

If you are in the mood for a rant, read Salzman’s entire essay.

3. And if you are in a mood for another rant, there is Victor Davis Hanson.

A typical college-admission application is loaded with questions to the high-school applicant about gender, equality, and bias rather than about math, language, or science achievements. How have you suffered rather than what you know and wish to learn seems more important for admission. The therapeutic mindset preps the student to consider himself a victim of cosmic forces, past and present, despite belonging to the richest, most leisured, and most technologically advanced generation in history. Without a shred of gratitude, the young student learns to blame his ancestors for what he is told is wrong in his life, without noticing how the dead made sure that almost everything around him would be an improvement over 2,500 years of Western history.

He just takes off from there.

I never meant for the oppressor-oppressed axis to define progressivism. Eliminating consideration of all other causal factors in the world might be termed reductionist progressivism.

Two articles on assortative mating

Both from Quillette, which is what you should read instead of Twitter or Facebook.

1. Branko Milanovic summarizes a variety of findings, including

high-earning young American men who in the 1970s were just as likely to marry high-earning as low-earning young women now display an almost three-to- one preference in favor of high-earning women. An even more dramatic change happened for women: the percentage of young high-earning women marrying young high-earning men increased from just under 13 percent to 26.4 percent, while the percentage of rich young women marrying poor young men halved. From having no preference between rich and poor men in the 1970s, women currently prefer rich men by a ratio of almost five to one.

Read the whole essay.

2. Daniel Friedman writes,

A spot-check of a few dozen elite and selective schools suggests that there is near gender parity at the most elite private universities, and perhaps a slight tilt toward women among selective private schools and public flagships, but not one nearly as dramatic as the nationwide numbers would lead you to believe.

…In fact, it is the least selective schools that are driving the national gender gap in bachelor’s degrees. For example, at for-profit colleges, most of which have very low admissions standards, 63 percent of students are female.

He argues that the least selective schools do not confer such high status. He claims that a woman who graduates with a nursing degree or a teaching degree is not higher status than a man who becomes an electrician without a college degree. In terms of income, this may be true. But will the teacher be willing to marry the electrician?

In any case, I don’t think Friedman’s analysis is inconsistent with Milanovic’s data.

Aid to higher education

Ryan Craig advocates,

  • Requiring colleges and universities to restructure degree programs to ensure students achieve industry-recognized (stackable) credentials.
  • Mandating colleges and universities to provide experiential learning (work experience) as part of degree programs.
  • Limiting short-term Pell funding to programs offered in conjunction with a qualified employer or industry group, to make sure that beneficiaries acquire the skills that lead to good, middle income jobs.
  • Providing a new basis for government aid to education: not for delivering educational programs, but for achieving graduate placement into a “good job.”

I think that the very top tier of schools would and should resist this, but they should not be getting aid in any case.

My cynical view is that you cannot structure aid to higher education in such a way that the schools won’t just use it to continue to operate as they do currently.

On college administrators and schools of education

Musa al-Gharbi argues that the progressive left has successfully conquered university administration and schools of education.

As Sam Abrams’ research has shown, college administrators hail predominantly from the arts, humanities and social sciences. Graduates of these fields often have a distressingly limited understanding of how, concretely, many social institutions operate – and how, specifically, these institutions might be leveraged to achieve particular ends. However, those who gravitate towards administration often do understand, or come to understand, how to ‘work the (higher ed) system.’ And one of the key things they have done with this institutional knowledge is expand the size and influence of the administrative class itself.

…Perhaps the most genius aspect this approach (targeting ed schools) is the indirectness. This strategy was implemented in a very deliberate, systematic, forward-thinking way by a constellation of activists, scholars and practitioners (who were very explicit about the political goals of their pedagogical approach!). Nonetheless, when their efforts began to come to fruition, it appeared as though it was a spontaneous, organic, student-driven movement. Young people reached (elite) universities, and increasingly the workplace (in particular industries), attempting to mold these institutions in accordance with the logics that have been inculcated into them since primary school — by teachers executing the curricula designed by these activists, practitioners and scholars. Yet rather than taking up their disagreement with the people who had designed said curricula, who had laid out these modes of thought and engagement, critics were instead forced to contend with the students themselves — by then, true believers. The optics of this were not great (for the critics, that is, who came off as reactionary, out of touch, overly-judgmental, etc. for their apparent denigration of the students and their views).

Some random notes of my own.

1. I suspect that a lot of the growth in college administration serves to provide an employment safety-valve for people earning degrees, especially Ph.D’s, that are not very marketable.

2. My high school experience definitely preceded the leftist take-over of schools of education. My freshman year, the principal brought in Up With People to perform for us. They struck me as an attempt to promote social conformity, so that we wouldn’t become hippies or Vietnam War resisters. I told those around me that this was a right-wing propaganda exercise. The experience stuck with me, primarily because when I voiced my suspicions a very attractive classmate sneered at me, “Arnold, you have no soul.”

3. I don’t think that those of us on the right should try to make an issue of the political orientation of college administrators or at schools of education. Instead, I think that we should push for intellectual rigor in college courses and in education research and policy. I would rather make my stand on the cause of intellectual rigor than on the cause of political balance.

4. My father was a college administrator in the 1970s, as Dean of Arts and Sciences and later Provost at Washington University. The environment was different in those days. Continue reading

Did you two visit the same research?

These two books, both from Princeton University Press, struck me as taking very different views about the prospects for policy interventions to affect cognitive ability.

1. Jonathan Rothwell, an economist, wrote Republic of Equals. p. 291:

As I’ve argued, there is no logical or scientific basis for hereditarianism. The best available genetic research shows that the heritability of IQ has been greatly exaggerated, even within the same age group and by greater amounts across generations or societies at different levels of economic development. The environmental origins of the massive two-standard-deviation increase in cognitive ability over the past 100 years are themselves powerful evidence that genes cannot account for more than a modest share of variation across individuals.

p. 285:

At the heart of this book is the claim that equal access to education would have profoundly pro-egalitarian effects on the distribution of IQ, income, and wealth, among other good things.

2. Kevin Mitchell, a neuropsychologist, wrote Innate. He emphasizes that variation in brain structure occurs during gestation, meaning between conception and birth. p. 9:

In sum, the way our individual brains get wired depends not just on our genetic makeup, but also on how the program of development happens to play out. This is a key point. It means that even if the variation in many of our traits is only partly genetic, this does not necessarily imply that the rest of the variation is environmental in origin or attributable to nurture—much of it may be developmental. Variation in our individual behavioral tendencies and capacities may be even more innate than genetic effects alone would suggest.

and p. 53:

Many studies have looked for systematic associations between specific environmental factors or experiences that differ between siblings and specific behavioral outcomes. These typically fall under a number of categories including differential parenting, peer relationships, sibling interaction, teacher relationships, and what is known as “family constellation” (birth order, age difference between siblings, whether or not they are the same gender, etc.). The results from these studies are very clear. They have failed to identify any robust, consistent, or substantial effects on any of a variety of outcomes including adjustment, personality measures, or cognitive ability.

This struck me as a generalized form ot the Null Hypothesis.

Against the Null Hypothesis?

1. Jo Craven McGinty in the WSJ:

Decades after the end of legalized segregation, and the funding disparities that accompanied it, minority students remain disproportionately concentrated in high-poverty areas. Academically, they trail students in more affluent areas, and they fall increasingly behind as the years pass. The result is an achievement gap that limits the educational and career opportunities of nonwhite children.

She refers to a study by Sean F. Reardon and others. The abstract reads

In this paper we estimate the effects of current-day school segregation on racial achievement gaps. We use 8 years of data from all public school districts in the U.S. We find that racial school segregation is strongly associated with the magnitude of achievement gaps in 3rd grade, and with the rate at which gaps grow from third to eighth grade. The association of racial segregation with achievement gaps is completely accounted for by racial differences in school poverty: racial segregation appears to be harmful because it concentrates minority students in high-poverty schools, which are, on average, less effective than lower-poverty schools. Finally, we conduct exploratory analyses to examine potential mechanisms through which differential enrollment in high-poverty schools leads to inequality. We find that the effects of school poverty do not appear to be explained by differences in the set of measurable teacher or school characteristics available to us.

The last sentence appears to support the Null Hypothesis. But the study and McGinty’s interpretation clearly assume that placing a child in a high-poverty school will worsen that child’s educational outcome. One possibility is that peer effects are strong, as the late Judith Rich Harris claimed. Another possibility, more consistent with the Null Hypothesis, is that the relationship between neighborhood poverty and school outcomes is not causal.

McGinty cites a paper by Raj Chetty and others that finds that moving to a different school affects educational outcomes. If these results are causal, then this would be evidence against the Null Hypothesis. But I am not convinced that moving to a different school district is unrelated to the characteristics of the parents and hence of the children.

2. Angelo Codevilla writes,

During Word War II, only 4 percent of some 18 million draftees were illiterate. Despite (or because?) of massive expenditures on education over the subsequent two decades, 27 percent of the Vietnam war’s draftees were judged functionally illiterate. Between 1955 and 1991, the inflation-adjusted average K-12 per-pupil expenditure in America rose 350 percent. In 1972, 2,817 students scored 750 or better on each half of the SAT. By 1994, only 1,438 made this score though the test had been made easier. Today, U.S. 15 year olds rank 24th out of 71 countries in science, and 38th in math. In 2018, college students spent less than a third of the time their grandparents did studying for their classes.

If you believe the Null Hypothesis, then this must be due to a worsening the innate characteristics of American children. To blame the education system, you have to believe that the Null Hypothesis is not true, and that the education establishment has found ways to achieve worse outcomes.

Either possibility is distressing.

High school and community service

Lauren Bauer and others write,

The teen labor force participation rate reached an all-time peak in 1979 (57.9 percent) and gradually declined until about 2000, when it then dropped precipitously to a 2010–18 plateau of about 35 percent (figure 1). While the participation rate of prime-age workers (25- to 54-year-olds) has edged down since its peak in the late 1990s and older workers’ (55- to 64-year-olds) participation has increased, the scale of the shift in teen participation dwarfs these other changes.

One of the factors reducing teen labor force participation is that high schoolers have less time for work. Included in the list of time impositions is my pet peeve: the requirement for “community service hours.” My line is that community service is for convicted criminals, but high school students are innocent.

I would like to see more young people gaining experience in working for a profit. “Community service” does the opposite.

Racial disparities in major-switching

John S. Rosenberg writes,

Duke economist Peter Arcidiacono, the expert witness for the plaintiffs in SFFA v. Harvard, has shown that at Duke, 62% of entering black freshman expressed an interest in majoring in natural sciences, engineering, or economics (compared to 61% of whites), but less than 30% graduated with a major in those fields (compared to 51% of whites). In his major study of Duke, “What Happens After Enrollment?” Arcidiacono and his co-authors found that “Over 54% of black men who express an initial interest in majoring in the natural sciences, engineering, or economics switch to the humanities or social sciences compared to less than 8% of white men.”

Recruiting under-qualified students and setting them up to fail, or lowering the bar for their success, is called “inclusion.” I’m sorry to have to be so blunt, but that is the way it looks to anyone who has not drunk the social justice movement’s Kool-Aid.

There are women and minorities who can handle STEM majors, and it’s not fair to them to say that it’s the content of the courses that needs to change to accommodate students who can’t handle them.