Robert Plomin talks his book

In the WSJ, Robert Plomin writes,

DNA is the major systematic influence making us who we are as individuals. Environmental influences are important too, but what look like systematic effects of the environment are often genetic effects in disguise: Parents respond to their children’s genetically driven traits, and children seek, modify and even create experiences correlated with their genetic propensities.

His book is Blueprint, which I just finished. His thesis:

DNA is the only thing that makes a substantial systematic difference, accounting for 50 percent of the variance in psychological traits. The rest comes down to chance environmental experiences that do not have long-term effects.

What he calls “chance environmental experiences” could be measurement error. Measurement error always holds down correlation. This raises the possibility that some traits that are measured with error are more heritable than they appear. For example, Gregory Clark found that social status is much more heritable across many generations than would be expected based on parent-child heritability estimates. I explained that this is likely due to error in measurement in social status, which lowers immediate-generation correlation more than multi-generation correlation.

Educational interventions are apparent environmental influences that wear off over time. You raise a test score but do not fundamentally alter ability. That is an element of what I call the Null Hypothesis, which Plomin strongly endorses, although of course he does not use that term. Related: Scott Alexander on pre-school.

This is one of the most important books of the year. Coincidentally, the NYT has an article on economists’ use of polygenic scores. Tyler and Alex both linked to it.

But you should know that I came away from Plomin’s book less than impressed with polygenic scoring. So much data mining. So little predictive value. Also, there is serious criticism of his view that environmental factors exhibit no systematic influence, but he does not confront it. I did a search inside the Kindle edition for “Flynn” and found no results.

Road to sociology watch

“The Scholar’s Stage” writes,

Haidt et. al. are confident they can win the debate if they are allowed to debate. For the heterodox anthropologist or sociologist the game is already over: their discipline has already been conquered. For the economist, the threat is too remote to take seriously. Behavioral science exists in that rare in-between: methodologically, it has the tools to fight back against the excesses of the activist. Socially, it provides a compelling reason for its practitioners to use them.

Pointer from Tyler CowenAlex Tabarrok. The entire post is interesting, and it is worth contemplating why the blogger chooses to remain anonymous.

I am pessimistic about academia. Go through the following exercise:

1. When I ask you to name a prominent individual under the age of 45 who speaks up for reason against dogma, who comes to mind?

2. Does the person you just named have an academic job?

It looks to me as though when Haidt and Pinker leave the scene, no one will replace them. And I think that the threat in economics is not all that remote. I am on record as predicting that in twenty years economics will look like sociology.

Razib Khan on Harvard’s admissions strategy

Khan writes,

a few years ago the president of Harvard declared that the institution was all about inclusion. On the face of it that is just a bald-faced lie, and everyone knows it. Harvard is about exclusion, selection, and curation. “Inclusion” actually meant that there are certain views and backgrounds that Harvard is going to curate and encourage. Which is fine. But an institution which excludes >95% of those who apply for admission is by definition not inclusive and open.

Pointer from a commenter.

Note that we take it for granted that a “selective” college chooses the students who are easiest to teach. One can imagine different criteria. You could auction slots to the highest bidder, regardless of ability. You can then try to prove that you know something about teaching. Or you could select low-ability and disadvantaged students only, since they need the most help. Or you could take a large initial random sample of applicants, retaining only those who do well in their first semester.

Anyway, the paragraph above, although well said in my opinion, is not Khan’s main point. His main point is this:

Harvard educates the American ruling class. And it wants to continue to educate the American ruling class. As such, it is self-conscious of the fact that it, therefore, can’t have the demographic profile of Cal-Tech.

Khan is inclined to predict that Harvard’s admissions policies will not really change, even if it loses in court. If they don’t change, what happens to the Asian applicants it rejects? More interestingly, what happens to the otherwise-qualified students it rejects because their profiles are too culturally or politically heterodox? They do go to college somewhere. Are their life outcomes affected by not having Harvard’s brand on their degrees? Do those other colleges take advantage of the opportunity to develop distinctive brands, or do they mostly just position themselves as slightly inferior versions of Harvard?

Some issues in education policy

“Education Realist” writes,

Changing the laws of public schools is what needs to happen. But allowing small little schools to skate the law and then bragged that they’ve fixed the problem will just make things worse.

I will comment on that below.

I have some core beliefs about K-12 education in the United States.

1. The null hypothesis. That is, the manner of schooling makes very little durable, long-term difference in lifetime outcomes.

2. Teachers’ unions wield too much power in some jurisdictions, including Montgomery County, Maryland, where I live. The result is that huge sums of money go for pensions and for “administrators” that are simply union featherbedding positions. This non-teaching staff adds to the burden of classroom teachers, rather than helping them.

3. Parents have fairly good instincts about when their children are thriving in school and when they are not. Parents’ instincts may not be perfect, but centralized evaluation systems, such as using test scores to measure “teacher value added,” are much, much worse.

4. Even the best teachers can only handle a limited amount of disruptive students. And note that Scott E. Carrel, Mark Hoekstra,
and Elira Kuka
have a paper which claims that

exposure to a disruptive peer in classes of 25 during elementary school reduces earnings at age 24 to 28 by 3 percent.

The methods used in this paper are suspect. Disruptiveness is a matter of degree, not kind. Also, I really think that the number of disruptive students matters. A lot of teachers can handle one disruptive student. I suppose a really exceptional teacher can deal with two or three. More than three and you are getting into no-hoper territory.

Next, consider three possible policies for handling education.

a) Force everyone to attend a government school, and do not allow affluent parents to segregate their children away from children of non-affluent parents.

b) Get government out of the school-provision business altogether. Instead provide vouchers to low-income families with school-age children. Provide supplemental vouchers for children with special needs, including students who have emotional problems that make them disruptive. Allow schools to decide which students to accept.

c) Stick with what we have now.

I think that it is impossible to satisfy Education Realist with (c). That is, as long as we have a mix of government-run and private schools, the playing field will never by level. Even within the system of government-run schools, allowing people to segregate by neighborhood makes the playing field uneven.

There are at least two interesting questions about what would happen under alternative systems. First, how much segregation by socio-economic class would take place? Second, what would happen to disruptive students? I think that it’s hard to get around the fact that parents like to self-segregate. It is also hard to get around the fact that disruptive students exist and pose a major challenge.

I think that (a) represents the ideal of public schooling. That is, when people defend public schools, they try to make it sound like public schooling creates egalitarian social integration and capably handles disruptive students. But I don’t think that this is the reality.

I would like to see us try (b), at least in some states, to see how it works. I wonder what the incentive has to be to get a school to take on a disruptive student. I wonder if socio-economic segregation would get worse. But I don’t think we can answer those questions without trying some experiments for several years.

What we have now includes a great deal of socio-economic segregation. As for disruptive students, I think that they ruin some classrooms. Affluent parents use private schools and affluent neighborhoods to try to keep their children out of such classrooms. Teachers opt out of classroom teaching and go into administration after they get fed up trying to deal with such classrooms.

The Diss Card Pile

The Economist (warning: their site has lots of scripts* and is likely to crash your browser) writes,

Harvard’s lawyers hired David Card, a prominent labour economist at the University of California, Berkeley. His model includes factors like the quality of a candidate’s high school, parents’ occupations and the disputed personal rating. Under these controls, Mr Card claims that Asian-American applicants are not disadvantaged compared with whites. But given that these factors are themselves correlated with race, Mr Card’s argument is statistically rather like saying that once you correct for racial bias, Harvard is not racially biased.

Pointer from Tyler Cowen. The previous day, Tyler simply said Card is wrong.

I know of three works by Card. One is his paper, with Krueger, claiming that a higher minimum wage raised employment in an area. The criticisms of that paper are persuasive. The second is a paper claiming that college attendance helps people from poor families, controlling for ability. As I wrote in this paper (see the appendix), what he claimed was an instrumental variable (meaning it should have no independent correlation with the dependent variable) was anything but. The third is this latest piece of arrogantly-expressed unpersuasive analysis.

Card was awarded the Clark Medal, which is on par with a Nobel Prize. His body of work is enormous, and perhaps I have encountered the only three times he has been wrong. Perhaps he is only untrustworthy when he wades into a politically sensitive topic. But if you are looking for an economist’s work to examine to see how well it replicates, I have a name for you.

*All media sites do this, but The Economist really goes over the top. Just once I would like to see a major media site that does not invite you to “get notifications” and such. They are all apparently listening to the same Internet consultant, who is an idiot. If they want to listen to someone, they should listen to me. I proposed a better model almost twenty years ago. I knew they would resist it for a while, but I never thought it would be for this long.

How should elites replicate?

Tyler Cowen writes,

start with the general point that social elites need to replicate themselves, one way or another. Otherwise they tend to fade away;

At first, I had a hard time figuring out what he meant. So here was my thought process:

In context, Cowen seems to be defending non-merit based means by which an elite replicates. That is, to be a replicating elite, you have to give unfair advantages and disadvantages to people trying to join the elite. As another example, he writes,

I was struck by a recent paper showing that “almost 80 percent of the faculty at a top 10 economics department did their Ph.D. in a top 10 department.”

It is possible that this shows the ability of top departments to select the most promising students, so that if you don’t get into a top 10 department you are probably a clod. I am sure that is what the departments themselves believe, and if it’s true, then the paper is uninteresting. On the other hand, it could be that hiring at top departments is a game of “I’ll scratch your back if you’ll scratch mine” played by thesis advisers. If that is the case, then what you have is selection for orthodoxy.

I think both mechanisms are at work. The lesser departments tend to get a fair amount of clods to work with. And the better departments give an unfair disadvantage to heterodox thinkers.

So I think that what Cowen means by an elite “replicating” is something like this:

An elite replicates if the selection process for new members ensures that they tend to respect and enhance the status of incumbent members. That is, I would replace the word “replication” with “holding onto status acquired when you became a member.”

The potential problem is that the goal of protecting the status of existing members may cause too much diversion away from true merit. I believe that this is what has happened in many academic disciplines. Cowen may disagree.

Next, you can ask what would happen if whites became a minority at Harvard. Would current white Harvard alumni (the relevant incumbents) lose status if newly-admitted Harvard students were heavily Asian? One way to read Cowen is that Harvard is acting as if it believes this to be the case.

International estimates of human capital

There is a 2017 report by the World Economic Forum.

The top three nations are scoring a cut above the remainder of other leading countries in this year’s Index, with Norway (1) and Finland (2) almost drawing level and slightly ahead of Switzerland (3). All three countries are unique in the Index in having passed the threshold of developing more than 75% of their human capital against the theoretical ideal.

Suggested by a commenter, who notes

43% of Finnish high school graduates go to vocational training programs rather than university and Finland spends 30 percent less per student than the US.

Also, most American universities are not highly rated.

Who wrote this in support of charter schools?

these families think that by being anti-charter they’re defending America’s institution of public education. In reality, they’re defending a specific model of public education, one developed more than a century ago: an industrial-era model built around top-down management and bureaucracy, in which control and decision making belong to the central office rather than the practitioners. This model is a poor fit for today’s world because it treats all kids the same, often assigns them to schools based on their neighborhoods, and produces cookie-cutter schools that educate most children in the same way. It isn’t working well for the majority of urban students. And here’s the irony: it doesn’t always work well for suburban students, either.

It comes from a report by Emily Langhorne for the Progressive Policy Institute. I would add that today’s suburban public schools are not what they used to be. Many of the challenges that we used to associate with urban public schools, including large numbers of students from low-income backgrounds, are now prevalent in the suburbs.

Personally, I am not so optimistic that charter schools will produce significantly better outcomes. But I do think that it is more humane to allow families to opt out of the large-scale school districts that empower bureaucrats at the expense of parents.

Genes and cognitive ability

Nicholas W. Papageorge and Kevin Thom write,

we utilize a polygenic score (a weighted sum of individual genetic markers) constructed with the results from Okbay et al. (2016) to predict educational attainment. The markers most heavily weighted in this index are implicated in neuronal development and other biological processes that affect brain tissue. We interpret the polygenic score as a measure of one type of endowed ability.

Perhaps a newer version of the paper is here.

The paper finds that gene-environment interaction matters. But I think it is important that we now have a genetic score that can serve as a proxy for IQ. Also, this genetic score affects economic outcomes even when educational attainment is controlled for.

By the way, Robert Plomin’s forthcoming book is on my radar. This review points out the obvious, which is that the book will not be well received.

And also, Tyler Cowen points to this paper, which says that it is liberals who attribute outcomes more to genetic factors.

I can only imagine genetic effects being powerful if you hold constant the cultural context. Suppose it were possible to create reliable polygenic scores for the Big Five personality traits, plus cognitive ability. I can imagine that these scores would be useful in predicting outcomes among a group of American teenagers. But if you were to take a random sample of teenagers around the world and use nothing but these scores to predict long-term outcomes, I cannot imagine that this would work. To carry the thought experiment even further, think in terms of plopping people with identical polygenic scores into different centuries.

Peter Diamandis on futuristic education

Like me, he is a fan of Neal Stephenson’s illustrated primer as described in The Diamond Age. Diamandis writes,

Your AI companion will have unlimited access to information on the cloud and will deliver it at the optimal speed to each student in an engaging, fun way. This AI will demonetize and democratize education, be available to everyone for free (just like Google), and offering the best education to the wealthiest and poorest children on the planet equally.