Hate trumps love

Zaid Jilani writes,

Because we’re taking pleasure in the pain of complete strangers—all we know is that they belong to the opposite faction, so they must be awful people—it’s much harder for us to slam the brakes and recognize that we’re starting to bask in sadism.

. . .There is a reason our greatest traditions, both religious and secular, tell us to love our enemies. That imperative is particularly important in the face of rising social and political polarization. The people opposite us in our big debates are our fellow citizens, and they deserve respect. Only by affirming that truth can we successfully tackle something as daunting as a global pandemic and build the social and civic bonds we need to maintain our grand experiment in pluralistic democracy.

You are unlikely to be a moral exemplar when you define yourself by the groups you hate.

Inflation, thinking in bets

I wrote this essay.

Do you disagree that inflation is likely to remain elevated over the next eighteen months, as GDT leads me to predict? If so, what theory do you prefer? The theory that high inflation is transitory? A theory that the Fed will step in and keep inflation at low levels? The theory that I here associate with Modern Monetary Theory, that inflation will only rise when there is hardly any unemployment? A theory that we will have another recession in the months ahead, due to COVID or some other factor?

UPDATE: John Cochrane writes,

The well-respected Taylor rule (named after my Hoover Institution colleague John B. Taylor) recommends that interest rates rise one and a half times as much as inflation. So, if inflation rises from 2% to 5%, interest rates should rise by 4.5 percentage points. Add a baseline of 2% for the inflation target and 1% for the long-run real rate of interest, and the rule recommends a central-bank rate of 7.5%.

He makes the same point that I would, namely:

Monetary policy lives in the shadow of debt. US federal debt held by the public was about 25% of GDP in 1980, when US Federal Reserve Board Chair Paul Volcker started raising rates to tame inflation. Now, it is 100% of GDP and rising quickly, with no end in sight. When the Fed raises interest rates one percentage point, it raises the interest costs on debt by one percentage point, and, at 100% debt-to-GDP, 1% of GDP is around $227 billion. A 7.5% interest rate therefore creates interest costs of 7.5% of GDP, or $1.7 trillion.

Read the whole thing.

From the Wesley Mouch how-to manual

In the progressive journal Democracy, David Stein writes,

President Biden could explore new ways of managing inflation by directing the National Economic Council to analyze the sources and impacts of sectoral inflation, along with possible remedies like credit controls, subsidized production, and boosting the supply of critical goods and services—whether N95 masks, steel, or housing—via government-owned and operated facilities.

Now that we have met and exceeded the World War II debt/GDP ratio, why not go back to wartime central planning?

Oy.

Christianity without foregiveness

Joshua Mitchell writes,

when Christianity reigned, transgression and innocence could not be decoupled from repentance, atonement, and forgiveness. Without these, life withers. For the moment—perhaps forever?—the reign of Christianity is behind us. What walks about is a ghoulish and deadly creature that lives by killing the living creatures that remain. It does this by scapegoating them, by attributing to them transgressions that must be purged—and giving them no means to repent, atone, or be forgiven. Identity politics is the macabre confirmation of the permanence of the Christian language of transgression and innocence; and it is the chilling confirmation that the age of Christianity has passed.

In a much longer piece, Anne Applebaum writes,

In the 19th century, Nathaniel Hawthorne’s novel argued for the replacement of exactly that kind of rigidity with a worldview that valued ambiguity, nuance, tolerance of difference—the liberal worldview—and that would forgive Hester Prynne for her mistakes. The liberal philosopher John Stuart Mill, writing at about the same time as Hawthorne, made a similar argument. Much of his most famous book, On Liberty, is dedicated not to governmental restraints on human liberty but to the threat posed by social conformism, by “the demand that all other people shall resemble ourselves.” Alexis de Tocqueville wrote about this problem, too. It was a serious challenge in 19th-century America, and is again in the 21st century.

Black culture before 1960

Helen Dale writes,

It is from [Wilfred] Reilly we learn two-parent black families are substantially less likely to be poor than single-parent white families, and that between 1900 and 1960 African Americans had low crime rates relative to their numbers in the US population. This despite the well-documented presence of genuinely racist cops and judges throughout the period. We discover, too, that between 1900 and 1955, 85 percent of black families had both parents in the home raising their children and black unemployment rates were low. Between 1920 and 1940, American blacks actually had the highest marriage rates of any ethnic group in the US.

My hypothesis is that black culture broke up under the pressures of urbanization, as children of the great Northern Migration rejected the ways of their rural parents.

Fusion power in my lifetime?

Matt Ridley writes,

We are probably less than 15 years away from seeing a fusion power station begin to contribute to the grid.

Also, Tyler Cowen points to an MIT news article.

Developing the new magnet is seen as the greatest technological hurdle to making that happen; its successful operation now opens the door to demonstrating fusion in a lab on Earth, which has been pursued for decades with limited progress. With the magnet technology now successfully demonstrated, the MIT-CFS collaboration is on track to build the world’s first fusion device that can create and confine a plasma that produces more energy than it consumes. That demonstration device, called SPARC, is targeted for completion in 2025.

In the informal Zoom meetup I had with readers about ten days ago, I asked what they were optimistic about. One of them mentioned that machine learning was helping to solve problems in engineering that were nearly impossible to solve without it. One example he gave was fusion power. Fusion power is not practical now, because the amount of energy needed to generate fusion power currently exceeds the power that can be usefully extracted from it. But scientists and engineers are gradually improving the ratio of energy output to energy input.

Et tu, GMU?

Daniel Klein writes,

GMU’s leadership in classical liberal, conservative, and libertarian perspectives draws many to the university. It is a reason that students from all over the country and the world come to GMU. I should think that the university would wish to build on that leadership and proven excellence.

Perhaps the policies you are planning are not intended to reduce dissent from leftism. But policies are being created, with an apparatus dedicated to enforcing them—an apparatus over which no single person has control. One can imagine how, either out of zealousness or from just wanting to feel relevant, dissent would be greeted. Dissident teaching, course material, and speakers might be encroached upon; policies or technicalities might be used to reduce effectiveness of dissident scholars and teachers; dissidents might be pressed into early retirement; dissident units might be unable to hire and promote as they think best.

Read the whole essay in order to get the background. My sense is that George Mason’s libertarians have already felt the chill in the air under the new university leadership.

Scott Sumner vs. Monetarists

Scott Sumner writes,

Yes, market monetarism is not exactly the same as old-style monetarism, which is why it needs a new label. But I do believe that it is closer to monetarism than to other competing schools of thought.

He is responding to a review by George Selgin of Sumner’s recent book.

To me, the most important difference between Sumner and the monetarists that were prominent when I was studying economics concerns the issue of rules vs. discretion. Milton Friedman was adamant that the monetary authority should follow a rule. I would characterize Sumner’s guidance to the monetary authorities as “Do something expansionary when the market indicators suggest that future nominal GDP will fall below target, and do something contractionary when the indicators suggest the opposite.” But which market indicators, using what formula? And what is the exact dose of expansion or contraction indicated for a given discrepancy between the market forecast and the target? Sumner’s guidance is nowhere near as precise as the guidance that the rule-oriented monetarists would have provided. His market monetarism seems to allow a great deal of room for discretion, and the old-fashioned monetarists equated discretion with mischief.