The other tribes

A reader asks,

I’m curious which writers you find best among the other tribes. Who do you read regularly so that you can take the most charitable view of those who disagree with the libertarian perspective?

1. I give points to anyone who looks at the virus crisis without saying that President Trump was a dominant causal factor. For example, Raj Chetty listening to the data tell him that individual responses preceded government lockdowns. I also give points to Chetty and to Amir Sufi for looking at the economic impact of the crisis without using a GDP factory framework.

2. I take points off from anyone who bashes libertarians as being responsible for things being in a bad state. If you ask me, there are many more opportunities to improve public policy by making it more libertarian, and there are very few opportunities for making public policy better by making it less libertarian. Feel free to make specific criticisms of libertarian points of view, but don’t disgrace yourself a la Niskanen Center.

3. For progressives now, I am most focused on their willingness to stand up for old-fashioned liberal values, such as free speech. So I give credit to Jonathan Haidt and Bret Weinstein and I enjoy listening to them. I like progressives who are willing to speak out for policy positions that go against their own tribe. In the past, I have mentioned William Galston and the Progressive Policy Institute as examples. Jason Furman would be another example.

4. For conservatives now, I am focused on their willingness to stand up for old-fashioned conservative values, such as fiscal responsibility and civility. Yuval Levin. George Will. Megan McArdle. I am probably overlooking many others.

5. These days, it is important to me to see writers who are not heavily dug in on President Trump. Some conservatives are too intent on supporting him. Many progressives are too insistent on attacking him.

Has Peter Thiel gone neo-reactionary?

Brian Doherty writes,

Claremont’s web journal The American Mind, though, was launched in 2018 with a more provocative agenda: to “rethink the ideological framework of the American Right.” The animating idea, founding editor Matthew Peterson explains, is that traditional right-of-center groups are out of touch: They don’t even realize that their own staffs include “people under 35” who “fundamentally disagree with supposedly fundamental [classical liberal] tenets of their organization. No one wants to hear or deal with it. They want to stick their heads in the sand.” A vibrant and ideologically adventurous new conservative movement, Peterson says, is “bubbling beneath the surface, or even online all over the place. We are not supposed to talk about these things or engage that movement?”

Yarvin is perhaps better known for the pen name under which he rose to internet fame in the late 2000s and early 2010s: “Mencius Moldbug.” At his Unqualified Reservations blog, Moldbug, a software entrepreneur by day, unspooled head-spinningly long-winded “neoreactionary” screeds. . .

I think that Wikipedia credits me with coining the term “neoreactionary.” Doherty shares my concern that national conservatism is neoreactionary and throws libertarians under the bus. His essay connects Peter Thiel to the neoreactionary view, but Doherty admits to being unsure about exactly where Thiel stands.

To the neoreactionaries, the libertarians are too soft to fight a war against the religion that identifies and persecutes heretics. To libertarians, a war to the death between neoreactionaries and that religion would be a war with no winner.

I think of the war as having three fronts.

1. The media. There, the social justice warriors have captured the most famous brands, but the Internet has diluted the importance of those brands. I might resent the NYT, but I do not fear it.

2. Politics. To me, this is a weird front, because I think most voters don’t think they have a dog in the fight, so that the outcome of elections does not tell us how much people like or don’t like the social justice religion. This November, I think that as long as there is a clear winner, the post-election period will find the social justice activists and the more reasonable left battling one another. It would be nice to let the fight play out, rather than to have an all out right-vs.-left battle. My worst fear, though, is that there will be no clear winner in November, in which case the social justice activists and the center-left will stick to one another like glue as they fight for Biden to defeat Trump in the contested aftermath.

3. Intellectuals. Here, my hope is that universities will go down the path of the media. That is, the famous brands will lose their luster, and alternative arenas for developing and debating ideas will become increasingly influential. Personally, I would rather fight the religion on this front than on the other two.

My recent reading

Arthur Herman, The Idea of Decline in Western History. Originally published in 1997, but there is a 2010 edition. It is an intellectual history, somewhat sprawling and tangled. I get the sense that the book should have made more of a splash than it did, and that I should have come across it sooner.

He draws a distinction between what he calls “historical pessimism” and “cultural pessimism.” I think of it in terms of the REM anthem, “It’s the end of the world as we know it, and I feel fine.” Both types of pessimists agree with the first phrase, and the cultural pessimists add the last four words. They want to see the world end so that they can create it anew. I think there is a pretty obvious link between cultural pessimism and the religion that is animated by finding and persecuting heretics.

Non-pessimists these days would be people like Matt Ridley or Steven Pinker. Many conservatives are historical pessimists, who fear for the fragility of civilization.

From the Wayback Machine

An email correspondent asked me for my essay on competitive government vs. democracy, and I had to go to the Wayback Machine to find it.

What is needed to implement competitive government are rules, procedures, and norms that allow groups of citizens to secede from existing government programs and regulations while forming new organizations to provide services in different ways. Competitive government requires easy entry and easy exit relative to government functions.

Worth re-reading. Contains the core ideas of the widely-unread Unchecked and Unbalanced.

Andrew Sullivan on the religion that persecutes heretics

Andrew Sullivan writes,

There is no such thing as persuasion in this paradigm, because persuasion assumes an equal relationship between two people based on reason. And there is no reason and no equality. There is only power. This is the point of telling students, for example, to “check their privilege” before opening their mouths on campus. You have to measure the power dynamic between you and the other person first of all; you do this by quickly noting your interlocutor’s place in the system of oppression, and your own, before any dialogue can occur. And if your interlocutor is lower down in the matrix of identity, your job is to defer and to listen.

He is reviewing the book by Lindsay and Pluckrose, which will be out in a couple of weeks.

The masses are revolting

Michael Huemer writes,

Today, any schmuck with a computer and an internet connection can participate in the distribution of information and ideas in our society. That has some good aspects (there is a lot more information available, and you can learn about stories that the media elites wouldn’t have covered). But it also results in a lot more content expressing thoughts and values that are more typical of the masses than of the elite. And that means a lot more terrible ideas. The people with authoritarian values and irrational, conspiratorial ways of thinking were always out there; now they have platforms.

Perhaps should be filed under Martin Gurri watch.

A bad bet of mine

A reader reminds me that three years ago, I wrote,

I’ve got $100 that says the market cap of Amazon is lower on July 31, 2020 than it is today.

Spectacularly wrong. Since then, Amazon revenue has roughly doubled and its profits and market cap have roughly tripled. (As I read charts. I could be mis-reading them. Check me.)

The P/E ratio for Amazon has stayed at roughly 150. If it had fallen below 50, I would have won my bet, despite the growth in revenue and profits at Amazon.

At some point, the P/E ratio has to come down to earth. I lost my bet because this has not yet happened.

On capitalism and socialism

Russ Roberts writes,

I think a lot of people are attracted to socialism because they believe it means capitalism without the parts they don’t like. How to get there from here is left unspecified.

I think that this critique needs to be made more often. When Marx says “from each according to his abilities, to each according to his needs,” how does that play out? Who becomes a sanitation worker and who becomes a movie actress? If we all take turns doing everything, not much will get done. Without specialization, economic activity will collapse. But if we choose our specialties voluntarily, based on our preferences without regard to market forces, we will have a surplus of movie actresses and a shortage of sanitation workers.

Capitalism will never be perfect. In Three Problems with Capitalism, I wrote,

Capitalist societies have three problems:
They elevate material values over others.
They create winners and losers.
They undermine communities.

You can always criticize capitalist societies on these grounds. But getting rid of these problems without creating worse problems is a lot trickier.

The other side does it

A phenomenon that I am very alert to is that of justifying our side doing something wrong by saying that the other side does it. (Is there a name for this?) For example, someone left a comment on this site that implied that it made sense for blacks to treat police with disrespect, because police treat blacks with disrespect. Another common example is defending trade barriers as “retaliation” for another country’s trade barriers.

If blacks retaliate for racist treatment by resisting arrest or threatening police, this is likely to make things worse, rather than better. If we retaliate for trade barriers by putting up trade barriers, this is likely to make things worse, rather than better.

I would say that when you do something bad and, when asked to justify it, all you can come up with is “the other side did it to us,” then you are pretty desperate to rationalize your actions. If your program spits out “Our side is entitled to commit atrocities,” there is a bug in your logic somewhere.