Dancing in digital city

Maryanne Wolf has a book called Reader, Come Home about the way that Digital City is rewiring out brains to have less patience for reading. We no longer immerse ourselves in books. We no long savor great writing or re-read great passages. Sad to say, I did not have the patience to read the whole book.

I notice that my writing style now emphasizes compression. Fewer anecdotes or “throat clearing.” Get to the point.

Compression is not costless. When I listen to “Carry On” by CSNY on Spotify I don’t get the same physical thrill that I used to get from the bass-organ interlude that seemed to wash over my brain in the analog version. You don’t hear the harmonics and overtones in John Phillips’ meticulous arrangements for the Mamas and the Papas in MP3.

The other night I was downstairs dancing. The session leader, in LA, was Orly, a high-energy, carrot-topped pixie. She was playing Tefillot, a brilliantly choreographed dance that I’ve probably enjoyed doing more than a hundred times over the last few years. My wife came downstairs with her computer, and she was watching a session that was based in Denver, with a guest teacher Marcelo based in Argentina. He was teaching Smachot, a difficult dance that I have not done enough times to know. So I turned down Orly and switched to Marcelo.

Is this good or not? Why should we not just stick to one session, rather than switch back and forth? In Analog City, we go to a session, and there would be no option to jump to another session. The Analog City session would be run by a very dedicated and competent leader, who nonetheless lacks the charisma of Orly or Marcelo. The Digital City options are in some sense better, but there is not the same continuity.

It’s like the difference between skimming through Internet writing and sticking with a book. I fear we are losing the capacity for the latter.

Civil war watch

Angelo M. Codevilla writes,

In July, the Democratic National Committee engaged some 600 lawyers to litigate the outcome, possibly in every state. No particular outcome of such litigations is needed to set off a systemic crisis. The existence of the litigations themselves is enough for one or more blue state governors to refuse to certify that state’s electors to the Electoral College, so as to prevent the college from recording a majority of votes for the winner. In case no winner could be confirmed by January’s Inauguration Day, the 20th Amendment provides that Congress would elect the next president. Who doubts that, were Donald Trump the apparent winner, and were Congress in Democratic hands, that this would be likelier than not to happen?

Research on populism

In a long survey paper, Sergei Guriev and Elias Papaioannou write,

While there are many definitions of populism, there is a consensus on the lowest common denominator: “anti-elitism and anti-pluralism”. While scholars are often adding features, such as authoritarianism, nativism, identity politics, the minimal definition remains a useful reference point.

To deal with populism, the authors’ suggestions include

The mainstream parties should invest in communications especially online. Political selection could change — with greater opportunities of politicians without elite backgrounds to rise through their party ranks. Finally, governments should promote a broader use of deliberative democracy (e.g., citizens’ assemblies) that promote ownership of the reforms and reduce the gap between voters and elites.

I suspect that Martin Gurri would approve. And for further research, the authors suggest

there is an emerging consensus (at least ex-post) that populists have pursued successful communication strategies, often via social media and the internet. Why can’t mainstream parties and politicians follow suit? Is this because establishment politicians are complacent or because the very nature of internet 2.0 is conducive to propagating the populist message? Tackling such questions will most likely entail an inter-disciplinary approach, blending insights from marketing, cognitive psychology, and economics.

Samuel Hammond on gossip at scale

Samuel Hammond writes,

Closed Facebook groups, subreddits, and Twitter niches are typically self-regulating or have formal moderators, and rarely cause problems. That all changes when one’s online interactions are allowed to propagate far beyond the boundaries of real-life or otherwise opt-in social networks.

. . .Facebook, for example, could easily dampen the tendency of high engagement, sensationalist content from going viral by restricting the visibility of posts that don’t originate from within your friend network or geographical area.

I am not sure how this would work. If it did work, it might prevent gossip from spreading as widely and rapidly as it does now. That in turn might attenuate the influence of gossip on our lives.

I think, though, that the key is getting people to recognize that large-scale society cannot operate by small-scale rules. A small group can adopt “From each according to his abilities, to each according to his needs.” A large, complex society cannot do so. A small group can choose not to live by liberal values and instead adopt a hard-edged moral code and live by myths and falsehoods. It works less well in large societies.

On line, people engage in small-scale social control in a large-scale setting. I suppose that trying to confine online activity to small groups is one approach for trying to stop that. I am skeptical that it can work.

Positional goods and inequality

A commenter refers to John Nye’s 2002 essay. Nye writes that as economic growth improves food choices for everyone,

For those who only care about getting a good meal, this is a blessing not a tragedy. But those with expectations of going to the great restaurants as their incomes rise will be frustrated by the fact that the best remain agonizingly out of reach unless they grow rich much faster than the average. So only the wealthiest of the wealthy can have these goods and must pay a growing premium to do so.

Nye’s point is that the price of positional goods will go up faster than people’s incomes. Think of Harvard as a positional good. The commenter’s claim is that the key positional goods are indicators of cultural supremacy. This would imply that the conflict between old-fashioned liberal values and the new social justice values is over positional goods and thus will be very intense.

Social sorting

Daniel A. Cox and others report,

More than three-quarters (77 percent) of white Americans report that their core social network includes only people who are also white. More than six in 10 (64 percent) black Americans have social networks composed entirely of people who are also black. Less than half of Asian Americans (49 percent) and Hispanic Americans (43 percent) have core social networks that include only members of their own race or ethnic background.

Most partisans have close social ties that reflect their political predispositions. A majority (54 percent) of Republicans report that their core social network is exclusively composed of Donald Trump supporters. The pattern is nearly identical among Democrats.

Recall the cliche that you are the average of your five closest friends.

Mao’s cultural revolution

“Mao managed to light the fuse that would lead to that huge explosion, the Cultural Revolution,” wrote [Simon] Leys. The sequence of events he described that led to that upheaval makes the process sound methodical, but the rage and violence unleashed defy rational analysis. Roving mobs of Red Guards composed of teens and children murdered with impunity. Ancient statues, temples, and buildings were destroyed. All books, films, and magazines that predated the Cultural Revolution were withdrawn, and universities and schools were closed. Professors were harassed by the “Workers-Soldiers Propaganda Teams of the Thought of Mao Tse-Tung,” and were sent to factories or the countryside. “Proletarians” replaced them when the universities tentatively reopened in 1972. This policy did not prove to be successful. Re-educated professors were allowed to return to teaching, but only under the watchful eye of the worker-soldiers propaganda teams. The content of the classes was now predominantly political theory.

The traditional university entrance exam system was eliminated. Replacing it, Leys observed in Chinese Shadows, was an admissions system that was “tightly political: a candidate who is not the son of a worker or a poor peasant has practically no chance of admission

I note that Bret Weinstein and Heather Heying have read extensively about the Cultural Revolution (I have not). Do I need to have a “Cultural Revolution Watch” title ready for future blog posts?

Gossip at scale

The Internet, smart phones, and social media (ISS) have set human communication back about 20,000 years. That is, we now rely more on gossip than we have since we lived in small tribes.

1. Human evolution produced gossip. Cultural anthropology sees gossip as an informal way of enforcing group norms. It is effective in small groups. But gossip is not the search for truth. It is a search for approval by attacking the perceived flaws of others.

2. As a social enforcement mechanism, gossip does not scale. Large societies need other enforcement mechanisms: government, religion, written codes.

3. Our ISS technology changes this. It makes it possible to gossip effectively at large scale. This in turn has revived our propensity to rely on gossip. Beliefs spread without being tested for truth.

4. We have increased the power of gossip-mongers and correspondingly reduced the power of elite institutions of the 20th century, including politicians, mainstream media, and scientists.

5. The result is that we are living through a period of chaos. Symptoms include conspiracy theories, information bubbles, cancel culture, President Trump’s tweets, and widespread institutional decay and dysfunction.

6. To escape from the chaos, we will need new norms of behavior that incline us away from gossip.

I will elaborate more below. Continue reading

Mental health, age, and political orientation

Tyler Cowen writes,

I don’t think you can understand modern American discourse, most of all social media, without recognizing that “the intellectual Left” has higher neuroticism — as defined by Five-Factor personality theory — than say centrists. The Right of course has its own correlations, but that is a topic for another time.

He reproduces a chart based on a Pew survey that asks if someone was ever diagnosed with a mental health condition and breaks the respondents down by age and political orientation. I think that the main survey page is here, but I have not tried to download the data.

According to the chart, if you are young and liberal, there is a 46 percent chance that you have ever been told by a professional that you have a mental health condition (and admit it in the survey). If you are old and conservative, this chance is only 5 percent. If you are young and conservative, the chance is 15 percent. If you are old and liberal, the chance is 21 percent.

On the liberal-conservative difference: it could be that mental health conditions are equally prevalent across political orientation, but conservatives are more reluctant to seek a professional opinion and/or more reluctant to disclose to a survey researcher that they have been diagnosed.

On the age differences, the trend is dramatic. As you move from the 20-29 age cohort to the over-65 age cohort, liberals drop from 45 percent diagnosed to 15 percent, moderates go from 35 percent diagnosed to 17 percent, and conservatives go from 15 percent diagnosed to 5 percent.

Since the question is whether you were ever told that you have a mental health condition, all else equal this should go up with age, not down as in the chart. Again, there could be differences in willingness to seek an opinion or to disclose to a survey researcher.

But suppose that we take at face value the results that with each new cohort of white Americans, mental health is deteriorating. This would have a number of implications.

1. Mental health is unlikely to be mostly genetically determined. The gene pool cannot have changed that dramatically.

2. Jonathan Haidt’s claims about the harms of social media might explain the difference between the 20-29 cohort and the 30-49 cohort, but it seems unlikely to explain the trends in other cohorts. I suspect that the trend toward smaller and less stable families is the main factor in mental health deterioration.

A grumpy thought

John Cochrane writes,

If Blacks are, indeed, 1% of all Math SAT takers with scores between 700 and 800, after going through our shameful educational system, just how is every field in academia along with every business competing with each other to hire that 1% going to help?

Most of his post is about the Trump Administration’s attempt to remove the “diversity training” programs from the Federal bureaucracy. As John points out, this is a topic that deserves more coverage in the media. The public should know more about what is going on.

Interestingly, another politician also decided to draw the line on indoctrination in critical theory. Did you hear about what happened in California? I have a hard time finding details, but I think that the gist of it is this.

1. The California education bureaucrats proposed to the legislature an “ethnic studies” requirement and described the curriculum.

2. Jewish groups saw that BDS was included, and they went ballistic.

3. The bureaucrats revised the curriculum. They submitted the new curriculum, saying “We took out BDS, and we even added Jews as an American ethnic group. Now are you happy, Jewish Groups?”

4. Jewish groups: “No.”

5. The law passed the California legislature with overwhelming majorities.

6. Governor Newsom vetoed the law.

As far as I know, this is where it stands.