What I’m reading

1. The Murder of Professor Schlick, by David Edmonds. It tells the tale of the Vienna Circle, a group of positivist philosophers. Edmonds describes their attempt to develop a philosophy of scientific rigor against a backdrop of reactionary anti-Semitism. One excerpt:

Jews were the most loyal of Habsburg subjects. Certainly Popper, and Circle members, saw the Habsburg era through rose-tinted, rearview glasses. After World War I they felt that the Jews stood out: in the golden age of the empire it was different: everyone stood out.

Austria was much smaller than the former empire, and whereas other minorities were prominent under the Habsburgs, in Austria it was mainly the Jews that were noticeable.

1930s Austria and contemporary America are similar in that those who favor rigorous thinking find our ideas attacked on ethnic grounds (for being Jewish then, for being white now). One difference is that back then the Vienna Circle was mostly socialist and the attacks came from the right. Today, the attacks come from the socialist left.

2. Trust in a Polarized Age, by Kevin Vallier. I agree with the substance of this book. But the manner in which it is written serves as a reminder that academia and I were not meant for one another. An excerpt:

We cannot determine which reasons are intelligible without appealing to some form of idealization. A person can have an intelligible reason even if she does not affirm the reason at present. An intelligible reason is one that an agent is rationally entitled to affirm after some amount of reasoning, which includes the collection of information, and making proper inferences based on that information.

I ascribe intelligible reasons to persons based on the reasons they would affirm as their own if they were moderately idealized. Moderately idealized agents correspond to real persons, but they have reflected enough to respond to considerations that we would hold them responsible for ignoring. In this way, moderate idealization appeals to standards of information and inference that are not perfect but that are appropriate to our practice of responsibility. This, in turn, supplies the reasons on which trust and trustworthiness may be based, since the practice of trust and trustworthiness is a practice of responsibility.

This is the sort of prose that academics are obliged to read–and to write. I feel fortunate to have “failed” in my youthful attempt at such a career.

3. The World of Patience Gromes, by Scott C. Davis. Recommended by Glenn Loury. It is a great book, and it was very inexpensive on Kindle. Davis did extensive research to describe the evolution of a black neighborhood in Richmond where Davis worked as an anti-poverty volunteer in the early 1970s.

Techno-optimism

Peter Diamandis provides it.

Global gigabit connectivity will connect everyone and everything, everywhere, at ultra-low cost: The deployment of both licensed and unlicensed 5G, plus the launch of a multitude of global satellite networks (OneWeb, Starlink, etc.), allow for ubiquitous, low-cost communications for everyone, everywhere–– not to mention the connection of trillions of devices. And today’s skyrocketing connectivity is bringing online an additional 3 billion individuals, driving tens of trillions of dollars into the global economy. This Metatrend is driven by the convergence of: low-cost space launches, hardware advancements, 5G networks, artificial intelligence, materials science, and surging computing power.

This is one of twenty examples. One of them, number 7 on his list, restates Ray Kurzweil’s prediction of the singularity by the end of this decade. We’ll see.

Two racial narratives

In 2018, Glenn Loury described what he called the bias narrative and the development narrative.

The bias narrative calls attention to racial discrimination and exclusionary practices of American institutions—black Americans not being treated fairly. So, if the gap is in incarceration, the bias narrative calls attention to the behavior of police and the discriminatory ways in which laws are enforced and attributes the over-representation of blacks in the prisons to the unfair practices of the police and the way in which laws are formulated and enforced.

The development narrative, on the other hand, calls attention to the patterns of behavior and the acquisition of skills and discipline that are characteristic of the African American population. So, in the case of incarceration, the development narrative asks about the behavior of people who find themselves in trouble with the law and calls attention to the background conditions that either do or do not foster restraint on those lawbreaking behaviors. Now, the position that I take is that whereas at the middle of the twentieth century, 50 to 75 years ago, there could be no doubt that the main culprit in accounting for the disadvantage of African Americans was bias of many different kinds (bias in the economy, social relations, and in the political sphere), that is a less credible general account of African American disadvantage in the year 2018. And the development narrative—the one that puts some responsibility on we African Americans ourselves, and the one that wants to look to the processes that people undergo as they mature and become adults and ask whether or not those processes foster people achieving their full potential—that, I think, is a much more significant dimension of the problem today relative to bias than was the case 50 years ago.

But as far as I can tell, Critical Race Theory sees the development narrative as racist.

For more Glenn Loury, along with John McWhorter, Shelby Steele, and Eli Steele, I strongly recommend this video.

Our new race war?

In this half-hour lecture, Glenn Loury as an aside makes the point that the existence of a race depends on cultural behavior. After all, if people did not perceive racial differences, over time inter-marriage would eliminate any such differences.

If you think about it, endogamy is a necessary condition for any persistent cultural distinctiveness. If Japanese and non-Japanese were prone to marry one another, that would eventually mean the end of distinctive Japanese culture.

This in turn leads me to think about our contemporary society, in which the Highly-Educated Elites (HEEs) are endogamous. That leads to a distinctive culture, with values, tastes and linguistic patterns that differentiate them from everyone else. If this keeps up, in a few generations HEEs will seem like a different race altogether.

A few hundred years ago, aristocrats seemed like a race apart from ordinary Englishmen. They were taller. They spoke with a different accent. Endogamy was strong among the aristocratic class.

The term “race” is so loaded that people will object to anyone calling the HEEs a race. You may want to reserve the term race for differences that are visible in physiognomy. You may prefer the more typical expression “culture war.”

The advantage to calling the conflict involving HEEs a race war is that it would allow us to see the danger in where the endogamous HEEs are heading.

Anti-Trump, anti-Woke, and gloating

Andrew Sullivan’s take on Trump’s loss amounts to “Ding, Dong, the Witch is dead.” As to wokeness, he writes,

This mass secret vote revealed that the New York Times’ woke narrative of America — the centuries-long suffocating oppression of minorities and women by cis white straight men — is simply a niche elite belief, invented in a bubble academy, and imposed by bullying, shaming and if possible, firing dissenters. Some of us who refused to cower can gain real satisfaction from knowing we were not mad, not evil, not bigots, and that a huge swathe of our fellow citizens agree.

I don’t think that this election showed that Woke ideas are unpopular. It’s some of the tactics of the BLM folks that are unpopular. Critical Race Theory (CRT) has swept through the academic world. It has not achieved similar success with non-college-educated adults in part because it has not really tried. That doesn’t mean that proselytizing among those adults would fail if it were tried. Or that proselytizing to their children in schools will fail as it gets tried.

This religion is still dangerous. The election did not change that. Hold the gloating.

Recoveries and unemployment

Robert E. Hall and Maryanna Kudlyak write,

We have developed a parsimonious statistical model of the behavior of observed unemployment. It describes: (1) occasional sharp upward movements in unemployment in times of economic crisis, and (2) an inexorable downward glide at a low but reliable proportional rate at all other times. The glide continues until unemployment reaches approximately 3.5 percent or until another economic crisis interrupts the glide.

Pointer from Tyler Cowen.

They think that the main implication of this is that it causes problems for the theory of the natural rate of unemployment. I think it discredits much more in macro.

For example, the various recoveries that they analyze had different amounts of “stimulus.” If the pace of recovery is the same in all cases, then what good was the “stimulus”?

I think that their stylized fact fits a PSST story quite well. A crisis suddenly breaks up a lot of patterns of specialization and trade. There is no equivalent process for quickly creating new patterns of sustainable specialization and trade. Instead, the entrepreneurial trial and error that is needed to create new patterns of specialization and trade seems to take place at a persistent, steady rate.

People who need closure

Psychologist Andrew Hartz writes,

Splitting is a defense mechanism by which people unconsciously frame ideas, individuals or groups of people in all-or-nothing terms—for example, all good or all bad. The term was popularized in its current usage by the psychoanalyst Melanie Klein in the 1930s and ’40s. Its name describes how intolerable thoughts and feelings are split off from the subject’s awareness, leading to a partial view of the world. To see our opponents as pure evil, we have to split off the parts of them that are admirable. To see ourselves as purely righteous, we have to split off our shortcomings.

Hartz argues that this explains polarization. We learn to tune out any sort of positive perceptions of people whose political views differ from ours.

I think of splitting as another term for, or at least related to, cognitive dissonance. Believing something good about someone who disagrees with you creates cognitive dissonance. The easiest way to resolve that is to avoid believing something good about someone who disagrees. In The Three Languages of Politics, I call this the need for closure.

Remote capital

Paula Jacobs reports,

virtual Israeli folk dancing has proved a valuable solution during COVID-19, allowing a popular pastime to continue safely, while creating a global dance community. So even when in-person sessions resume, it’s likely that virtual dancing is also here to stay.

This is an example of what I call “remote capital.” That is, people have learned to do things remotely. Even if fears of the virus go away tomorrow what we would see is a blend of pre-virus in-person activities and remote activities. Live Israeli dance sessions likely will include a Zoom feed for dancers in other locations.

Corporations with offices in multiple locations will at the margin substitute remote conferences for some in-person get-togethers. Perhaps Boards of Directors will meet twice a year in person and twice a year virtually. Although much of education on Zoom is not satisfying, my guess is that students will vote with their feet against large in-person lectures.

Increased longevity for victims of violence

Roger Dobson writes,

a team from Massachusetts University and Harvard Medical School found that technological developments had helped to significantly depress today’s murder rates, converting homicides into aggravated assaults.

Pointer from Tyler Cowen. Some thoughts.

1. I give the study a less than 50 percent chance of holding up. The method seems unreliable.

The team looked at data going back to 1960 on murder, manslaughter, assault, and other crimes. It merged these data with health statistics and information on county level medical resources and facilities, including trauma centres, population, and geographic size. The researchers then worked out a lethality score based on the ratio of murders to murders and aggravated assaults.

2. As I understand it, many statistics on crime show a decline, not just murders. This analysis says the opposite, that the rate of violent crime has remained high, and better treatment has reduced murder.

Glenn Greenwald’s outrage

I only listened to about the first 30 minutes of this Joe Rogan podcast. Glenn Greenwald claims that

1. Edward Snowden is a hero. The U.S. security apparatus engaged in illegal and unconstitutional spying. It goes all out to protect itself from checks, and in that it has succeeded.

2. The media did not do their job with respect to Joe Biden. They should have been digging into the Hunter Biden story and the questions about Biden’s mental health. Instead, they downplayed those stories.

My view of the security agencies is based on my reading of David Brin’s The Transparent Society. I think we can expect security agencies to be very aggressive about spying. What I would propose is an oversight board or audit agency that examines their policies and procedures. I know that this leaves open the possibility that the oversight board could be captured by the agencies, as arguably the FISA courts have. But in my view it is a better idea than just letting them go with no oversight (or with the oversight that Congress provides, which amounts to no oversight).

Brin himself sees Snowden as someone addicted to self-righteous sanctimony (Snowden is not named in the linked essay, but elsewhere in an op-ed that is no longer on line). Some people might feel that way about Greenwald. After I composed this post but before it went up, Greenwald posted a piece that The Intercept (which he founded!) censored.

As for the media, my quarrel is not with the NYT. It is with the people who only read the NYT. They are the mirror image of people who only watch Fox News. It is these readers who are addicted to self-righteous sanctimony, and the NYT gives it to them good and hard.