Eli Dourado has a nice roundup.
Both Moderna and BioNTech have personalized vaccine candidates targeting cancer. Although called a “cancer vaccine,” the treatment is only administered once the subject has cancer—it isn’t preventative. The companies use an algorithm to analyze the genetic sequences of the tumor and the patient’s healthy cells and predict which molecules could be used to generate a strong immune response against the cancer.
He is optimistic about the Hyperloop. Peter Diamindis is, also.
Pointer from Tyler Cowen. The tone is optimistic. Years ago, I noted that the print publication that gives me the most optimism is Technology Review. The one that gives me the most pessimism is Regulation.
We can compare Eli’s post to what I wrote in 2005.
I wrote,
Is the new trend rate of productivity growth 3 percent or higher?
Obviously, it wasn’t. I was thinking about labor productivity, which is not the same as TFP, which Eli wants to look at. All productivity measures are dubious, in my opinion.
I wrote that cognitive neuroscience was the field of the future. I think I was wrong. It gets no mention in Eli’s survey.
I quoted the U.S. Department of Energy to the effect that by 2015 solar power would be competitive with traditional sources of energy. Eli says
The 2010s were the wind and solar decade. We observed stunning declines in the cost of both
I wrote about optimism regarding cancer therapy. We have seen some improvement, but “the emperor of all maladies” is still a formidable killer.
Finally, I wrote that mainstream media were losing attention as well as credibility. Actually, they figured out how to hang on to attention by dialing up the outrage and clickbait. They decided not to bother with credibility.
If I were a billionaire, instead of wasting money on non-profits, I would buy some land and try to build a start-up city. Build roads that work well with autonomous vehicles, and only allow autonomous vehicles–visitors have to leave their ordinary cars in a parking lot outside the city. Design and build an electric grid optimized for today’s technology. Make 5G available everywhere. Implement a set of protocols that allow all sorts of drones to operate without colliding with one another or with humans.
The key to a start-up city might be making it easy for people to interact with people from other cities. This could mean rapid transit in and out, or it could mean the use of augmented reality.
Perhaps in the future cities that have major impediments to livability will be at a disadvantage. It may prove easier to give people in other cities the amenities that they appreciate about NY or SF than it is for NY or SF to escape their downward spirals. Boston, Chicago, and Minneapolis will have a harder time convincing people to live with winter.
That is not a sure-fire prediction–it may prove no more prescient than my 2005 blog post–but I offer it as a possible future scenario.