The perils of SIDS research

Emily Oster writes,

A lot of the questions parents have — either in the COVID-19 context or elsewhere — are about very rare outcomes. Monday’s newsletter had a brief discussion of the SNOO and SIDS risk.Several people wrote to ask: does the SNOO actually reduce SIDS? To answer this convincingly in a randomized trial, you’d need an enormous sample size. Even a 50% reduction in SIDS risk — which would be astronomical — would require a sample size of between 100,000 and 150,000 infants, which may be impractical even putting aside the cost of the SNOO. It just isn’t feasible to answer this in this way.

Nobody does randomized controlled trials of that magnitude. So that makes the claims that back-sleeping reduces SIDS risk unconvincing.

Education principles to resist wokeism

From Greg Lukianoff and FIRE. They include,

Yes, K-12 education is expected to impart some amount of “moral education” to students, far more than is expected in higher education. As former Chief Justice Warren E. Burger described it, “schools must teach by example the shared values of a civilized social order.” However, if we are educating a generation to live as citizens in a free society, we must not teach them that those in authority are allowed to — let alone encouraged to — tell citizens what political beliefs they must hold, endorse, or profess.

Pointer from commenters. There is much more at the link.

Scott Alexander on the current moment

Scott Alexander offers many wise observations.

I don’t want to say angry tweets never accomplish anything, but there is a massive oversupply of angry tweets compared to almost any other part of the machinery of change.

…I’m not saying you have to write blog posts! …. Just do anything, anything at all, other than tweet.

The Fantasy Intellectual Teams scoring system does not have a point category for “wise observations.”

How to make Twitter less rude

I propose a buddy system.

Have each Twitter user designate a buddy to whom your tweets are directed. If my hypothesis is correct, then simply having a single person in mind who you respect would temper your rudeness as you tweet. And if enough people on Twitter temper their rudeness, then good manners would replace bullying and put-downs as social norms.

Read the whole essay before you shoot down the idea.

How I became #neverTrump

I was Trump-tolerant right up until the November 2020 election. But his refusal to concede was unacceptable, in my view. I make a strong distinction between disliking the electoral process and refusing to accept the electoral outcome.

I should point out that I had the exact same reaction in 2000. I actually voted for Al Gore, but as soon as he challenged the Florida results I turned against him. I have hated him ever since. My visceral reaction is to treat challenging an electoral outcome as selfish and destructive.

A statesman in Mr. Trump’s position would have called for a bipartisan commission to suggest reforms to the electoral process to make it more reliable and to enable more rapid, secure counting of votes. Improve the process, but don’t try to overturn the results.

My concern with Mr. Trump centers around the issue of personal loyalty. He appears to me to demand unquestioning loyalty. If you express such loyalty, you can be a knave or a fool and still earn his support (“fine people”). If you fail to express such loyalty, he will cast you aside as cruelly as he possibly can.

I watch 0 television, so I had never seen Mr. Trump until I watched his talk at CPAC this year. I was put off by the narcissism of his remarks. But what really disturbed me was the intensity of the cheering of his supporters. These were not farmers and blue-collar workers doing the cheering, which probably would have disturbed me less. They were affluent, white-collar urbanites, who should have been taught to treat politics with some degree of detachment.

My wife often says that she fears charismatic leaders. She was bothered by people who worshipped Barack Obama. I believe that she is right that everyone should have a healthy skepticism of political leaders. But I think that it is even more important for leaders themselves to be able to accept that other people treat them as fallible. Mr. Trump struck me as the very opposite in that regard.

Mr. Trump’s supporters fault other Republican leaders for being too elitist or too conciliatory. Those complaints are often valid. But I would rather look for a different leader who is empathetic with ordinary voters and is willing to take firm stands that are unpopular inside the Beltway. But we should look for someone who does not possess such a single-minded focus on personal loyalty.

Attitudes toward school and racial disparities

John McWhorter leans on the work of Clifton Casteel.

We get closer to truth in examining what black kids’ attitudes toward school may have to do with the problem. A study in 1997 very neatly got at the issue. It found that among eighth and ninth graders, most white kids said they did schoolwork for their parents while most black kids said they did schoolwork for the teacher.

I know of no study that more elegantly gets across a subtle but determinative difference between how black and white kids tend to process the school thing. For the black kids, school is something “else,” something for “them,” beyond the comfort zone; for the white kids, it is part of the comfort zone. This is not something the kids would consciously be aware of, but being really good at school – and this would include tests – requires that it becomes a part of you. To hold it at half an arm’s remove all but guarantees that you will only ever be so good at it.

Respectability cascade

Scott Alexander recycles a phrase he seems to have invented.

The whole process was a very clear example of a respectability cascade. There’s some position which is relatively commonly held, but considered beyond the pale for respectable people. In the beginning, the only people who will say it openly are extremely non-respectable people who don’t mind getting cast out of normal society for their sin. Everyone attacks them, but afterwards they are still basically standing, and their openness encourages slightly more respectable people to say the same thing. This creates a growing nucleus of ever-more-respectable people speaking openly, until eventually it’s no longer really that taboo and anyone who wants can talk about it with only minor stigma.

We may be witnessing a respectability cascade for the view that the virus probably escaped from a lab in Wuhan. I hope that someday we witness a respectability cascade for the view that anti-racism is baloney sandwich.

Economics of health care vs. culture of moral dyad

My latest essay is on health care policy. My views have not changed since my book was published fifteen years ago. But my understanding of why my views are not going to be accepted has increased over time.

While many other governments limit the availability of the expensive tests and treatments that are routine here, I would prefer instead to see individuals face more of the costs of these procedures and make their own choices to forego them. But this idea runs afoul of the moral dyad that most people use when thinking about health care.