Fall travel update

Here are some dates I will be in various cities, along with times that I might be available if someone wants to get together. Leave a comment if interested.

Oct 28 Indianapolis-Bloomington. Timing yet to be firmed up, but likely that early morning is the best chance.

Nov. 1. New Haven. The talk (on the three-axes model) will be at lunch time, and I probably can get one or two people in. I also may have a short stretch available around 2:00 or so.

Nov. 5-6 St. Louis. I will be staying in Clayton. Available either morning.

Nov. 7-8 Houston. Available mid-morning and afternoon on the 7th. Available morning of the 8th.

What should universities aim for?

Inn 1876, Johns Hopkins University President Daniel Coit Gilman said,

The object of the university is to develop character — to make men. It misses its aim if it produced learned pedants, or simple artisans, or cunning sophists, or pretentious practitioners. Its purport is not so much to impart knowledge to the pupils, as whet the appetite, exhibit methods, develop powers, strengthen judgment, and invigorate the intellectual and moral forces. It should prepare for the service of society a class of students who will be wise, thoughtful, progressive guides in whatever department of work or thought they may be engaged.

Quoted by Timothy Taylor.

The very top colleges historically have been for training elites. The college administrators decided who ought to be part of the elite and what training they should receive.

There has always been some tension between this mission and a more democratic/utilitarian conception of colleges as instruments for promoting equality and upward mobility.

Persuasion vs. Demonization

My latest essay begins,

I will describe two modes of political discourse, which I call persuasion mode and demonization mode. In persuasion mode, we treat people on the other side with respect, we listen to their logical and factual presentations, and we respond with logical and factual presentations of our own. In demonization mode, we tell anyone who will listen that people on the other side are awful human beings.

Although I don’t cite Eric Weinstein’s podcast with Timur Kuran, I think that listening to that podcast influenced what I wrote. I have some comments about that podcast scheduled to go up on this blog next week.

Two dimensions of rigor

Perhaps we may think of rigor as having two dimensions.

One dimension is high standards for verifiability. For example, in mathematics, a theorem is verified using a logical proof. In physics or chemistry, a hypothesis is verified through the process of controlled experiments.

A second dimension is open inquiry. That means that one is allowed to entertain a heterodox hypothesis, free from social pressure. If I face pressure to discard a hypothesis, that pressure comes from its failure along the verifiability dimension.

Some remarks:

1. In social science*, it is much harder than in physics or chemistry to maintain high standards of verifiability. The problem is causal density. The physicist does not have to worry about individual free will or cultural evolution, both of which add considerable causal factors to the problems studied by social scientists.

Consider the question of how to prevent another Challenger disaster. The technical engineering answer seems to be satisfactorily verified. But the organizational-behavior dimension of the problem is more contestable. Would a better formal process have led to a better decision? Or was a different cultural mindset necessary?

*As you know, I despise the term “social science,” and if it were up to me that term would be replaced by “cultural analysis.”

2. Consider examples of four quadrants;

high standards of verifiability along with open inquiry: Call this quadrant “rigorous.” Think of STEM subjects, except where open inquiry is somewhat impeded by “establishment” scientists restricting access to money and status.

low standards of verifiability along with open inquiry: Call this quadrant “faux rigorous.” Think of experimental psychology, where careless methods resulted in the “replication crisis.” Or think of multiple regression in economics, which was discredited by Edward Leamer’s critique. In fact, economists since 1945 have been engaged in collective self-deception, believing that their standards of verifiability were high when in fact this was not the case. Their mathematical models lacked a tight relationship to reality, hence what Paul Roomer dubbed “mathiness.” And their empirical work, while more careful in recent years, still is unable to definitively answer many important questions.

high standards of verifiability but without open inquiry: Call this quadrant “willful blindness.” Think of research related to IQ. Not all of this research meets high standards of verifiability, but some of it does, and even the solid research gets dismissed and denounced.

low standards of verifiability along with barriers to open inquiry: Call this quadrant “dogma.” I think that a lot of sociological theories of power and oppression fall in this quadrant. Climate science is far from my area of expertise, but my intuitive guess is that there is at least a 25 percent chance that it falls in this quadrant.

3. I believe that the trend is for social science to be less rigorous and more dogmatic. I see this as the central tragedy of our intellectual life.

Freddie, Fannie, investors, and questions

The WSJ covers the Administration’s plans to return Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae to private ownership, while retaining their government guarantee.

The principles announced Thursday represent a major reversal from what leaders of both parties over the past decade promised—to abolish the companies, which guarantee roughly half the U.S. mortgage market. The approach, which doesn’t require approval by Congress, would mark an important win for investors who have been betting politicians wouldn’t follow through on those promises.

Exactly. Back in 2008, government officials claimed to understand that privatized profits and socialized risks was a bad model. The main thing this plan accomplishes is to reward the speculators who bet that the government officials would forget that it is a bad model.

The Administration did throw a sop to me, so to speak:

Treasury also said FHFA should reassess whether the companies’ purchases of cash-out refinancings and loans for investment and vacation properties align with the firms’ core mission.

You could get them out of that business without returning them to private ownership. In fact, private owners were will lobby much harder to continue to provide loans that do nothing to promote saving through home ownership.

Follow up on my mother, Communism, bullying

Further notes on yesterday’s post.

1. I would not apply the three-axes model to the 1950s. Here is the history as I see it:

From 1917 through 1989, I would say that there was one major axis of intellectual disagreement: pro-Communist or anti-Communist.

If you will forgive the oxymoron, in the culture of the 1920s and 1930s the Soviet Union was Silicon Valley–the epicenter of progress, or so it was thought. In the West, the Communist Party was where you went to find people with dynamism, energy, and confidence that they were “in league with the future.”

Meanwhile, anti-Communism had its ups (“red scare”) and downs (“Uncle Joe”)*, until soon after World War II, when it surged again, probably because of renewed pride in American culture and institutions combined with shock at the Soviet atomic bomb and the “fall of China.” Then Stalin’s death in 1951 and the subsequent revelation of the horrors of his regime ended the left’s romance with Communism. Although Western pro-Communism appeared to die with Stalin, the McCarthy-ite bullying of the 1950s produced a backlash of anti-anti-Communism. Finally, the fall of the Berlin Wall made the issue moot, or ended history, as Francis Fukuyama famously put it.

*Note that in the 1940s it was not obvious that Stalin was a monster. From 1941-1945, he was our ally.

2. One reader commented that my father, who drew my mother away from Communism, should have been considered a hero. That is not how bullies think. They regarded him as suspect for being associated with her (and probably to a large extent for being Jewish). A friend reminds me that my father submitted his resignation to the political science department of Washington University, because his position seemed so untenable. It was by not accepting his resignation that the University stood by him.

3. As an aside, I don’t think my mother could have persisted as a Communist in any case. I suspect that she fell in with Communists because, coming to Missouri determined to escape her Pennsylvania small-town existence, she perceived worldliness and sophistication in her Communist associates. It was through them that she met my aunt, who in turn introduced her to my father.

My aunt was very intelligent. All through high school she outshone my father academically. She even had her exploits covered in a long feature story in St. Louis’ leading newspaper. But her temperament was austere and humorless, viewing the world in black-and-white terms. Communism fit her very well.

My father’s intellectual temperament was the opposite. He was comfortable with ambiguity and profoundly skeptical of absolutist thinking. One of his favorite sayings was “The first iron law of social science is ‘sometimes it’s this way and sometimes it’s that way.'” He was not suited to Communism at all.

Neither was my mother, because she cherished amusement. In my boyhood, she sought to amuse me, and she found me amusing.

For example, a couple of times a year she and my father would go to the race track over in Illinois and place small bets. A few times they took me. In the early 1960s, they were lent a small analog computer in which one could use dials to enter information from the Racing Form and get a recommendation for betting. I was the one who worked that computer (at home, not at the track), and it took about half an hour to enter a few pieces of information about each horse in a single race. We never used it to try to bet. But it was an amusing experience.

4. Another reader asked what became of Dr. Sol Londe professionally. It’s a good question, but I don’t know the answer. Apparently, he kept his medical license. But I doubt that he could have held any position with, say, the Missouri Medical Association. [UPDATE: It turns out that he had a long and distinguished career in medicine and political activism. See the comments on this post.]

5. A progressive friend of mine claims that bullying is a Trump-era phenomenon. I would refer him to the Larry Summers case. It was in 2005 when Summers made his infamous remarks that male dominance in math departments was not necessarily due to oppression of women, but instead might reflect the fact that in the very upper extreme of math ability, men are more prevalent. His enemies distorted this into a supposed claim that “women can’t do math.” A vote of the Harvard faculty, many of whom disliked Summers for other reasons (he is easy to dislike) went against him. His resignation, unlike my father’s, was accepted, effective in 2006.

The way it appears to me now, the bullying of Summers/Harvard became the template for today’s social justice movement. It is easy not to feel sorry for Summers personally (he is easy to dislike). But the success of the campaign against him was a tragic episode from the standpoint of the principle of free inquiry.

By the way, even though Summers is easy to dislike, I mostly like him.

Recycling wastes resources

Michael Munger writes,

For recycling to be a socially commendable activity, it has to pass one of two tests: the profit test, or the net environmental-savings test. If something passes the profit test, it’s likely already being done.

[for the environmental-savings test] it must cost less to dispose of recycled material than to put the stuff in a landfill.

He argues that recycling aluminum cans passes the environmental’savings test, but recycling glass (and many other things) does not.

Finally,

The real problem, as I see it, is that the recycling industry is selling indulgences, giving people the moral license to pollute because “Hey, I recycle!” To the extent that a lot of recycling is harmful to the environment, this is a double whammy: recycling is largely fake, but it enables people to feel okay about doing other things that pollute.

Pointer from Don Boudreaux.