Software is eating everything, including weaker competitors. Continue reading
Author Archives: Arnold Kling
Five books on human nature
I list them here, in the order in which the books were published. The last one, Innate, by Kevin Mitchell, is one that I cover in a long review essay, which I hope will appear early next year.
Note that this is a “notable books on this topic” piece, not a “books of 2019” piece.
Essay backup: Astrology, IQ, and personality psychology
a response to Taleb Continue reading
Male labor force participation
positive co-movement between employment and wages is closer to the exception than the norm in modern U.S. history. Second, most estimates of the wage elasticity of male labor supply are small, suggesting that male employment responds little to persistent wage changes. And third, prominent labor demand forces were found in a recent review to account for less than half of observed decline in U.S. employment since 1999 (Abraham and Kearney, 2018). These facts suggest that factors beyond labor demand are necessary to explain the secular decline in noncollege men’s involvement in the labor market.
Pointer from Tyler Cowen.
This decline in male labor force participation among those without a college degree is a significant issue. Note that even though the unemployment rate has come down for those workers, their rate of labor force participation is still way down.
Economists on the left tend to assume that this is due to a drop in demand for workers at the low end of the skill distribution. Binder’s claim is that instead one factor in declining participation is an increase in the ability of women to participate in the labor market, which in turn lowers the advantage of marrying a man. The reduced interest in marriage on the part of women attenuates the incentive for men to work.
Like all economic research of this kind, I would take this with a grain of salt. But if it is true, then I would say that if we could substitute a universal basic income for our current in-kind transfer programs, then the marginal tax rate for the working class would go down, and this might restore some of the incentive for marriage.
Essay backup: Nassim Taleb and the disagreeables
Employee tenure
The median number of years that wage and salary workers had been with their current employer
was 4.2 years in January 2018
(in the future, the link may take you to a then-current survey)
Pointer from Alex Tabarrok, indirectly from Tyler Cowen.
The overall figure includes workers under age 25, and that may skew the number downard. If you dig into the BLS release, you find that for workers aged 35-44, the median tenure is around 5 years. That is still not terribly long. This is not the textbook picture of the labor market, in which everybody works in the GDP factory in “the” job at “the” wage rate. I see it as another reason to prefer the framework that I call patterns of sustainable specialization and trade.
Essay backup: misleadership and metrics
On Jerry Muller’s book. Continue reading
Local development, bootleggers, and baptists
The biggest problem with “Make developers give something back to the public” is that a city’s efforts to do so end up ramping up the cost and complexity of development until the game is even more stacked in favor of the biggest projects and the deepest pockets. And that, in turn, even more dramatically raises the incentive to shout “Make them give something back!”
Let the community be heard in the abstract about what its zoning and development vision ought to be—let them hash it out in the zoning code and the comprehensive plan. But let’s not let each individual project become an existential battle. When we do, Goliath tends to stomp all over David.
Pointer from Scott Sumner.
I noticed the same phenomenon in Montgomery County. The county nominally has a “master plan” that governs development. But in practice the County Council gets involved in approving every project. We have the rule of men (and women), not the rule of law.
The net result is that we get none of the “livability” that supposedly comes from planning. All we get is a de facto requirement that to do real estate development around here you have to be a big-time Democratic donor. In the bootleggers-and-baptists model, the baptists are all the anti-development Progressives, who end up not really getting what they want, and the bootleggers are the big crony developers, who do.
Approving development processes by having elected officials decide on a case-by-case basis is unfair and harmful.
But as Glenn Reynolds would say, it does create opportunities for corruption and graft.
And of course requiring developers to add “affordable housing” manages to subsidize demand and restrict supply at the same time.
Essay backup: The myths surrounding health care policy
FYI: an event to watch
Jonathan Rauch, Yuval Levin, and I will be speaking at the AEI Thursday morning, December 12. The topic is “healing our political culture.”
Usually I am pretty modest about these things, but in this case I am going to guarantee that this event will be worth your attention. Make a note to watch it, or at least to check out the archive video.
For some background, you can read recent essays by me and by Jonathan. But the discussion will build from there.