4/17 to 5/13. As before, bold indicates a post that I think was really on target.
4/17. Who is going to want to dance? Looking at how fear of the virus will affect activities for a long time. I stand by this.
The individual, the state and the virus. My case for letting individuals make decisions about their conduct with respect to the virus. I stand by this, also.
Another interesting general update, including Sweden’s approach, a case cluster study in Germany with inferences about how the virus does and does not spread, and my first mention of the now-infamous Santa Clara study (I was skeptical right away).
I questioned the science behind social distancing.
maybe the science will say that for most of us, all the social distancing we need is to adopt the custom of bowing when we greet relatives, friends, and associates, rather than shaking hands or hugging or cheek-kissing. The science may say that it also is safer not to live in a nursing home, ride a subway, or spend a lot of time in an enclosed room with a person who might be sick, especially if they are coughing or singing. But the “6 foot rule” and frequent hand-washing and staying at home except for essential outings might turn out to be Bubbameise
4/18. In discussing the Santa Clara study, I offered an intuition of heavy in, heavy out.
A long post on the economic outlook. Also makes use of the two dimensions of essential/inessential and fragile/robust. Speculates that the stock market expects tech giants to feast on the carcasses of the small business sector.
4/19. Sooner or later, mild or severe. A really useful two-dimensional analysis that raises doubts about “flattening the curve.”
4/20. Lockdown socialism will collapse. Pungent, controversial, and I stand by it.
4/21. Steel-manning lockdown socialism.. Softer tone, but ultimately still very critical of the policy combination of lockdowns and bailouts.
4/22. Anti-fragile Arnold and Risky Randy. Thinking about how people with different risk preferences could get along.
Interesting general update, including Alberto Mingardi on “unintended authoritarianism.”
4/23. What I have come to believe. Makes nine claims. The only one that I might have to retract at some point is:
Testing does not work well. The problem is that even a low rate of false negatives and false positives can be very misleading, both for the individual and for policy makers. I won’t go through the arithmetic here (I did some in this post). Because of the way that seemingly small rates of false negatives and false positives undermine the efficacy of testing, I doubt that “test, track and trace” is the main way that Asian countries have contained the virus.
General update includes my snarky comments about Las Vegas and the ACLU. Also a link to John Kay, about which I wrote
Kay takes pains to point out that he is not an epidemiologist or a virologist. But I would give him the highest praise. He is an epistemologist.
4/24. The testing scam. A nice, intuitive explanation of how imperfect testing can be very misleading in a population where only a small percentage of people have the virus.
I was one of those FDA-bashers who thought that requiring certification for tests was peacetime bureaucratic thinking. I have come to realize that in order to be useful, the tests have to be highly accurate. If that is where FDA was coming from, I can now appreciate that.
Interesting general update, including Olivier Blanchard’s estimate of a 3 percent chance of a high-inflation scenario.
4/26. Epistemology.
there is a paradox of computer models. If you understand why a computer model gets the results that it does, then you do not need a computer model. And if you do not understand why it gets the results that it does, then you cannot trust the results. If you are using a computer to try to figure out causal structure, you are using it wrong.
4/27. Widespread looting.
The government produces pieces of paper, which it uses for looting. Households and businesses who are prudent and try to save for the future will be looted the most, through taxes and inflation.
But there are alternatives to looting. Like explicitly raising taxes or cutting other spending.
4/29. speculating on reasons for a slowdown in deaths.
4/30. General update notes that nursing homes were still being hit with outbreaks.
5/1. Micro experiments vs. macro experiments.
General update includes a link points to problems with CDC counts of ordinary flu deaths.
5/2. General update links to an essay pointing to the lack of science behind lockdowns.
5/3. Control without information. Spells out what I would have done differently at the CDC.
General update includes a link to an amateur’s persuasive analysis tying the initial spread of the virus to an automotive industry conference in Wuhan.
5/5. In my general update, I wrote
If you want to know why I am so adamant and ornery about the models, that is it. They remind me of macroeconometric models, which I am confident are misguided.
Seeing an NYT report of a model predicting 3000 deaths per day by June 1, I wrote
I would like to make the following bet with these modelers. I bet that the daily death toll in the last two weeks of May averages less than 2500. Whoever loses the bet has to shut up. If I lose, I stop blogging about the virus. If the modelers lose, then they have to stop reporting results from their models.
For the seven days ending May 22, the average deaths per day was less than 1500, and trending down. I am confident that I win this one.
5/6. Interesting general update, including a link to a paper saying that 42 percent of pandemic-related job losses are permanent.
5/7. Miscellaneous bitter thoughts, including why should not paying rent be considered more moral than not paying taxes?
5/9. Interesting general update, in which I comment
Fear of the virus has been transformed into Fear Of Others’ Liberty. So even though Vitamin D is protective, many people applaud the California governor for closing the beaches.
5/11. Economic reality and illusion.
You don’t have to tell me that financial markets are saying something different. I already know that. The markets believe that today’s economic slowdown is temporary and that today’s low inflation and interest rates will last a decade. My way of looking at the economy implies something close to the opposite.
Interesting general update, including my reaction to a speech by Boris Johnson.
Lots of power rhetoric. To my ear, he doesn’t trust the people to make good decisions. He only trusts them to sacrifice and obey rules.