This essay appeared almost three weeks ago.
just as the doc fix has become a yearly congressional ritual with no end in sight, it may be that many of the temporary policies of the fiscal cliff become permanent fixtures on our policy calendar.
And if the doc fix is any guide, that will have deleterious effects on both the budget and the economy. It will provide a convenient way to hide long-term spending commitments inside repeat extensions of temporary policies. And it will result in nagging economic uncertainty as the private sector endlessly worries that this year just might be the fluke year that Congress won’t act like it normally does and make a deal. At the same time, it will have the larger effect of distracting Congress from fixing the budget’s real long term problems by focusing legislators’ attention on an infinite loop of short-term problems. It’ll be the doc fix for everything—and the fiscal cliff forever.
Read the whole thing. Along with my Lenders and Spenders, it provides you with a pretty complete cynical picture.
If we think of the fiscal cliff bargaining game using game theory, then the unique Nash equilibrium would be ‘no deal’, since the commitment device isn’t strong enough to prevent either of the party from defecting onto their most preferred platform.
http://im-an-economist.blogspot.com/2012/12/cliffhanger-fiscal-clif-bargaining.html