1.14 overall, 1.18 excluding New York. Definitely not headed in the right direction. If I were deciding whether to lift economic restrictions based on “criteria” pertaining to the spread of the virus, then I would not.
I would lift economic restrictions based on a view that the externalities are not so large. If you open up your barber shop or restaurant, nobody has to patronize you unwillingly. There is no ventilator shortage. Hospitals seem to have unused capacity due to restrictions on caring for non-Covid patients.
Anti-fragile Arnold wears a mask and wants to see others wear masks. But he does not feel threatened by other people making choices to go to work or stores or parks or beaches.
Given the data reporting caveats you frequently mention, I think the right comparison is to one week ago… You posted 1.18 outside NY on April 23, so 1.14 looks like a (small) improvement to me.
Again, here is 7DDRR.
New Jersey appears to have had one of the biggest death increases but other indicators like positive tests and hospitalization suggest the situation may be improving. Essex County (near NYC) leads the state in deaths. Disaggregation might help to prevent localized phenomenon from overshadowing broader positive trends. https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020/04/nj-coronavirus-death-toll-surges-to-7228-with-118652-total-cases-more-than-450-new-deaths-announced-in-highest-single-day-increase.html
Tipping the country into the Greater Depression appears to have bought us R=1 for eight weeks. Now that the handcuffs are starting to come off, R is going back up. I hope that eight weeks of scientific research was worth the economic catastrophe to come.
Economic activity which carried risk of major illness, permanent lung damage, and death dropped off significantly. This would have happened with or without a lockdown.
The R values at https://rt.live/ don’t seem to be going up. Last week 8 states had R greater than one, Most recently (5/1) it is down to 5: NE, WY, KS, MN, and IA.
Not sure who has the best R calculations but RT.live does nicely graph trend data by state.
Interestingly, John Hinderaker’s 5/1 report on MN states “ Hauser asked what percentage of all decedents whose deaths are attributed to the virus had significant underlying conditions. Ehresmann had the number ready at hand: 99.24 percent“ and that about 80% of decedents were nursing home residents.
I get the impression MN is typical.
One would think that increasing the protection of the already isolated population at higher risk would be a higher priority than continuing to diddle with statewide lockdown.
PowerLine’s Johnson (not Hinderaker) also says:
“New deaths attributed to the virus ramped up to 24, for a new total of 343 to date. How many of the new decedents were residents of nursing homes? We had to wait for Malcolm to be asked before learning that the answer is 22 of the 24. Malcolm reported that six of the new decedents were in their 90’s, 7 in their 80’s, 8 in their 70’s, two in their 60’s, and one in his 40’s (“with significant underlying conditions”). The median age of all decedents remains 83.
https://www.thenewatlantis.com/publications/just-a-new-york-problem
A different take, nice map showing where covid is ranked as a cause of death by state.
“Ten states have so far been more lightly affected by the pandemic, with deaths peaking at rates only worse than those typical for car crashes or for flu and pneumonia. Six of these are Western states: Oregon, Utah, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, and South Dakota. The others are Vermont, Arkansas, Alaska, and Hawaii.
The odds of any particular person getting the virus are basically proportional to the percentage of the population which is contagious*. When other people spread the virus, your probability of catching it goes up. It’s fine to say that you prefer to let people choose, but don’t pretend that it doesn’t affect you.
*Times a factor for lifestyle. More if you’re a dentist; less if you’re a hermit.
Well, OT, but perhaps ASK will pick up:
A global rule: That every virology lab anywhere on the planet operate under complete and total transparency, open to unannounced international investigation at any time, and with complete, unhindered and open dialogue among international media, and social media, and lab employees.
Nations that do not comply with such obviously basic and minimum necessary requirements should lose Most Favored Nation trading status and be subject to rising trade sanctions.
All research for weaponization of viruses is forbidden, so there are no national security concerns with open labs.
We now know the huge economic costs of even a mild virus as global pandemic. Imagine if the next time is worse….
If you’re American, you don’t have to imagine. Just ask a nearby American Indian. If you can’t find an Indian, there’s your answer.