This site, which I use for updating, does not include the 4000 deaths that NYC added with a lag. The 3DDRR is at 1.30, but excluding New York it rose to 1.36, the highest since before Easter. For those of us who have been waiting for signs of a really dramatic slowdown of the spread of the virus. . .we are still waiting.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-military-sympt/coronavirus-clue-most-cases-aboard-u-s-aircraft-carrier-are-symptom-free-idUSKCN21Y2GB
The Navy’s testing of the entire 4,800-member crew of the aircraft carrier – which is about 94% complete – was an extraordinary move in a headline-grabbing case that has already led to the firing of the carrier’s captain and the resignation of the Navy’s top civilian official.
Roughly 60 percent of the over 600 sailors who tested positive so far have not shown symptoms of COVID-19, the potentially lethal respiratory disease caused by the coronavirus, the Navy says. The service did not speculate about how many might later develop symptoms or remain asymptomatic.
“With regard to COVID-19, we’re learning that stealth in the form of asymptomatic transmission is this adversary’s secret power,” said Rear Admiral Bruce Gillingham, surgeon general of the Navy.
The figure is higher than the 25% to 50% range offered on April 5 by Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and a member of President Donald Trump’s coronavirus task force.
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A clue.
End the lockdowns.
Not until the infallible 3DDRR v4.3 tells us so. On the upside, I think that version 5.0 will be released tomorrow with some major bug fixes, performance enhancements and squashes some crashes that certain users were experiencing.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-04-16/as-coronavirus-cases-rise-doctors-learn-more-about-treatment?srnd=premium
Hopeful Coronavirus News: Doctors Learn More About Treatment
The medical community is learning a lot, fast, and sharing information across borders.
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Bots alive!
Search bot learned this stuff quickly and are autonomously organizing the research with the intent of saving our lives. So do no ever accuse the singularity of killing humans, it loves us.
Like a lot of the COVID data we are getting, the death reporting leaves something to be desired.
What states should be doing (and the COVID Tracking Project should really be pushing for this) is telling us on which days the deaths occurred. As far as I can tell, the number of new deaths reported each day by the states (and aggregated by the Tracking Project) is not the number of people who died the prior day. It is the difference between total deaths on Day X and Day X+1. So if deaths occurred on Day X minus 5 isn’t coded as a COVID death until Day X+1, it shows up in the death count for Day X+1.
If you look at the NYC data site (https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page), they do try to assign COVID deaths to the actual date of death. You can see that deaths have been declining since April 7. BUT, they don’t really tell us when they’ve gone back in time to add deaths to prior days. And the NYC site tells us there is a difference of over 1,000 between what the state is reporting as confirmed deaths for NYC (8,893) and what NYC itself currently reports as total deaths (7,563). What isn’t clear is whether NYC is eventually going to add the 1,300 difference in total deaths to their chart, and if they do so, what days they will change.
(Note all of this is separate from the issue of “probable” COVID deaths; as far as I can tell NY is tracking “confirmed” and “probable” separately)
The other bizarre thing about NYC’s data is that they report 30,903 as hospitalized. That has to be a cumulative number, because at the NY press conference today Cuomo reported that about 17,000 are hospitalized in all of New York.
The states also aren’t uniform in how they report the number of people hospitalized currently. T
That would be very useful information to track.
Here’s a good illustration of this effect, with Swedish data: https://adamaltmejd.se/covid/
There’s considerable delay in when the deaths occur and when they are reported as new. If you just look at the “new” number each day, you will get thrown off by all of these lags, which may not be uniform.
The 3DDRR will decrease to 1.15 by May 1 if the number of new daily deaths increases by 2% each day. Decreasing 3DDRR from 1.30 to 1.15 is sort of a slowdown in the spread of the virus because it does take us half way to 1.0 in only the next 15 days. Unfortunately it also means new daily deaths is increasing 137,640% per year.
I prefer the percentage change in new daily deaths. Of course it’s noisy but a 3 day or 7 day moving average smooths it nicely.
7 day moving average
04/03/20 19.3%
04/04/20 18.9%
04/05/20 15.7%
04/06/20 14.1%
04/07/20 15.0%
04/08/20 12.6%
04/09/20 10.2%
04/10/20 10.3%
04/11/20 7.0%
04/12/20 6.6%
04/13/20 5.6%
04/14/20 4.7%
04/15/20 6.1%
04/16/20 4.2%
Even better: 3DDRR of 1.14 by May 1.
Yes, that is a noisy number. And if it goes from 2000 to 1500 and back again, you get -25 % followed by 33 %, which averages to 8 percent, when it’s actually 0.
But my main complaint is that it looks a lot less optimistic if you exclude NY.
Here’s my 3DDRR table with new deaths growing 2% daily.
Zeros are place holders.
Please let me know if it’s wrong.
cum death new death 3 day ratio of cum death
04/16/20 30296 2136 0
04/17/20 32475 2179 0
04/18/20 34697 2222 0
04/19/20 36964 2267 1.22
04/20/20 39276 2312 1.21
04/21/20 41634 2358 1.20
04/22/20 44040 2405 1.19
04/23/20 46493 2454 1.18
04/24/20 48996 2503 1.18
04/25/20 51549 2553 1.17
04/26/20 54152 2604 1.16
04/27/20 56808 2656 1.16
04/28/20 59517 2709 1.15
04/29/20 62280 2763 1.15
04/30/20 65099 2818 1.15
05/01/20 67974 2875 1.14