Paul Romer vs. Perry Bacon, Jr.

The latter wrote,

with Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh and Christine Blasey Ford set to testify before the Senate Judiciary Committee this week and new allegations coming out against Kavanaugh on Sunday, it’s worth noting that the biggest divide is not between men and women on these issues, but between Democrats and Republicans.

Romer writes,

The best one can say about this comparison is that it is careless. Its measure of the partisan divide suffers from an obvious upward bias relative to the measure of the gender gap because it excludes the responses of independents. Leaving out these centrists will automatically increase the difference between the two groups that remain. The effect is big because there are lots of independents. For this particular poll and in round numbers, 600 of the 1500 respondents do not provide a party affiliation.

Pointer from Tyler Cowen.

I clicked through to the Huffpost poll, taken several days prior the hearing, which asked whether the allegation against Kavanaugh is credible.

Men answered it 28-34, with the 28 percent saying yes, and 34 percent saying no. The rest did not want to commit to an opinion.
With women, it was 25-23.

Among Democrats, it was 53-8.
Among Republicans, it was 4-60.
Among independents, it was 19-25.

But this isn’t the poll result that Romer uses to make his point. Instead he uses a question that asks generically about the importance of protecting the accused’s rights or the victim’s rights.

Among Democrats, it was 11-76
Among Republicans, it was 20-54.
Among independents, it was 14-53

This is a much smaller partisan gap to begin with. In every group, the majority stresses the victim’s rights.

To me, the poll result about the credibility of the accusation is the one that stands out. It just screams “motivated reasoning.” I’m sorry to have to disagree with Romer, but if you focus on that poll result, there can be no escaping the conclusion that partisanship is the main driver.

1 thought on “Paul Romer vs. Perry Bacon, Jr.

  1. The allegation is not believable, is not credible. 0 evidence other than a single partial memory (no real time, no real place).

    But the sincerity of Ford as a witness was very credible. I now believe she has a false memory, so she believes her own false story.

    I’m reminded of this Bladerunner scene (she doesn’t know):
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?reload=9&v=yWPyRSURYFQ

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