The 3DDRR held steady at 1.26
I think a lot of people have been waiting for the rest of the country to look like New York. At this point, it does not look like that is going to happen. I will speculate more on this tomorrow. As usual you can see the data on this spreadsheet.
“I think a lot of people have been waiting for the rest of the country to look like New York. At this point, it does not look like that is going to happen.”
Instead of saying that “a lot of people” were expecting the rest of the country to resemble NY at this point, it might be more accurate to say that that was what the “true believers” were expecting.
Ironically, they believed in the models with a near religious devotion( despite the fact that they were demonstrably unproven).
Looking at the data, only New Jersey looks likely to be as bad as New York, but the fact is it isn’t New York state or New Jersey- it is the New York City metropolitan area that has done the worse with the virus. The parts of Connecticut that are bad are directly connected by the commuter trains.
Note that NYC is adding 3,778 “probable” deaths to its death count: https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1250171567000215553
These will also show up as “new” deaths in the various trackers tomorrow.
+1.
Calls into question again whether any statistics out there are of any value at all: https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2020/04/new_york_city_adds_4000_to_its_wuhan_virus_dead_by_recategorizing_deaths.html
Once again, the key is to compare the overall death rate to the trend over the last several years.
It’s reasonable to presume that all deaths above two standard deviations from the usual volatility are due to the virus.
It doesn’t matter what DeBlasio or anyone else does with regards to categorization if you use that approach, and if there is shenanigans, it will probably be revealed by doing the above comparison, because deaths from most other unrelated causes would suddenly drop. Heart attacks, cancer, etc.
Of course “cause of death” is not so simple, and multiple factors may contribute, and maybe there really are fewer deaths primarily related to other causes, because cv19 pushed frail people over the edge before their other frailties got them. We may be able to tease that out later too though.
FYI the 7DDRR has been smoothly and monotonically decreasing since 3/30 from roughly 6 to around 2. I think there are problems with the data collection that cause different days of the week to be different and using the 7 day fixes that.
Yep, 7DDRR is smoother. Even the 3 day averaging doesn’t smooth it much more. Try it out.
If there is a second ex-NY peak, we’ll know in about 2-3 weeks, but my sense is that everywhere in the US is off the exponential part of the curve by now, so hopefully not too bad.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16sIvGecnTXsmQ2x0rb3fypYUv3YHV1oUhuy2-0J6K1s/edit#gid=0
7DDRR
Very nice, Dave.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ny-fed-head-trader-scale-our-asset-purchases-has-been-unparalleled
Head of Fed trading desk says:
Logan than explain why the Fed decided it was in America’s best interest to nationalize the capital markets, saying that “supporting smooth market functioning does not mean restoring every aspect of market functioning to its level before the coronavirus crisis. Some aspects of liquidity—especially aspects related to transactions costs and market depth—are importantly affected by fundamental factors such as how the current extraordinary uncertainty about the economic outlook influences trading behavior. These aspects of market functioning may not return all the way to pre-crisis levels for some time, even as our purchases slow.”
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She is gently explaining that the accounting identity is diverging.
There is no Godot to set prices, and no return path. Thus, the outcome is a meeting of the elders, a new Fed contract.
Why divergance?
Look at excess reserves and treasuries held. Currently the message is:
The government made one humongous loan, and the reserve banks mader one humongous deposit. There is no structure, it is two traders, uncle sam and uncle banker. That is an over the counter trade, there is no need for the Fed to run a deposit to loans bank. The Fed remains an accountant, treasury is running the bank, the return path is blocked. The accounting identity can diverge, and generally does once a generation.
If the death rate peaked around the end of March and infections take roughly a month to result in death would it be a good ballpark estimate that the infection rate peaked around the end of February? If so, that might implicate self-social-distancing as a major factor in the decline since that was around a month before shelter in place declarations began.