Untrustworthy numbers. I worry that because of Easter we are seeing a lag in reporting of deaths, which will show up on Monday or Tuesday. But for what it’s worth the overall 3DDRR and the 3DDRRxNY were both at 1.34 today. For historical data on 3DDRR, see Aaron Lindsey’s spreadsheet.
Flying blind again? (Why do is model any better than all of the other ones?)
“When you have a model involving exponential growth, if you make a small mistake in the base numbers, you end up with a final number that could be off 10-fold, 30-fold, even 50-fold,”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-3La80T72y8
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/without-mass-testing-were-flying-blind-through-this-crisis/2020/04/09/bf61e178-7a9b-11ea-a130-df573469f094_story.html
I think you are right- there is a regular weekend effect here and in Europe, it today was down everywhere, so add a big holiday effect on top.
There will be catchup numbers added on top of Monday and Tuesday.
I like to look at pictures, so I plot cumulative cases and cumulative deaths on a log scale. I don’t see any information in the death scale that isn’t in the case scale, except five to seven days late. Call it six days. Just for fun, I’ll go out on a limb and predict that your nmber on April 18 will be 1.2
The whole point of using the death rate is that I don’t trust the data on cases. I believe and hope that your guess is way too high. Something like 1.13 or lower is what I expect by then
The missing data is now the mild symptomatic infection rate, the percentage of us who do not have a severe reaction to the virus. This is the data that the docs are too swamped to gather, we do not have good numbers. Why would some of handle this normally without sever reaction?
I here the total infection rates in NYC might be 20%, that is what the cops suffer. How many of those cops suffered very mild symptoms and why did some have severe reactions? We need to look at those cops more closely, clinically and find differences, if any. Was i really dosage related?
If 85% handle the virus just fine, then we already have a vaccine, and the severely reactive patients may have an allergy to the virus from some other path, not related to anti-body production. I have never heard of allergies cured by vaccine. I dunno.
https://abc7ny.com/coronavirus-nyc-update-corona-virus-cases/6092666/
Coronavirus News: More than 600 NYPD officers back at work after positive COVID-19 tests
—-
Almost 20%, maybe. They had about 15 deaths. Would we have these 600 back at work so soon if they suffered respiratory stress and were in hospital? No, they were out two weeks until this virus was gone, in bed with the sniffles. A vaccine can hardly outpeform a week watching soap operas in bed.
Why did the 15 cops end up dying in ICU? They had a severe allergicr eaction I call itt, docs have the technical thing about a proliferation of macrophages. These 15 cops would not be saved by a vaccine, they would be save by a specific treatment against that macrophage outburst, an allergy treatment. We may be facing a bimodal distribution, a significant portion of the population with a slight difference in antibody production. In that case we have separable channels, we are not channel packing the larger group, a much simpler problem.
I am overly optimistic, but in the latter case, the case that we are dealing with specific, small proportions who suffer the macrophage burst, then we have a textbook, one of the docs cracked this and wrote the text book.
The text book tells us course of action for disease under treatment, that defines the hospital channel rate for treating this. Half the adaption and learning efforts done.
At least two or three testbooks on this case need to be written, PSST textbooks.
Take this further as a hospital value chain, they restrict the flower of patients having the macrophage problem, announce a rate, to a fixed bound. Thus each member of the population segments out, on its own, onto those who have the reaction, and they get pre-tested at allergy clinic, they are forewarned and know the queue length through the channel. They can hedge the cost. PSST is value chain management, there are no complete markets, only chaos organized and contained.
If actual new daily infections start to drop (which happens 2-4 weeks before deaths start to drop), does that prove R is less than one at that time?
538 has an explanation of the difficulties of modeling the pandemic.