Today, the overall 3DDRR continued to edge down, to 1.40, and outside of New York it declined from 1.47 to 1.42
Recall the original post on the 3DDRR.
It would be nice to see, say, 1.5 by April 7, 1.3 by April 10, 1.1 by April 13, and 1.002 from April 16 on. That would raise April 4ths total deaths of 8314 to 17,834 (exactly, right?) on April 13
Well, we missed those goals by quite a bit, and as of April 11 deaths stood at 20339. As of April 6, we were doing nicely at 1.53, and it looked like we were on track to hit 1.50 by April 7. But that did not happen.
What I would like to see over the next week is a sharp drop in the New York 3DDRR without a big surge in other places.
You are not that far off, a 1.3 vs a 1.4 for Apr 10. I allow for the unknown parameters in your problem and accept some deviation.
The US has had the Vietnam War, the War on Poverty, the War on Drugs, the War on Terror.
Let us add to the roll call, the War on COVID-19.
Don’t know that you will get a big drop in New York- just look at Italy the last 3 weeks. We have no evidence that the virus isn’t still spreading in New York and New Jersey- they just keep testing the same number of people every day with roughly the same number of positive.
https://www.uab.edu/reporter/know-more/publications/item/8909-here-s-a-playbook-for-stopping-deadly-cytokine-storm-syndrome
The good news is that “we now have a variety of therapeutic options to treat cytokine storm syndrome,” Cron said. “But especially a lot of the older physicians don’t know what this is.” That was one of Cron’s primary motivating factors in writing his book, he said. “Cytokine Storm Syndrome” offers detailed descriptions of symptoms and clinical presentations, along with the latest treatments and care regimens. “The sooner you recognize it, the better the outcomes,” Cron said. “If we can get people to diagnose this in the ER and the ICU, that would be ideal.”
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If we can deal with this then we have the common cold, almost.
A cheap, simple test, widely available at most hospitals in the United States and worldwide, can help diagnose cytokine storm syndrome, Cron said. “A protein called serum ferritin tends to get very high in this disorder,” he said. “If you are sick enough to be in a hospital and you have a fever, you should get a serum ferritin. It typically comes back in less than 24 hours and almost every hospital can do it, and if it’s high you can work them up for cytokine storm syndrome.”
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From the same report. The syndrome is common to a lot of infections,k it is the immune system gone wild with the macrophages, the big eater white blood cells. inflammation process. Do this test, then
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The doctors treated her with anakinra, a cytokine-targeting therapy that was approved to treat the autoimmune disease rheumatoid arthritis.
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Also from the report.
Somewhere in that report was mentioned that 15% of us have a genome mutation that makes us susceptible.
Follow this. That means we need an allergy test to find out who are susceptible, a tissue culture from the patient subject to the virus. Note that on the record and the doctor has a prior notice on a wide variety of these corona.
You’ll see surges in some other places through the end of April, I think.
I read that New York state now has more per capita covid deaths than Italy, by the way (although there is some evidence that Italy is under counting). Also, more covid deaths in just a few weeks in NY than annual flu deaths in several recent years. More info here.